Sharing the same card, both Bill Algeo and Herbert Burns saw their opponent bow out due to injuries. Fortunately, being that they are both Featherweights, the UFC was able to keep them on the card by pairing them up. Coming off a victory over Joanderson Brito, Algeo will look to buck a pattern of wins and losses that have kept him from a win streak since 2018-2019. Having fought several names thus far in the division, Algeo has certainly gained a lot of experience in only four fights inside the octagon. Meanwhile, Burns returns to the octagon for the first time since losing to Daniel Pineda in August of 2020. Having faced a litany of injuries that caused Burns to pull out of two fights, it should be interesting to see if the Brazilian can get back on track.
Despite not originally being paired up, this is an excellent fight. Algeo is a well rounded fighter, who’s strength’s lie more so in his grappling. Being a BJJ black belt and having a collegiate wrestling background, Algeo’s ground skills have seen him win six of his fifteen victories via submission. No slouch on the feet, Algeo is an active striker with some serious kickboxing skills. The only knock on Algeo comes within his defense. Sporting iffy takedown and striking defense, Algeo is susceptible to being hit often and taken down with little resistance. To his credit however, with slick grappling abilities and solid cardio, Algeo does a great job reversing position. Very likely to test Algeo’s grappling is Burns. Brother of Gilbert Burns, the Brazilian is a ground specialist. Known for his excellent grappling, Burns has shown a knack for taking the back with ease and submitting opponents. With eight of his eleven wins coming via submission, Burns is not someone you’d want to be tangled up with on the mat.
A very tricky fight to call, I’m going to go with Algeo. While Burns should get this fight to the ground, and may even threaten a submission, Algeo has the grappling abilities to escape danger. Having not been caught via a submission since 2014, which was early in his career, there is some assurance that he can drag this fight into deep waters. Given Algeo’s cardio and high output striking, I believe he can takeover as this fight wanes. Although Burns has only been stopped once, I’m going on a limb here and saying Algeo wins via TKO.
A pivotal clash takes place in the Light Heavyweight division, as Dustin Jacoby takes on Da Un Jung. Since returning to mixed martial arts in 2019, Jacoby has gone 7-0-1. With five of those wins coming inside the octagon, Jacoby has catapulted himself into the division’s top fifteen. Impressive for a guy who was once released by the UFC and left the sport for four years to kickbox. Meanwhile, Jung comes into this fight having not tasted defeat in over six years. Going 14-0-1 in his last fifteen fights, with four of those wins coming in the UFC, Jung has proven that he is someone to be reckon with. A victory away from being ranked, Jung has an opportunity here to show he belongs among the division’s best.
Despite being buried on the preliminary card, this is an excellent fight. Jacoby is a kickboxer, who’s very active and always trying to score points. Backed by excellent cardio, Jacoby can and will push the pace. Not necessarily a knockout artist, Jacoby looks to swarm opponents with volume to score his finishes. Sporting a 58% takedown defense, Jacoby is susceptible to being taken down. However, he does a good job of getting back to the feet. Looking to test that part of Jacoby’s abilities is Jung, who in addition to being a solid striker, has shown that he can wrestle. Landing eight takedowns against William Knight in a winning effort back in 2021, perhaps Jung mixes up his attack knowing that Jacoby is most vulnerable on the ground.
In what I expect to be a fun fight, I’m backing Jung. While this prediction may bite me, knowing that Jacoby’s cardio could play a difference in the later rounds, I believe that Jung can mix in a few takedowns to secure some rounds. Knowing that Jung’s striking is excellent too, as well as the fact that he’s got the power edge, I’m certain he can also win this fight on the feet too. With that said, I predict that Jung will win via decision.
A potential pink-slip fight comes in the Welterweight division, as Dwight Grant takes on Dustin Stoltzfus. A loser of two straight and three of the last four, Grant comes into this fight needing to right the ship. Having had a hard time finding his footing inside the octagon, only winning three of his seven fights with the promotion, Grant’s tenure with the UFC could be determined by this fight. Meanwhile, Stoltzfus urgently needs a victory. A loser of three straight, all of which have come in the UFC, Stoltzfus has been afforded a rare opportunity to not make the same mistake a fourth time.
This is good matchmaking, as one of these gentleman need to get their careers back on track. Obviously Stoltzfus is down worse, but I don’t think Grant is any safer to remain on the roster with another loss. A striker with excellent power, Grant has made a living off sending foes into the shadow realm. However, his hesitancy to throw strikes has been a huge crux in his career. In seven UFC fights, Grant’s highest significant strike total was 49. Add in the fact that he has been involved in four split decisions in those seven fights, and it’s evident why he hasn’t had much success thus far inside the octagon. As for Stoltzfus, he’s mainly a grappler. A good one at that, who quite frankly, has been fed to three grappling wolves during his UFC tenure. Known to have good wrestling and excellent submissions, Stoltzfus may finally get to showcase his skills against someone who isn’t a BJJ wizard.
Although this fight is a bit of a crapshoot, I favor Stoltzfus to notch his first UFC victory. Knowing Grant’s hesitancy on the feet and the fact that Stoltzfus has never been stopped due to strikes, I’m not overly concerned when these two strike. My concern however is if Stoltzfus can get this fight to mat. Seeing how Grant has been taken down in four of his last seven fights, there seems to be an opening. A small one though perhaps, as only once in those four, has Grant been taken down more than once. Regardless, knowing Stoltzfus needs a win and given his wrestling being key, I like his chances. So with that said, I predict that Stoltzfus wins via decision.
We have a clash in the Welterweight division, as Phillip Rowe takes on Abubakar Nurmagomedov. Since dropping his UFC debut, Rowe has rattled off two straight stoppage victories. Still sporting a 100% finishing rate, if one thing is certain, Rowe doesn’t look for the judges to decide his fate. Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov comes into this fight off his first UFC victory over Jared Gooden. Seeing how his UFC debut was unsuccessful and he was just 1-2-1 in his four fights prior to the win, to say this was a much a needed victory would be an understatement.
After seeing what Rowe has done in back-to-back fights on the feet, I’m not sure if Nurmagomedov is going to engage much standing. Although adept to strike and having proven to throw solid combinations amongst his high activity, Nurmagomedov’s strength is his wrestling and grappling. Having waited until round three in his last fight to show that strength, perhaps Nurmagomedov will build off that in this fight. He’ll need to, as Rowe is a powerful kickboxer, who is active on the feet. While Rowe isn’t much of a wrestler, he seems to trust his grappling abilities by pulling guard often. With four submissions in nine victories, perhaps Rowe likes to get a feel for what he is dealing with on the ground.
Close as this fight might be, I’m going to side with Rowe. Between his power on the feet and his submission abilities, he offers up a sense of danger wherever this fight goes. Nurmagomedov may be well rounded, but seeing him get submitted in his two of his last five fights, perhaps has led him away from grappling as much. Not that his striking can’t get the job done, I just believe that Rowe’s power and activity will lead to more damage. A top priority among judges scoring the fight. So with that said, I predict that Rowe will win via decision.
The curtain jerker comes in the Women’s Strawweight division, as former title challenger Jessica Penne takes on newcomer Emily Ducote. Since returning to the octagon after a lengthy suspension, Penne, in the midst of seven fight cancellations, has rattled off two consecutive wins. Number fourteen in the Strawweight rankings, Penne at 39 years old, comes into this fight presumably on her last title run. Meanwhile, after fighting for the likes of Bellator and Invicta FC, Ducote will try and test her metal with the best in the UFC. Currently a winner of three straight, two of which came inside the distance, Ducote is coming into her UFC debut with excellent momentum.
The last seven years have been rough for Penne. After losing three straight fights, Penne was hit with a four-year ban (reduced to 20 months), after a second drug test infraction with USADA. Upon her return, she has faced seven fight cancellations. Throughout all that, she won her first fight in over six years and followed that up with a submission victory over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. A known grappler, who’s lengthy and has excellent submissions, Penne is a dangerous fighter to grapple with. On the feet is a different story, as she is vulnerable to getting pieced up. However, to Penne’s credit, her scrappiness and toughness have aided her in edging out fights. Maybe not the best strategy in this particular fight though, as Ducote has some legitimate power in her hands. An excellent signing by the UFC, the former collegiate wrestler has the abilities and finishing prowess that will give a lot of Strawweight’s fits. A name to watch, the former Invicta FC Champion has a huge opportunity to crack the division’s top fifteen with only one victory.
A fun fight to open the card, I believe that Ducote will prevail in her UFC debut. While I am concerned about the size and grappling of Penne, her window of opportunity has usually come early in the fight. Sporting a 20% takedown accuracy in the UFC, Penne has scored five takedowns in fourteen attempts in round one. After that, she has only landed two takedowns in twenty-one attempts. In brief, as long as Ducote can avoid danger in round one, her striking and power will take over the fight. In the end, I foresee a knockout victory for Ducote.
Rafael dos Anjos (31-13, 20-11 UFC) – 15 stoppage victories (5 T/KO, 10 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via decision – Won 2 straight – 14-3 when landing a takedown
– 3 of 13 losses via stoppage (3 T/KO) – 16-10 in decisions – 5-6 when absorbing 56 or more strikes
Rafael Fiziev (11-1, 5-1 UFC)
– 8 stoppage victories (7 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 6 first round finishes – Won 5 straight – 5-0 when landing 21 strikes or more
– Only loss via T/KO
Caio Borralho (11-1, 1-0 UFC) – 7 stoppage victories (4 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 4 of the last 5 wins came via decision – Won 10 Straight – Unbeaten for nearly 7 years
– Never been Stopped
Armen Petrosyan (7-1, 1-0 UFC)
– All 6 stoppage victories via T/KO – 3 first round finishes – Won 3 straight
– Lone loss via T/KO – Less than 4 years as a professional
Douglas Silva de Andrade (28-4, 6-4 UFC) – 22 stoppage victories (20 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via stoppage – Won 2 Straight – 5-1 when landing 37 or more strikes
– 2 of 4 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 2-3 in the last 5 fights
Said Nurmagomedov (15-2, 4-1 UFC) – 8 stoppage victories (4 T/KO, 4 Sub) – Last 3 wins came via stoppage – Won 9 of the last 10 – 4-0 when absorbing less than 33 strikes
– Never been stopped – 2-1 in the last 3 fights
Jared Vanderaa (12-8, 1-4 UFC) – 10 stoppage victories (7 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 6 first round finishes – 2 of the last 3 wins came via decision
– 5 of 8 losses via stoppage (2 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Lost 3 straight – 0-2 when taken down
Chase Sherman (15-10, 3-9 UFC) – 14 stoppage victories via T/KO – 12 first round finishes – 3 of the last 4 wins came in round one
– 6 of 10 losses via stoppage (4 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Lost 4 straight – 1-2 in decisions – 0-5 when absorbing 76 strikes or more
Michael Johnson (20-17, 12-13 UFC) – 11 stoppage victories (9 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 2 of the last 3 wins came via decision – 7-2 when landing a takedown
– 11 of 17 losses via stoppage (2 T/KO, 9 Sub) – 1-4 in last 5 – 2-7 when taken down
Jamie Mullarkey (14-5, 2-3 UFC) – 13 stoppage victories (10 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 7 first round finishes – Last 6 wins via T/KO – 2-0 when absorbing less than 30 strikes
– 3 of 5 losses via stoppage via T/KO – 1-2 in decisions – 0-3 when absorbing 47 or more strikes
Aiemann Zahabi (8-2, 2-2 UFC) – 7 stoppage victories (5 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 7 first round finishes – 4 of the last 5 wins came via knockout – 2-0 when landing a knockdown
– Stopped once via knockout – 2-3 in the last 3 fights
Ricky Turcios (11-2, 1-0 UFC) – 4 stoppage victories (3 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 3 of the last 5 wins came via stoppage – Won 2 straight
– Stopped once via T/KO – 3-2 in the last 5 fights
Antonina Shevchenko (9-4, 3-4 UFC) – 4 stoppage victories (3 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via stoppage – 5-2 in decisions – 2-0 when landing a takedown
– 2 of 4 losses came via stoppage (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 2-4 in the last 6 fights – 1-4 when being taken down
Cortney Casey (10-9, 6-8 UFC)
– 7 stoppage victories (3 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via decision – 3-1 when landing 89 or more strikes
– 2 of 9 losses came via stoppage (2 Sub) – 3-5 in the last 8 fights – 1-5 when absorbing 61 or more strikes
Cody Brundage (7-2, 1-1 UFC) – 6 stoppage victories (3 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 3 wins via submission – 2-1 in the last 3 fights
– Stopped once via T/KO – 2-2 in the last 4 fights
Tresean Gore (3-1, 0-1 UFC) – 2 stoppage victories (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via stoppage
– Never been stopped – Only 4 professional fights
David Onama (9-1, 1-1 UFC) – All 9 wins via stoppage (6 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 6 first round finishes – Last 3 wins via T/KO
– Never been stopped – 1-1 in the last 2 fights
Garrett Armfield (8-2, 0-0 UFC) – 7 stoppage victories( 5 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 6 first round finishes – 3 of the last 4 wins via T/KO – Won 3 straight
– Stopped once via Sub
Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-3, 3-3 UFC) – 6 stoppage victories via T/KO – Last 2 wins came via T/KO – 2-1 when landing 50 strikes
– 2 of 3 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Lost 2 straight – 2-2 when taken down
Karl Roberson (9-5, 4-5 UFC) – 6 stoppage victories (2 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 2 of the last 3 wins came via decision – 3-0 when landing a takedown – 3-0 in decisions
– Stopped in all 5 losses (1 T/KO, 4 Sub) – Lost 3 straight
Ronnie Lawrence (8-1, 2-0 UFC)
– 4 stoppage victories via T/KO – 3 of the last 4 wins came via decision – Won 5 straight – 2-0 when landing 6 or more takedowns
– Never been Stopped
Saidyokub Kakhramonov (9-2, 1-0 UFC) – 7 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 5 first round finishes – Last 4 wins came via stoppage – Won 3 straight
David Onama ($9,300) – The highest priced fighter on the slate, Onama is a worthy pick. Well rounded and with a 100% finishing rate, the Ugandan is a sure bet to rack up the points. Fighting a familiar foe, who comes into this on short notice and up a weight class, the ingredients are ripe for Onama to show out in this spot.
Jamie Mullarkey ($9,100) – While the price tag is a tad high, Mullarkey is a relentless fighter, who will mix up his attack and score finishes. Averaging 118.25 in victory, with a low of 109, the floor for Mullarkey is safe. Add in the fact that he is fighting Michael Johnson, who has won four of his last thirteen fights, and I’m certainly riding with the Aussie in this fight.
8kRange
Caio Borralho ($8,900) – The Brazilian may be a bit too expensive for my taste, but there is no doubting that his grappling gives him an advantage over Armen Petrosyan. My only concern is whether he will land enough strikes or score a submission finish. Two aspects that he did not do in his last fight, leading to an under 80 point performance.
Ricky Turcios ($8,800) – If anything is certain about Turcios, it’s that the man is a workhorse. Always active, Turcios is capable of landing over 100 strikes and landing a few takedowns every fight. A recipe that makes for big points and a very happy owner.
Ronnie Lawrence ($8,400) – Leading the card in career points, average points in victory and the lowest point total in victory, Lawrence is going to be a very popular play. A wrestler by trade, in two fights, Lawrence has landed 14 takedowns. Which alone is worth 70 points. At this price tag, it’s hard to fade the man – other than the fact that everyone and their grandmother is playing him.
Tresean Gore ($8,300) – He may lack the experience and his UFC debut wasn’t the greatest, but the man is refined and powerful. Given Gore’s wrestling and seemingly Cody Brundage’s path to victory being reliant on taking Gore down, I’d say Brundage could be in some trouble. Especially considering his vulnerability is standing.
Kennedy Nzechukwu ($8,200) – Despite lacking in several categories, Nzechukwu is someone I’m eyeballing. With a four inch height and nine inch reach advantage, and against a former Middleweight in Karl Roberson, Nzechukwu will look like goliath in the octagon. Throw in the fact that Roberson is a striker and Nzechukwu doesn’t have to worry about takedowns, and I smell some big striking totals and a good chance for a knockout victory.
7k and Under Range
Saidyokub Kakhramonov ($7,800) – Despite having Ronnie Lawrence up there as a play, Kakhramonov is a solid pivot. A stone cold finisher, who is well adept wherever the fight goes, Kakhramonov isn’t going to make it easy for Lawrence to wrestle. With good takedown defense, scrambling ability, grappling and submissions, Kakhramonov may even neautralize Lawrence. If so, on the feet, the power of Kakhramonov will show true.
Rafael dos Anjos ($7,200) – The former Champion may be the most popular play aside from Ronnie Lawrence. For good reason too, as in relation to the card is 6th in career points, 4th in average points scored in victory and 1st in highest points scored in a fight. Throw in the fact that his durability and gas tank are made for five rounds, whereas Fiziev is an unknown past three, and this price tag for dos Anjos is a no brainer.
Fades
Rafael Fiziev ($9,000) – A solid fighter, but statistically not someone known to rack up the points, I’m personally not willing to shell out 9k for Fiziev. Against a durable Rafael dos Anjos, who is made for five rounds too, it seems very risky to side with this half of the main event. Averaging a mere 77.94 in victory, Fiziev ranks in the bottom four on the card.
Antonina Shevchenko ($8,700) – If there is one positive about Shevchenko, it’s that she is facing a fellow striker. Other than that, the average career points of 53.3 and the average points in victory of 92.87, isn’t enticing me to dish out 8.7k.
Karl Roberson ($8,000) – Roberson has lost three straight and five of his last eight fights. Jumping up to Light Heavyweight, a division in which he is 3-3 in, I have very little faith that his fortunes will change. Especially given his low output and against someone in Kennedy Nzechukwu, who only has a minor four inch height and nine inch reach advantage.
155 lbs.: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev – The main event comes in the Lightweight division, as Rafael dos Anjos takes on Rafael Fiziev. Returning to the division he once conquered, dos Anjos has rattled off back-to-back wins. Currently ranked seventh, the former Champion is inching closer and closer to a title shot. With a victory over a surging Fiziev, dos Anjos could realistically find himself in a number one contender’s fight next. Meanwhile, Fiziev comes into this fight on a five-fight win streak. Having rattled off four straight bonuses to go along with the wins, Fiziev is becoming must watch tv. Co-headlining his first main event, the tenth ranked Lightweight has a chance to knock off a former Champion and firmly put himself in the title mix.
Despite this being the third attempt to pair these two up, it’s a blessing that we get to finally see it. A former champion for a reason, dos Anjos is one of the most well rounded fighters on the roster. Backed by an endless gas tank, dos Anjos is very active. Whether it’s on the feet or wrestling, dos Anjos is always working to score points. Extremely durable, the Brazilian has only been stopped three times in forty-four fights. Looking to challenge that durability is Fiziev. A dynamic striking, who is precise and powerful, Fiziev can put away anyone. Excellent in distance management, Fiziev often chops down opponents with leg kicks and picks them apart on the outside. In brief, he’s a handful to deal with on the feet. Not easy to takedown either, in six UFC fights, Fiziev has shrugged off twenty-two of twenty-three takedown attempts. The only vulnerability the Kyrgyz has shown is gas tank may be problematic.
As for a prediction, I have dos Anjos winning. In what I expect to be a barnburner, I’m banking on the well rounded and cardio machine dos Anjos to take Fiziev into deep waters. Knowing the Kyrgyz may slow down the later the fight goes, dos Anjos should see his game shine in the later rounds. I believe he will even penetrate the stout takedown defense of Fiziev. In the end, I predict that dos Anjos outlasts Fiziev, winning via decision – his thirteenth in the UFC, which would tie him with Neil Magny for the most all-time with the promotion.
185 lbs.: Caio Borralho vs. Armen Petrosyan – The co-main event comes in the Middleweight division, as Caio Borralho takes on Armen Petrosyan. Coming off a successful UFC debut, Borralho finds himself featured in a rare opportunity. A winner of ten straight, the Brazilian with an impressive performance, could very well see himself fast-tracked into fighting a big name next. Meanwhile, Petrosyan too comes into this fight with a huge opportunity. With all eyes on him and the chance to create buzz, the Armenian will look to continue his rise up the Middleweight division. Having defeated Gregory Rodrigues in his UFC debut, with a victory here, there is a possibility that Petrosyan could jump into the top fifteen.
While I’m surprised that this is the co-main event, it’s a big opportunity for two men who would likely be buried on the prelims. Borralho was solid in his debut, showing off his excellent grappling abilities to the tune of ten minutes of control time. With solid cardio, and good striking, the UFC may have found something special at 185 pounds. The same could be said about the former Kickboxer Petrosyan, who defeated a top Middleweight in Gregory Rodrigues in his debut. Only eight fights into his career, Petrosyan finds himself closing in on a big fight.
As for a prediction, I have Barralho winning. While Petrosyan is the better striker and proved his toughness in his UFC debut, he still is vulnerable to being taken down. Rodrigues, who is a solid grappler, for whatever reason waited until later in the fight to take Petrosyan down. There was little resistance when he did such either. Given Borralho’s grappling and ability to control foes on the ground, I believe the Brazilian has a significant edge in the fight. So with that said, I predict that Borralho will win via decision.
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135 lbs.: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade – We have a pivotal fight in the Bantamweight division, as Said Nurmagomedov takes on Douglas Silva de Andrade. Since dropping his first fight in the UFC back in 2019, Nurmagomedov has rattled off two straight wins. Looking as impressive as ever in each fight, Nurmagomedov stopped both opponents within 51 seconds. Eyeing the division’s top fifteen, with a victory, don’t be surprised to see Nurmagomedov with a number next to his name. Meanwhile, de Andrade has won two straight and three of the last four. Weathering an early storm in his most recent fight, the Brazilian dug deep and pulled off an exceptional comeback over Sergey Morozov. Formerly a Flyweight, de Andrade has adjusted well at Bantamweight and with a victory, could fins himself fighting a top fifteen foe next.
Despite the odds heavily favoring Nurmagomedov, de Andrade has never been an easy out. In thirty-two professional fights, de Andrade has only lost four times. Of those four, his opponents have combined for a 47-6-1 record. A striker, with legitimate power in his hands, de Andrade has won by knockout in twenty of his twenty-eight wins. With excellent takedown defense, physical strength and top notch durability, de Andrade has the ability to give anyone fits. However, Nurmagomedov is beginning to evolve into a future contender. Over the past two fights, Nurmagomedov has stopped both foes under a minute. That includes Cody Stamann, who had only been stopped once in twenty-five fights. An impressive striker, with a dynamic skillset, Nurmagomedov has largely been one to outpoint opponents. With this recent string of finishes, Nurmagomedov is one to watch out for.
As for a prediction, I have Nurmagomedov winning. Aside from his iffy cardio, Nurmagomedov is the better of the two on the feet. Obviously de Andrade packs a bigger punch, but he can often be very inaccurate. Given Nurmagomedov is defensively sound, those woes will be enhanced this fight. Over the course of fifteen minutes, I expect Nurmagomedov to outpoint the Brazilian to a decision victory.
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265 lbs.: Jared Vanderaa vs. Chase Sherman – A pair of struggling fighters clash in the Heavyweight division, as Jared Vanderaa takes on Chase Sherman. A loser of three straight and four of the last five, Vanderaa comes into this fight with his UFC tenure hanging in the balance. Given an opportunity after a third straight loss is a gift enough, but being on the main card is a huge chance for Vanderaa to prove he belongs under the bright lights. Meanwhile, Sherman is flirting with another UFC exile. Technically on his thirst stint in the UFC, Sherman will have to halt a four-fight skid. Having never really found his footing inside the octagon, Sherman is sporting a disastrous 3-9 record with the promotion. With one more chance presented to turn things around, Sherman urgently needs to win.
This is an utter crapshoot, as both men are at the bottom of the barrel in the Heavyweight division. If anything is certain, given both men are strikers, this fight should take place for the majority of the time on the feet. When analyzing both men, Sherman appears to have an output and power edge. Neither man is particularly durable, but Vanderaa has the better chin of the two. He also has the better cardio, as Sherman is known to fade as the fight wanes on. In what I anticipate to be anyone’s fight to win, I’ll go with Vanderaa knowing that if he wins any of the first two rounds, he should be able to nab round three. So with that said, I predict Vanderaa to win via decision.
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125 lbs.: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Nina Nunes – A Women’s Flyweight contest is spotlighted on the main card, as Cynthia Calvillo takes on Nina Nunes. On a brutal three-fight skid, Calvillo comes into this fight urgently needing a victory. Once a contender and within one victory from a title shot, Calvillo’s fall from grace has seen her drop to eleventh in the rankings. At 34 years old, the time is now for Calvillo to turn things back around. Meanwhile, Nunes comes into this fight on a two-fight losing streak. Having only fought once in the past three years due to becoming a mother, Nunes will look to the Flyweight division to rejuvenate her career.
This is solid matchmaking, as both former Strawweight’s desperately need to get their careers back on track. Calvillo is a grappler, who has often dismissed that part of her game, electing to strike instead. While Calvillo can hold her own on the feet, it’s her ground game that has been at the center of her success. Hoping Calvillo abandons grappling is Nunes, who is a striker by trade. An active on at that, as she is landing 4.64 significant strikes per fifteen minutes. Still working on her defensive wrestling, Nunes sports a pretty good 76% takedown defense.
As for a prediction, I have Nunes winning. While Calvillo may finally grapple and see success, I can’t trust her to actually do so. Time and time again, Calvillo has abandoned her strength and instead decides to get into a firefight on the feet. Nunes being the better in that aspect gives me hope that she will prevail for the first time in over three years via decision.
155 lbs.: Michael Johnson vs. Jamie Mullarkey – A Lightweight contest kicks off the main card, as Michael Johnson takes on Jamie Mullarkey. Coming off his first victory since 2018, which also ended a four-fight skid, Johnson will look to keep the good times going. Closing in on twelve years with the promotion, Johnson will make the walk for the twenty-sixth time. Having fought the majority of those fights in the Lightweight division, with three more knockdowns, Johnson will tie Melvin Guillard for the most all-time in the Lightweight division at thirteen. Meanwhile, Mullarkey comes into this fight off a tough defeat to rising star Jalin Turner. The loss halted a two-fight win streak and put the Aussie under .500 in the UFC. Needing to get back on track, Mullarkey enters this fight knowing his positioning in the Lightweight division could take a severe blow with another loss.
Despite snapping the four-fight skid, I’m not ready to jump back in on Johnson. He’s still the same guy that dating back to 2015, has only won four of thirteen fights. The same guy who is a winning a fight, and then collapses at any point. A salty 20-17 professional record would suggest how volatile Johnson is. Against a well rounded finisher like Mullarkey, I don’t see things going well for Johnson. Of course if the Aussie decides to stand and trade, Johnson’s chances of winning improve. However, if Mullarkey resorts to wrestling, Johnson is 2-7 when taken down. And given his vulnerability to being submitted, one could expect Mullarkey to capitalize on that. Regardless though, Mullarkey is the better all around fighter and boast the durability and cardio that will outlast Johnson. So with that said, I predict Mullarkey to win via TKO.
135 lbs.: Ricky Turcios vs. Aiemann Zahabi – The preliminary card headliner comes in the Bantamweight division, as Aiemann Zahabi takes on Ricky Turcios. After stumbling in back-to-back fights, Zahabi pulled out an impressive knockout victory over Drako Rodriguez. The victory was Zahabi’s second inside the octagon and first in over five years. Having been inactive for much of his UFC tenure, Zahabi will need to ramp it up if ever wants to become a champion. Meanwhile, Turcios is making his first appearance since defeating Brady Hiestand to become the Ultimate Fighter 29 winner. The victory was his second straight and only fourth since September of 2016. Needing to fight often and live up to the hype, luckily at only 29 years of age, Turcios has time on his side.
This should be an entertaining scrap, as both men are fairly well rounded. The difference, which leans me towards Turcios, is he slightly better in several aspects. For starters, Turcios is way more active. In his last fight, he landed 100 significant strikes, which is roughly 6.67 significant strikes per fifteen minutes. You’d have to have to add up four fights worth of significant strikes for Zahabi to even eclipse 100. Also, Turcios is the more effective and powerful striker, which in part is aided by the activity. What Zahabi may have an advantage in, is offensive wrestling. Especially considering Turcios seems most vulnerable to being taken down. The only issue is, Turcios isn’t one to stay on his back. He’s constantly scrambling for position, threatening with submissions and popping right back up. In the end, while this fight might be close, give me the activity of Turcios to trump Zahabi via decision.
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125 lbs.: Cortney Casey vs. Antonina Shevchenko – A fight in the Women’s Flyweight division, pits Antonina Shevchenko against Cortney Casey. A loser of two-straight and three of the last four, Shevchenko is creeping into a dangerous territory. One in which could see her UFC tenure hang in the balance. At 37-years old, Shevchenko is running out of time to prove that she is one of the very best Flyweight’s. Meanwhile, Casey comes into this fight with a rare opportunity to string together two wins. Something in which has eluded Casey since 2016, as she has only won six of her fourteen fights inside the octagon. Needing to find consistency if she were ever to elevate herself into a contender, perhaps the rise of Casey begins now.
Despite failing to ever establish her presence in the UFC, Casey can be a tough out for anyone. A striker by trade, who lands with volume, Casey is at her best when she doesn’t have to worry about the threat of a takedown. If brought to the mat though, Casey is very active and has a dangerous submission game. Something in which I doubt she will have to utilize much in this fight, as Shevchenko is a pure striker. A technical one at that, who is very accurate. Hampered throughout her career by her lack of takedown defense, Shevchenko has seen all four of her UFC losses come when she was taken down three or more times. Given Casey has landed three takedowns in fourteen fights inside the octagon, I highly doubt Shevchenko will have to worry about that.
In what I consider to be a toss-up, I’m going with Casey. Armed with grit, Casey isn’t afraid to fight dirty and brawl. Active on the feet, even if Shevchenko finds success being more accurate, Casey has a clear volume edge. While I’m not expecting this fight to hit the mat, if it does, Shevchenko may have the size, but Casey has a threating submission game. With everything lining up for Casey to nab her first win-streak since 2016, I predict her to win this fight via decision.
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185 lbs.: Cody Brundage vs. Tresean Gore – The Middleweight division see’s a pair of fighters looking to carve out their name in the UFC, as Cody Brundage takes on Tresean Gore. Nearly staring at a two-fight skid, Brundage weathered a troublesome start, eventually nabbing a submission win. The victory was his first in the UFC, and second in the last two fights. Meanwhile, Gore is coming off an unsuccessful debut. A fight where he clearly had the power edge, but lacked the volume to keep pace with Bryan Battle. Hoping to hone in his abilities in his second appearance, Gore finds himself in the most important fight of his young career.
Given both men are relatively green in this sport, this should in essence, be a competitive fight. Brundage is a D-2 wrestler, who’s transitions while on the ground are solid. Still evolving his ground skills, Brundage has seen his last three wins come via submission. Capable on the feet, but vulnerable, Brundage can be a mixed bag striking. An area in which Gore will look to get the better of Brundage, as he is a solid striker with legitimate power. Athletic and a good wrestler too, Gore is fairly well rounded and more refined than your usual four-fight pro.
This fight could go either way, but Gore’s wrestling is the x-factor. If he can utilize it to keep the bout upright, his striking and power are going to takeover the fight. Seeing how Brundage nearly was stopped in his last fight, it gives me more assurance that Gore is going to finish the job that Dalcha Lungiambula could not. So with that said, I predict that Gore will win via knockout.
145 lbs.: David Onama vs. Garrett Armfield – A late addition to the card in the Featherweight division will see David Onama take on a familiar foe in Garrett Armfield. A fight that is a rematch in a sense, as both men fought each other as amateurs – with Onama winning via unanimous decision. After notching his first UFC victory via knockout, Onama returns to the octagon looking continue his rise. Known for his ability to halt fights, Onama carries a perfect 100% finishing rate. With six wins since 2020, Onama in not only an active fighter, but a legitimate prospect to watch at Featherweight. Meanwhile, Armfield will make his UFC debut on short notice and up a weight class. A winner of three straight and six of the last seven, Armfield comes into this fight surging. A known finisher as well, Armfield has won seven of his eight victories inside the distance.
When Onama debuted in the UFC, I said that he seemed to be one of the more UFC ready talents I’ve seen in quite some time. Obviously his debut didn’t go his way, but he looked excellent for fighting on short notice and up a weight class against a very solid Mason Jones. The second time around, Onama got hit way more often than I thought he would, but he got the job done via a first round knockout. With good grappling to go along with his durability, striking and power, Onama is going to be a threat in this Featherweight division in short order. Obviously Armfield isn’t some sacrificial lamb in this fight, as he’s scrappy, durable and evolving as a grappler. However, eventually his willingness to brawl and be aggressive, is going to see him pay. Up a weight class and on short notice against a finisher like Onama, this may just be the spot. So with that said, I predict that Onama wins via knockout.
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205 lbs.: Karl Roberson vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu – The Light Heavyweight division features a potential pink slip fight, as Kennedy Nzechukwu takes on Karl Roberson. Looking to halt a two-fight skid, which the first of his young career, Nzechukwu comes into this fight needing to right the ship. Having won three straight previous to the losing streak, the potential is evident, Nzechukwu just needs to harness it. Meanwhile, Roberson is in a nightmare tailspin. A loser of three straight, all of which he’s been stopped in, Roberson heads into this fight with UFC tenure likely on the line. Despite being more successful at Middleweight, weight issues have forced him up to Light Heavyweight. A division in which he is 2-2 in his career.
This is Nzechukwu’s fight to lose. Massive for the weight class, and facing a former Middleweight in Roberson, Nzechukwu carries a significant four inch height and nine inch reach advantage. Having to worry very little in regards to wrestling, Nzechukwu should be at his best against a fellow striker in Roberson. Using his reach, expect Nzechukwu to land first early and often. Averaging 5.13 significant strikes per fifteen minutes, Nzechukwu offers up excellent volume. He also has some solid power, as evident by six of his nine victories coming via knockout. Not entirely concerned by Roberson’s striking, which is pretty good, but lacks the disrupting power. I believe that Nzechukwu should win this fight fairly dominantly. Let’s say via KO.
135 lbs.: Ronnie Lawrence vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov – The curtain jerker comes in the Bantamweight division, as Ronnie Lawrence takes on Saidyokub Kakhramonov. A winner of five straight, two of which have come inside the octagon, Lawrence comes into this bout with excellent momentum. Known for his wrestling abilities, Lawrence has landed an astonishing twenty-six takedowns at a 78% accuracy over his last three fights. With one more victory, Lawrence could find himself in a main card spot. Meanwhile, Kakhramonov returns to the octagon looking to replicate his successful debut over Trevin Jones. A fight that Kakhramonov took on short notice and won via submission with twenty-one seconds remaining in the fight. The stoppage was his seventh in nine victories.
This is an excellent fight and probably should of been featured on the main card. Lawrence is a solid chain wrestler, who as I mentioned previously, has landed twenty-six takedowns in his last three fights. Backed by a solid gas tank, Lawrence is relentless in his pursuit to ground his opponent. While he lacks a submission game, his ability to control foes and land ground-and-pound have aided him to victory. Where Lawrence’s concerns lie, is on the feet. Despite being able to hold his own, it’s an area where opponents have seen success. In Lawrence’s last fight, he was dropped twice by Mana Martinez. Something in which Kakhramonov probably is eyeballing. A well rounded fighter, with a Judo background, Kakhramonov is a bright prospect in this Bantamweight division. With good pop in his hands and a menacing submission game, Kakhramonov is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Needing to shore up his striking defense, Kakhramonov sometimes has taken more punishment than necessary.
As for a prediction, I have Kakhramonov winning. In what is bound to be an exciting fight, I believe that Kakhramonov can withstand Lawrence’s wrestling. Backed by Judo, grappling and a dangerous submission game, Kakhramonov has several avenues to escape positions and give Lawrence fits. While on the feet, Kakhramonov is not only the more dynamic of the two, but has the power to disrupt the fight. With that said, I predict that Kakhramonov wins via knockout.
The main event comes in the Lightweight division, as Rafael dos Anjos takes on Rafael Fiziev. Returning to the division he once conquered, dos Anjos has rattled off back-to-back wins. Currently ranked seventh, the former Champion is inching closer and closer to a title shot. With a victory over a surging Fiziev, dos Anjos could realistically find himself in a number one contender’s fight next. Meanwhile, Fiziev comes into this fight on a five-fight win streak. Having rattled off four straight bonuses to go along with the wins, Fiziev is becoming must watch tv. Co-headlining his first main event, the tenth ranked Lightweight has a chance to knock off a former Champion and firmly put himself in the title mix.
Despite this being the third attempt to pair these two up, it’s a blessing that we get to finally see it. A former champion for a reason, dos Anjos is one of the most well rounded fighters on the roster. Backed by an endless gas tank, dos Anjos is very active. Whether it’s on the feet or wrestling, dos Anjos is always working to score points. Extremely durable, the Brazilian has only been stopped three times in forty-four fights. Looking to challenge that durability is Fiziev. A dynamic striking, who is precise and powerful, Fiziev can put away anyone. Excellent in distance management, Fiziev often chops down opponents with leg kicks and picks them apart on the outside. In brief, he’s a handful to deal with on the feet. Not easy to takedown either, in six UFC fights, Fiziev has shrugged off twenty-two of twenty-three takedown attempts. The only vulnerability the Kyrgyz has shown is gas tank may be problematic.
As for a prediction, I have dos Anjos winning. In what I expect to be a barnburner, I’m banking on the well rounded and cardio machine dos Anjos to take Fiziev into deep waters. Knowing the Kyrgyz may slow down the later the fight goes, dos Anjos should see his game shine in the later rounds. I believe he will even penetrate the stout takedown defense of Fiziev. In the end, I predict that dos Anjos outlasts Fiziev, winning via decision – his thirteenth in the UFC, which would tie him with Neil Magny for the most all-time with the promotion.
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