We have an intriguing fight in the Middleweight division, as Phil ‘Megatron’ Hawes takes on Deron Winn. Since 2019, Hawes has won seven of his last eight fights. Despite losing his most recent bout to Chris Curtis, the former Ultimate Fighter 23 competitor is no longer a flameout. He’s a dangerous knockout artist who is a few wins away from nearing the division’s top fifteen. Meanwhile, Winn comes into this fight off a victory over Antonio Arroyo. Overcoming a nine inch height disadvantage, the standout wrestler used twelve takedowns en route to a decision victory. An important win too, as Winn faced a potential three-fight losing streak in the face.
This is a tough fight for Deron Winn, as the undersized Middleweight will need to find a way to break the solid takedown defense of Phil Hawes. Given that Hawes himself is a wrestler, who has an excellent base and a hulking physique, I find it hard to see Winn having much success. On the feet, it’s no contest. Winn is tough, but will need to overcome a six inch height and eight inch reach advantage. Throw in the fact that Hawes has legitimate knockout power, and I really don’t see this going all too well for the former collegiate wrestler.
As for a prediction, I obviously have Phil Hawes. The man is a legitimate tank and has the skills to make a run in this division. On the other hand, Winn is an excellent wrestler who is being held back by being undersized. I’m not sure if the thought of trying to make Welterweight is in his plans, but I don’t see how much longer the UFC keeps him around if he sticks at Middleweight. Especially if Winn is given matchups that stylistically give him little to no shot. In the end, I foresee Hawes turning aside Winn’s constant takedown attempts and eventually knocking him out on the feet.
In an unbelievable showing, Prochazka survived several grappling positions and submissions from one of the best ground specialist in the weight class. With less than a minute left from losing the fight, Prochazka locked in a fight ending submission. A truly bizarre result for such an instant classic of a fight, as Jiri had only two submission wins in thirty-two fights – and Glover Teixeira had never been submitted in forty professional fights.
What’s next:?
Rematch: The first is an immediate rematch. An unexpected result, and one that never crossed my mind. However, given how the fight went and how close Teixeira was to winning, I could see it. After all, Teixeira is 42 years old. His time remaining in the sport is nearing expiration and I’d assume the UFC wants to get whatever’s left out of him.
Jan Blachowicz: As long as this fight takes place overseas, it could be very lucrative. Two European standouts clashing, with Blachowicz trying to get his throne back. A fun storyline for what would be an exciting fight. The problem for Blachowicz though, is not only how the main event played out, but that Teixeira beat him less than a year ago. Obviously Blachowicz has won since, but the nature of victory with Rakic suffering a knee injury could muddy the waters for a title shot next
Winner of Anthony Smith vs. Magomed Ankalaev: Oddly enough, if Smith were to win this fight. I think that the Teixeira rematch would grow more legs. The reason for that is because Smith has two losses since May of 2020. One of them being a beatdown by Teixeira. However, if Ankalaev were to win, it would be warranted for him to garner a title shot. Unless he’s under the Tony Ferguson restriction, a victory would be nine straight. That’s second in Light Heavyweight history to Jon Jones’ seventeen consecutive and tied for fourteenth all-time in UFC history. Hard to ignore such a feat.
Glover Teixeira
Almost notching an epic victory to a legendary career, Teixeira appears not ready to hang up the gloves. With father time creeping in, the path for Teixeira to garner another title shot doesn’t seem all that impossible.
Rematch: See Above
Jan Blachowicz: Even though they just fought, they talked about running back. Obviously Teixeira was the Champion and that’s what Blachowicz is gunning for. However, depending on what happens in the Anthony Smith and Magomed Ankalaev fight, this could be an inevitable fight to get back to the title for both men.
Shogun Rua: This is a true Hail Mary scenario, but with both nearing the end of their legendary careers, this fight could be a potential sendoff. I’m not sure what the status of their friendship is these days, but I recall Rua snubbing the idea of fighting Teixeira back in 2012 and even Teixeira calling out his fellow Brazilian in 2019. It has legs, but not strong one’s with Teixeira being in the title picture still.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos 2: Before this fight, I had really wanted to see Shevchenko move up and challenge the winner of Julianna Pena and Amanada Nunes for the Bantamweight title. However, after seeing a valiant effort by Santos, who could of very well of won the split decision, I believe the Brazilian deserves another shot. After all, not only was the fight close and competitive, but a head clash in the third round compromised Santo’s eye. Clearly hampering her striking in the Championship rounds, which were rounds won by Shevchenko, Santos lost an opportunity to shock the world. It would only be right to give her that chance again.
Zhang Weili vs. Carla Esparza: Obviously this is next, but I did want to highlight that Weili looked absolutely incredible.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk: Retiring following the fight, Jędrzejczyk’s career will live on as that of a legend and future Hall of Famer.
Jake Matthews vs. Alex Morono: In Matthews’ sixteenth fight in the UFC, never did I think we’d see a version of the Aussie that looks like a problem in the Welterweight division. A truly flawless performance and perhaps the beginning of something special, a potential scrap with Alex Morono could be fireworks.
Andre Fialho vs. Matt Brown: Looking to win for the third time in fifty-six days, Fialho finally met resistance in Jake Matthews. While time off may be in order, down the line, a fight against Matt Brown would be extremely exciting.
Jack Della Maddalena vs.Niko Price: After another sensational performance, Maddalena finds himself in a solid position only two fights into his UFC tenure. Obviously not wanting to rush, but at the same time he just defeated an experienced ex M-1 Champion in Ramazan Emeev, I feel like a logical next fight could be against Niko Price. Just Imagine the Chaos!
Ramazan Emeev vs. Warlley Alves: After back-to-back losses, Emeev’s chances to impact a stacked Welterweight division may be all but gone. However, an interesting next fight could be a clash of styles against Alves.
Josh Culibao vs. Julian Erosa: Notching his second consecutive win in the UFC, Culibao begins his ascension in the Featherweight division. A fun next step and scrap if I’m being honest, would be against Erosa.
Seung Woo Choi vs. Steven Peterson: Stumbling now in two straight fights, Choi will need to pick himself back up. Maybe a fight against Steven Peterson, who is coming off a loss would be ideal.
Hayisaer Maheshate vs. Natan Levy: Usually one to dismiss inexperienced fighters with no quality wins, I for the first-time actually believed that Maheshate looked the part of a UFC fighter. Predicting him to win via knockout, Maheshate didn’t fail me. Building him up, a fight against a fellow fighter with than less than ten fights in Levy would be ideal. How about in Paris?
Steve Garcia vs. Frank Camacho: It’s plausible to believe that we are dealing with a chin issue, as Garcia has been dropped four times in two fights. Another guy who has suffered a similar chin issues is Camacho. A fight between the two could be exciting and quick.
Brendan Allen vs. Krzysztof Jotko: Teetering along the top fifteen, Allen could benefit to fight another foe who is on the cusp of cracking the rankings in Jotko.
Jacob Malkoun vs. Nick Maximov: This would be quite the wrestling match.
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Jonathan Martinez: While Martinez may deserve someone higher up, this fight isn’t exactly out of the realm of possibility. After all, Kang was won four of his last five fights. Also, the fight itself would be an intriguing striking battle.
Danaa Batgerel vs. Marcelo Rojo: In the midst of a tough stretch, Batgerel will have to go back to the drawing board. However, given his style, he’s looking to slug it out. A perfect opponent willing to brawl would be Rojo.
Silvana Gomez Juarez vs. Sam Hughes: After an impressive knockout, Juarez looks like she can do some damage in this division if she avoids the ground. Hughes being well rounded would offer up a test.
Na Liang vs. Ashley Yoder: Liang has yet to taste victory and even worse, she’s been finished in both fights. A potential fight that could be beneficial be against Yoder. After all, she’s in a slump and hasn’t finished someone since 2016.
Joselyne Edwards vs. Macy Chiasson: If Edwards sticks around at Featherweight, this is the only open fight in the division
Ramona Pascual vs. loser of Leah Letson vs. Chelsea Chandler: If not cut, this would be a bottom of the division fight.
Best Bet Under 3 1/2 Rounds (-300) There is a realistic chance that I’m going overboard here, as this fight could end earlier. After all, twenty-six of Prochazka’s thirty-two professional fight have not made it past round one. Of the remaining six, only two have seen a round three – although one of the fights that didn’t, was a two-round decision. Still, a finisher to the core, Prochazka isn’t one to be in the cage for all that long.
Teixeira on the other hand, can be a mixed bag. Of his forty professional fights, twenty-seven haven’t seen a round two. However, five of his last six fights ended inside the distance – four of which have been under the the 3 1/2 rounds mark.
Best Bet Shevchenko wins Inside the distance (+130) Any time Shevchenko steps inside the octagon, it’s a treat. And while the competition has fluctuated, Shevchenko has been a constant. Winning eight straight fights, with three of the last four coming via stoppage, Shevchenko winning inside the distance at plus money seems too good to pass on. Obviously Santos is a good fighter, but she doesn’t possess anything Shevchenko hasn’t seen before. Not trying to compare or contrast, but Shevchenko has finished opponents with similar, if not better abilities than Santos. Lastly, having never fought for twenty-five minutes, I’m curious as to how Santos’ gas tank will fare with not only an extra ten minutes, but against the pound for pound queen.
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Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Zhang Weili
Best Bet Joanna Jedrzejczyk moneyline (+140)
If there is anything certain, it’s going to be the fact that we wished this fight were five rounds again. Sensing another barnburner, I’m in the belief that this will be a close fight. Especially when you consider that in the first fight, round three was the only round scored the same by all three judges. Knowing that this fight could be eerily similar, why not take the underdog in Jedrzejczyk? With two years off, and time to mentally reset, Jedrzejczyk should realistically enter that octagon recharged. Obviously no disrespect to Weili, who is a beast and former Champion herself. However, she is coming into this fight with pressure. Having lost two straight, albeit the last being close, there could be that proverbial wall against the back. Either way, in what should be a close fight, it’s hard no to look at the dog.
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Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev
Best Bet Jack Della Maddalena moneyline (-155)
Unless Emeev blankets the Aussie, there is only one guy that is going to inflict damage – Maddalena. Given the rules have the judges weigh damage the heaviest upon there scoring, Maddalena has an instant edge in the fight. With good BJJ and the ability to pop back up, even if Emeev lands a takedown, I doubt he will be able to hold position. Especially in the later rounds, as Maddalena’s cardio outlasts Emeev. At a sound moneyline like this, it’s hard to pass on Maddalena.
The ultimate warrior, Fialho returns to the octagon seeking his third win in a mere fifty-six days. Personally, I think he gets it done. A fearsome striker, with excellent power, Fialho looks like a player at Welterweight. Matthews being his toughest test during this fifty-six day stretch, does present some issues and or questions to be answered. The main one being Fialho’s takedown defense. A potential concern, given Matthews’ wrestling abilities. However, Matthews has rarely controlled opponents for long stretches and I’m not certain he’s the guy who will penetrate a vulnerability. Having realistically defeated only one top fighter(Li Jingliang) in fifteen UFC fights, I don’t even see Matthews as reliable to get the job done.
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Rapid Fire
Best Bets Danaa Batgerel (-135) – Against a tough opponent, yet one who is always involved in close fights, Batgerel brings violence to the octagon. Not looking to go to the scorecards, Batgerel is a powerful striker who will look to turn your lights off. Meanwhile, his opponent Kang, is well rounded, but not someone who is overly dominating opponents. With four of his last seven fights resulting in split decisions, if this one is close, Batgerel should win alone on damage.
Hayisaer Maheshate (+150) – Despite the lack of inexperience and the most recent fight seeing Maheshate get stunned a few times before ultimately rallying back, he looks the part of a fighter who can finds success in the octagon. Obviously Garcia is a tough opponent, but he did get dropped twice in his last fight before too rallying back to win. One of the aspects that aided him to victory though, was the fact that his opponent has zero takedown defense. Maheshate on the other hand, seems way tougher to take down. And if Garcia finds himself in trouble, I don’t think he can get bailed out with his wrestling.
Na Liang (+115) – Opponent Silvana Gomez Juarez is 0-2 inside the octagon, losing both times by armbar. Gomez being a striker, who clearly has decencies in her grappling, one would see value in Liang. A wrestler and grappler, who looks to get the fight to the mat early. To me, that’s all I need to hear.
Ramona Pascual (+135) – With this fight taking place at Featherweight, I really like Pascual. Not having to kill herself to get down to Bantamweight, her size, cardio and durability should all play roles in aiding her to victory. Edwards, who has been taken down nine times and controlled for nearly twenty-three minutes in her last two fights, jumps up in weight thinking her flaws won’t be exacerbated? Especially against an opponent who looks for takedowns and is big for the weight class?
Glover Teixeira wins inside the distance (+250) – With Jiri Prochazka being a wild and frantic fighter and having question marks surrounding his takedown defense, I find it hard not to like this juicy line for Teixeira. Throughout the Brazilian’s career, he’s proven that even if he’s hurt, he will still push hard for that takedown. And being on the ground with him, can be game over.
– 28 victories via stoppage (18 T/KO, 10 Sub) – Won 6 straight – 6 of the last 7 wins came via stoppage – 12-1 when landing a takedown
– 3 of 7 losses via stoppage (3 T/KO) – Stopped in 2 of the last 3 losses – 3-4 when being taken down
Jiri Prochazka (12-3, 6-3 UFC)
– 27 victories via stoppage (26 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 12 straights wins – 23 first round finishes – 22-1-1 in the last 24 fights – Only lost once in the last 9 years
– Stopped in all 3 losses (2 T/KO, 1 Sub)
Valentina Shevchenko (22-3, 11-2 UFC)
– 15 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 7 Sub) – The last 2 wins came via stoppage – 8 straight wins – 11-1 when landing a takedown – 9-0 at Flyweight
– Only stopped once via TKO (doctor stoppage) – 3-2 when taken down
Taila Santos (15-0, 5-0 UFC)
– 13 victories via stoppage (10 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 4 of the last 5 wins came via decision – 7-1 at Flyweight – 3-1 when landing a takedown
– Only lost via split decision
Zhang Weili (21-3, 5-2 UFC)
– 17 victories via stoppage (10 T/KO, 7 Sub) – 2 of the last 3 wins came via decision – 4-1 when landing a takedown
– Stopped only once via knockout – Lost 2 Straight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (21-1, 10-4 UFC)
– 5 victories via stoppage (4 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 6 wins came via decision – 6-2 when landing 126 or more strikes
– Stopped only once via knockout – Lost 4 of the 6 fights – 1-3 when absorbing 89 or more strikes
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Rogerio Bontorin (16-4, 2-3 UFC)
– 14 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 11 Sub) – 9 first round finishes – 8 wins by rear-naked choke
– 2 of 4 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 0-3 with 1 No contest in the last 4 fights – 1-3 when absorbing 13 or more strikes
Manel Kape (17-6, 2-2 UFC)
– 16 victories via stoppage (11 T/KO, 5 Sub) – 9 first round stoppage victories – Won 2 Straight – 2-0 when absorbing less than 32 strikes
– 2 of 6 losses via stoppage (2 Sub) – 1-4 in decisions – 1-2 when absorbing 49 or more strikes
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Jack Della Madallena (11-2, 1-0 UFC)
– 10 victories via stoppage (9 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 5 first round finishes – Won 11 straight
– Stopped in both losses (1 T/KO, 1 Sub)
Ramazan Emeev (20-5, 6-2 UFC)
– 10 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 7 Sub) – Won 9 of the last 11 – Last 6 wins came via decision – 5-1 when landing a takedown
– 2 of 5 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 2-2 in the last 4 fights – 1-2 when absorbing 34 or more strikes
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka DraftKings Spreadsheet
Best Plays
9kRange
Valentina Shevchenko ($9,600) – The highest salaried fighter on the slate, the Queen of the Flyweight’s and Pound for Pound best, Shevchenko is worth every penny. Averaging 112.94 in victory, with a high of 138.7 points, it would be hard to fade one of the very best plays on the card.
Manel Kape ($9,200) – After a rough start in his UFC tenure, Kape has strung together back-to-back first round finishes. Racking up an average of 119.6 in the two fights, with a high of 131.5 points, the former Rizin Champion is a solid play at this price.
8kRange
Jiri Prochazka ($8,900) – When Prochazka steps inside the octagon, you know pure violence follows him. A chaotic fighter, with 27 of his 28 victories coming via stoppage, Prochazka is a DFS dream. In two fights inside the octagon, Prochazka has averaged 106.1 points.
Andre Fialho ($8,500) – Entering his third fight in fifty-six days, Fialho is one of my favorite plays on the play. Delivering back-to-back first round finishes, Fialho is not only locked in, but a player at Welterweight. Averaging 109.9 in victory and against an opponent who has been stopped in four of five losses, Fialho will be apart of my lineup for sure.
Danaa Batgerel ($8,300) – Despite faltering in his recent fight, Batgerel is a fighter worth rostering. Averaging 114.66 in victory, the fifth highest on the slate, Batgerel is a finisher to the core. With his last seven wins coming via first round stoppages, he’s almost a guarantee to score 90 or more points.
Jack Della Maddalena ($8,200) – Since losing his first two professional fights, Maddalena has rattled off eleven consecutive victories – with ten of those wins coming via stoppage. A non-stop fighter, with an iron chin and a real knack to finish his opponent, Maddalena is a guy I can get behind. Obviously his opponent Ramazan Emeev could zap points away by wrestling, which is very feasible, the way he fights and has a motor, I feel very strongly that he can rack up enough points to satisfy anyone picking him at 8.2k.
7k and Under Range
Hayisaer Maheshate ($7,800) – After watching Maheshate’s fight on Dana White’s Contender Series, and seeing him get hurt several times, there is certainly risk in picking him. After all, Maheshate only has seven professional fights. However, in that same fight, he battled back and won the bout. Showing off dynamic striking, good takedown defense and a solid gas tank, Maheshate is an intriguing upset pick. Especially considering his opponent Steve Garcia got dropped twice in his last pick.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($7,400) – Other than Andre Fialho, Jedrzejczyk is one of my favorite plays. Despite being away from the octagon for a little more than two years, Jedrzejczyk brings forth a championship pedigree every time she fights. A skilled striker, Jedrzejczyk is a monster in DFS. Averaging 111.46 in victory, with five of the last six wins scoring 111.7 or more points, Jedrzejczyk is an absolute bargain.
Glover Teixeira ($7,300) – Father time certainly has never met Teixeira, as the the Light Heavyweight Champion will make his first title defense at 42 years young. Armed with crisp boxing and an excellent ground game, Teixeira has made it known that all it takes is one takedown for him to change the complexation of the fight. Averaging 103.17 in victory, with a high of 137.3 points, Teixeira is a solid play. Especially considering we’ve yet to really see Jiri Prochazka need to fend off takedowns.
Jacob Malkoun ($7,200) – A well rounded fighter, Malkoun has absolutely been racking up the points in his last two fights. A card’s best 121.95 points in victory, Malkoun offers an excellent floor at this low price tag. With fourteen takedowns and nearly 21 minutes of control time in his last two fights, the Aussie is an absolute workhorse.
Taila Santos ($6,800) – I personally, am not picking Santos. However, if anyone believes that she is the one to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko, then by all means go all-in here. Averaging 88.3 career points, which the 4th highest on the card and 103.25 in victory, there is a lot to like from a fight and statistical standpoint.
Fades
Joselyne Edwards ($8,700) – This price tag just seems egregious. Not only is Edwards 2-3 in her last five fights, but her career points average of 44 is the fourth worst on the card. That includes a victory, which scored 76.9 – the third lowest point total in victory on the card. Now, moving up the Featherweight to fight a natural 145 pounder in Ramona Pascual, and I can’t even fathom to pay up for Edwards at this price.
Silvana Gomez Juarez ($8,600) – Another tough price tag, Juarez is 0-2 inside the octagon. Losing both fights by armbar, Juarez comes into her third UFC appearance against Na Liang. A fighter, who has scored more than 4 times her point total in only one fight – which happened to also be a loss. Given Liang is a wrestler and grappler, and that Juarez has seemingly struggled with grappling thus far, at 8.6k, there is little chance I’m paying up for Juarez.
Ramazan Emeev ($8,000) – A wrestler, who uses his kickboxing to simply set up his entries, Emeev has never been someone who scored heaps of point. Averaging the second fewest points in victory at 75.88, which is from a sample of six wins, Emeev just isn’t worth picking. Hell, his highest point total in victory was 93.8 – the second lowest on the slate.
205 lbs.: UFC Light Heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka – The Main-event comes in the Light Heavyweight division, as the Champion Glover Teixeira makes his first title defense against challenger Jiri “Denisa” Prochazka. An unlikely Championship run, Teixeira at 42 years young, became the oldest first time Champion in UFC history. Having won six straight, Teixeira clearly hasn’t met father time. Meanwhile, Prochazka comes into this fight on a twelve-fight win streak. With only two of those wins coming inside the distance, Prochazka has certainly caught the attention of the UFC to be granted this title shot. One that I personally am fine with.
Debuting in 2012, at 32 years old, Teixeira quickly made him presence known and challenged Jon Jones for the title in 2014. Unsuccessful, Teixeira would be a perennial top contender, who just couldn’t win the important fight to get himself back in position to via another title shot. Thinking his prime may have been wasted due to a visa issue, Teixeira would do the unthinkable. With gas left in the tank and the perfect storm of Jon Jones vacating the title, Teixeira would rattle off five straight wins and challenge for the title. A successful challenge at that, as Teixeira submitted Jan Blachowicz to become the oldest first time Champion in UFC history at 42. A well rounded fighter, Teixeira can be described as a boxer who has excellent wrestling, grappling and submission abilities. Having largely banked on taking opponents down during this streak, Teixeira has stopped five opponents – four of which came via submission.
Despite being out for over a year, Prochazka shouldn’t be hampered by any rust. A frantic fighter, who looks to blitzkrieg opponents, Prochazka is a scary opponent to face. While he does leave openings to get cracked, more often than not, he’s the one who has done the cracking. Backed by twenty-five knockout victories, twenty of which came in round one, Prochazka game is pretty simple – knock my opponent out early. With a clear speed advantage and athleticism, there is a chance that Prochazka looks like Sonic out there with Teixeira.
As for a prediction, I’m going with Teixeira. Despite being at a slight height and size disadvantage, as well as lacking the speed, athleticism and striking output that Prochazka brings forth, Teixeira has proven that all he needs is one takedown to change the complexation of a fight. Given Prochazka came into the UFC with some takedown defense concerns, and has been rather untested in that department in two fights inside the octagon, I feel like Teixeira can absolutely capitalize on that. Having endured punishment in several fights during this winning streak, I’m not saying Teixeira can afford to eat shots, but he has proven that he can overcome trouble and get the fight to mat. So with all that said, give me the 42 year old Teixeira to win via submission.
125 lbs.: UFC Women’s Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos – The Co-Main event comes in the Women’s Flyweight division, as Champion Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko makes her seventh title defense against challenger Taila Santos. A dominant force, Shevchenko has largely cleared out the Flyweight division. With eight straight wins, and little to no resistance, the Bullet may be looking to challenge for the Bantamweight title after this fight. Meanwhile, Santos comes into this fight on a four-fight win streak. Having taken out several top fifteen foes along the way, the Brazilian appears to be up to the task of challenging for the belt.
No disrespect to Santos, as she is one of the stiffer test Shevchenko will have faced in the Flyweight division, but ain’t no one beating the Kyrgyzstan Hit Woman. Currently the number one women’s pound for pound fighter, in my eyes at least, Shevchenko is simply on another level. A complete fighter, Shevchenko is mainly a striker who is simply put, calculated and dynamic. With immense physical strength and cardio for days, the Champion isn’t someone that can be bullied or fades during fights. Add excellent wrestling and grappling, and it’s hard not to find anything but strength’s in Shevchenko’s game.
Trying not be completely dismal of Santos, the Brazilian has a well crafted game herself. A powerful striker with debilitating leg kicks, Santos has proven to be a real problem on the feet. Recording three knockdowns in the last two fights, Santos certainly has a puncher’s chance to cause a disruption in this fight. With strength and wrestling as well, Santos has shown that she can get her foes to the mat – landing thirteen takedowns in six fights inside the octagon.
As for a prediction, if there was any doubt, I have Shevchenko. She’s leaps and bounds above the rest and until she finally goes up to challenge for the Bantamweight title, I can’t see her facing any resistance at this time. If I were to be honest, Jessica Andrade was Shevchenko’s toughest test. In ways, Santos is similar to her fellow Brazilian, but I’d favor Andrade if they ever fought. Nevertheless, I believe Shevchenko gets it done via TKO.
115 lbs.: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Zhang Weili – We have a rematch in the Women’s Strawweight division, as two former Champions in Zhang “Magnum” Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk clash. A loser of two straight, albeit the last fight coming via split decision, Weili returns to the octagon looking to reverse her fortune. Not taking an easier fight, Weili will look to closing the chapter on Jedrzejczyk as her route back to the title. Meanwhile, Jedrzejczyk returns to the octagon for the first time since her epic ‘Fight of the Year” battle against Weili . Taking a little over two years off, Jedrzejczyk comes into this bout recharged and looking to recapture her throne.
As the third to last fight on the card, this is a real treat to the fans. Both women are two of the best competitors the UFC roster has to offer and will once again lock horns in what is bound to be another barnburner. Weili , a well rounded fighter, is mainly an active striker that boast power and cardio. With excellent takedown defense and some wrestling chops, the physically strong Weili is one of the more complete fighters in the division. Which could be said about Jedrzejczyk too. An active striker as well, Jedrzejczyk is technical and methodically on the feet. With excellent cardio to back up her high pace, Jedrzejczyk has landed over 125 strikes in eight of her fights. A statistic that assuredly seems to be hers by a landslide. Lastly on Jedrzejczyk, she has solid takedown defense and isn’t someone to accept bottom position.
As for a prediction, I’m siding with Jedrzejczyk. While I picked Weili in the first fight, there was an aura around her at the time, that seemed to reflect a fighter who was brimming with confidence. Having now loss back-to-back fights, I’m not saying that confidence is gone, but the aura is no longer of invisibility. Jedrzejczyk suffered through it too, but that was four years ago. In the end, I believe that as long as Jedrzejczyk can avoid being doubled up by Weili’s power shots, that her output will reign through. With two years off to recharge the battery, I’m expect Jedrzejczyk to show out and win via decision.
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125 lbs.: Rogerio Bontorin vs. Manel Kape – We have a ranked battle in the Flyweight division, as Rogerio Bontorin takes on Manel “Starboy” Kape. A loser of three of the last four fights, with a no contest sandwiched in there, Bontorin comes into this bout needing to get back in the win column. Still holding onto the eighth spot in the rankings, Bontorin is still positioned in a spot that he can become a contender with a few victories. Meanwhile, Kape has found his stride of late. After dropping his first two fights inside the octagon, Kape has now strung together two straight victories. More impressively, both have been first round stoppages.
This fight pairs two fighters headed in opposite directions. Seeing a victory over Matt Schnell turned to a no contest, Bontorin has not won a fight since 2019. Still ranked in the top ten, Bontorin should consider himself very forunate. A grappler, who has won eleven of his sixteen fights via submission, Bontorin can be problematic to navigate with on the ground. On the feet, while not nearly as active, Bontorin sticks to short and powerful shots. However, given he has yet record a knockdown in five fights inside the octagon, I wouldn’t go thinking Bontorin is heavy handed by any stretch. The opposite could be said about Kape, who has won eleven of his seventeen victories via knockout. A potent striker, with excellent speed and explosiveness, Kape has proven in the last two fights that he is one to watch at Flyweight. With good takedown defense, solid cardio and sneaky wrestling/grappling abilities, Kape has the tools to contend for the belt.
As for a prediction, I have Kape winning. While Bontorin may land a takedown or two, Kape isn’t one to settle on his back. Should he be able to pop back up, the fight is in his world. One in which is leaps and bounds above Bontorin’s. Having recorded two straight first round knockouts, I feel like a third isn’t out of the question. With that said, I predict that Kape wins via knockout.
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170 lbs.: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev – We have a showdown in the Welterweight division, as Jack Della Maddalena takes on Ramazan “Gorets” Emeev. Since dropping his first two professional fights, Maddalena has rattled off eleven consecutive wins. The Aussie’s most recent win though was his biggest to date, as he knocked out Pete Rodrigues in a successful UFC debut. Meanwhile, Emeev is coming off a split decision defeat to Danny Roberts. The defeat being a rarity for Emeev, who has now only lost twice in a little more than seven years.
No longer ranked among the top fifteen Welterweight’s, Emeev has an opportunity to put a halt to a rising prospect and get his name back in the mix. A former M-1 Champion, Emeev brings forth vast experience and a well rounded game. While the Russian is a kickboxer, he has often used it to flow into takedowns. A formula that has seen Emeev land sixteen takedowns in seven fights. Not afraid to grind down opponents, Emeev has proven that he is well conditioned. An important factor for the Russian, as Maddalena is a non-stop fighter with a tank on him. The Aussie is also an excellent striker, who has legitimate power and an arsenal at his disposal. Looking to stop opponents at whatever cost, Maddalena has proven that his chin is made of cast iron. While his takedown defense may be an area of concern, his BJJ and ability to work off his back have often aided to getting back on the feet.
Although a tough fight to predict, I’m going to side with Maddalena. Knowing very well that Emeev may see success wrestling Maddalena, I believe as the fight wanes, the tide will start to turn. Not because Emeev will necessarily be gassed, but Maddalena’s BJJ and ability to get back up will be disheartening over time. On the feet, it will be Maddalena’s fight to lose, as he is by far the more comfortable and superior striking. With legitimate power, I see him eventually connecting and putting Emeev in a bad spot. One that eventually the referee will need to step-in to halt the bout. With that said, I predict that Maddalena wins via TKO.
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UFC 275 ‘Prelims’ Card On ESPN2/ESPN+ (8 p.m. ET):
185 lbs.: Brendan Allen vs. Jacob Malkoun – The preliminary card headliner comes in the Middleweight division, as Brendan “All In” Allen takes on Jacob “Mamba” Malkoun. A winner of three of the last four fights, Allen is teetering on being inside the division’s top fifteen rankings. At only 26 years old and with his striking evolution, we might not be far off from seeing Allen elevate himself into a contender in a few years. Meanwhile, Malkoun comes into this fight on a two-fight win streak. Having put the UFC debut knockout loss as a mere blimp on the radar, Malkoun has proven that he is a player at 185 pounds.
This is a really intriguing fight, as both men are excellent fighters. Allen, being a ground specialist with superb submission abilities, has crafted his striking to a point where he can be comfortably reliant on it. While Chris Curtis wound of getting the best of Allen on the feet recently, the American did happen to outclass both Sam Alvey and Punahele Soriano. With his game rounding out, Allen’s ceiling looks to be rising by the fight. The same could be said about Malkoun, who features a well rounded game. On the feet, Malkoun is an active striker that features a crisp jab. Having excellent wrestling, strength and cardio, Malkoun can easily grind down an opponent for fifteen minutes.
As for a prediction, I’m going to side with Allen. While Malkoun has showed off his well rounded abilities, his wrestling has really shined in the last two fights. Landing fourteen takedowns and nearly twenty-one minutes of control time, Malkoun had little issues getting the fight to the mat. The problem with that in this fight, is Allen wouldn’t mind being on the ground. With ten of fifteen stoppage victories coming via submission, Malkoun would be putting himself in danger against the grappler in Allen. On the feet, Malkoun has a great jab and is active. However, Allen has a five inch height and two inch reach advantage. Factors that should aide him in getting off his own offense. In the end, I feel like Allen has several advantages and will win this fight via decision.
145 lbs.: Seungwoo Choi vs. Josh Culibao – We have a showdown in the Featherweight division, as Seung “Sting” Woo Choi takes on Joshua “Kuya” Culibao. Seeing a three-fight win streak snapped in a recent defeat, Choi returns to the octagon looking to get back in the win column. Having fought three times last year, Choi makes his first appearance in 2022 already halfway through the year. Meanwhile, Culibao comes into this fight off his first UFC victory. Unable to capitalize on the victory earlier due to withdrawing from a fight against Damon Jackson, Culibao returns to octagon off a year layoff – the longest of his young career.
This fight could be fireworks, as both men have been known to bite on their mouthpiece and swing. Choi is a striker, who has quick hands and some stinging leg kicks. With cardio and good takedown defense too, Choi can be a handful to deal with on the feet. However, Choi’s grappling is an area of concern. Having been submitted twice in the past five fights, Choi’s submission defense is a vulnerability that needs to be worked on if he would were to make at run at 145 pounds. The same can’t be said about Culibao, who has yet to be submitted in his career. A fairly well rounded fighter, Culibao brings forth excellent takedown defense, power, movement and distance control. A striker, who tends to use guerilla warfare-like tactics, Culibao will often dart in with his attacks and then falls back. With several twenty-five minute fights under the Aussie’s belt, his cardio is pretty good.
As for a prediction, I’m going with Culibao. While I expect this fight to be close, I believe Culibao’s striking style could lull Choi into a slower paced fight – with Culibao landing the more effective shots. Wrestling could be a key factor in this fight, which you’d think would favor Choi. However, Culibao has excellent takedown defense and despite failing to yet land a takedown in the UFC, I do believe his wrestling is evolving to a point where he should see some success as early as this fight. So with all that said, I prediction Culibao to win his second straight fight via decision.
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145 lbs.: Steve Garcia vs. Hayisaer Maheshate – We have a barnburner in the Lightweight division, as UFC newcomer Hayisaer Maheshate takes on Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia. After earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series seven month’s ago, Maheshate will finally make his octagon debut. Heading into this bout on a six-fight win streak, the China native comes into this contest with excellent momentum. Meanwhile, Garcia comes into this fight off his first UFC victory. A fight that was chaotic and saw Garcia battle back from two knockdowns to secure a TKO victory. A fellow DWCS alum, Garcia will look to prove that he’s the real deal.
With little tape on Maheshate, my analysis of him solely comes from his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series. A fight in which was dicey early, as Maheshate appeared to be stunned several times. However, Maheshate battled back and took the final two rounds. What I took from his fight, is that he’s got heart and is well conditioned. To get hurt several times and have the cardio to still go a hard fifteen is impressive. What I also gathered is that Maheshate is an active striker, who’s arsenal includes several leg kick variations and flying knee’s. While his takedown defense and ability to get his back off the cage looked good too, his striking defense is the area of concern. Holding his hands low, he can be hit and obviously hurt.
Then there is Garcia, who too knows something about coming back in a fight. Getting dropped twice in his most recent fight, despite controlling nearly 4:30 of the first five minutes, Garcia made his first UFC victory very difficult. Normally a potent striker, who is rangy and versatile, Garcia showed that he does have some wrestling abilities to fall back on. However, make no mistake, with nine of his twelve victories coming via knockout, Garcia comes to stop foes. If there is anything certain in this fight, it’s going to be a slugfest. One that is hard to predict, but I’m ultimately going to back Maheshate. Which is surprising because his level of competition prior to DWCS is dreadful. Yet, his fight on the show impressed me to the point where I believe his level of activity and arsenal on the feet will cause fits for Garcia. So with that said, I predict that Maheshate will win via TKO.
170 lbs.: Andre Fialho vs. Jake Matthews – We have a scrap in the Welterweight division, as Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews takes on Andre Fialho. Returning to the octagon after a fourteen month layoff, Matthews will look to shake off any rust and get back in the win column. Still only 27 years old, Matthews has plenty of time to unlock his full potential. Meanwhile, Fialho comes into this fight on a two-fight win streak. Having begun the win-streak on April 16th, 2022, Fialho will attempt to win his third straight fight in a mere 56 days.
After debuting against Michel Pereira and giving the Brazilian a tough fight, Fialho looked poised to find success in the UFC. Breaking through against Miguel Baeza, the Portugal native didn’t bask in victory. Instead, he booked a fight twenty-one days later. Winning yet again via an impressive knockout, Fialho only sought out another quick return. One that comes a mere thirty-five days later. A record breaker and soon to be Dana White’s favorite fighter, Fialho has a real chance at creating some massive buzz with another victory.
As for the fight, I’m going with Fialho. A clear problem in the Welterweight division, Fialho brings forth power and excellent counter-striking. While Fialho appeared to come in the UFC with some cardio concerns, a hard fought fifteen minute fight against Pereira showed otherwise. Aside from that, Fialho appears to be the real deal. This fight though may not be easy, as Jake Matthews will be making his fifteenth appearance inside the octagon. Only 27 years old, Matthews is still evolving. With a fairly well rounded game, Matthews is comfortable wherever the fight goes. However, Matthews will adapt and fight to an opponents weakness. Not having seen Fialho have to fend off too many takedown attempts, I’m fairly certain the Celtic Kid will look to wrestle. A smart approach, but one I don’t believe he will be able to maintain for three rounds. Once Fialho has space, I foresee him cracking and finishing Matthews via TKO.
135 lbs.: Danaa Batgerel vs. Kyung Ho Kang – We have an intriguing clash of styles in the Bantamweight division, as “Mr. Perfect” Kyung Ho Kang takes on Danaa “Storm” Batgerel. After seeing a three-fight win streak snapped in a recent defeat, Kang returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022 looking to get back in the win column. Previous to the defeat, Kang had won six of his last seven. Meanwhile, Batgerel returns to the octagon less than three month’s after being knocked out by Chris Gutierrez. Seemingly looking to get back on the horse and put aside that defeat, Batgerel will attempt to get back in the win column in short order. Prior to the loss, Baterel had rattled off three straight first round stoppage victories.
This is a tough fight to call, as I see various aspects potentially impacting the result. For one, getting knocked out is never great. Usually, fighters will take some time off to recover. However, Batgerel is returning to the octagon less than three month’s since being stopped. A major risk, but one that Batgerel seems determined to hurdle. The other aspect in this fight, is what Kang are we going to see? Never knowing if Kang is a striker or a wrestler, Kang just seemingly fights in a way where he barely wins. In fact, in Kang’s last seven fights, five have gone to the scorecards. Of those five, four have been decided via split decision.
As for a prediction, I’m siding with Batgerel. Despite the concerns regarding returning too soon, I know what Batgerel brings to the table. He’s a fearsome striker, who has legitimate knockout power and isn’t afraid to brawl. While his takedown defense needs some work, Batgerel has shown an ability to pop back up. Kang, being physically strong and having some good wrestling abilities, will certainly put that to the test. Landing 2.23 takedowns at a 59% clip, Kang could very well find success implementing a heavy wrestling approach. I however, believe that Batgerel will avoid being smothered and land the more damaging blows on the feet – eventually leading to a TKO victory.
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115 lbs.: Silvana Gomez Juarez vs. Na Liang – We have a clash in the Women’s Strawweight division, as Silvana “La Malvada” Gomez Juarez takes on Nia “Dragon Girl” Liang. Dropping the first two fights inside the octagon, Juarez will hope that the third time’s the charm. Otherwise, a third consecutive loss could spell the end of the Argentinian’s tenure in the UFC. Meanwhile, Liang comes into this fight looking to rebound after an unsuccessful UFC debut. A fight that was wild, and showed that Liang belonged in the UFC. Prior to the defeat, Liang had rattled off five consecutive wins.
This fight could really flip on a dime, as Juarez carries a vast advantage on the feet and Liang has the advantage on the ground. However, in two fights inside the octagon, Juarez has been extremely vulnerable to grapplers. Showing little semblance of submission defense, Juarez has been stopped in the opening round twice by armbar. Given Liang isn’t one to strike much, instead looking to wrestle and get the fight to mat early, it’s hard not to favor her. Especially considering Juarez has a mere 16% takedown defense. So with all that said, I predict that Liang will win via submission.
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135 lbs.: Joselyne Edwards vs. Ramona Pascual – The curtain jerker comes in the Women’s Featherweight division, as Joselyne “La Pantera” Edwards takes on Ramona Pascual. Returning to the octagon for the first time in 2022, Edwards will seek to end a two-fight skid. Having exclusively fought at Bantamweight, Edwards makes the trek up to Featherweight hoping to find a jolt. Meanwhile, Pascual comes into this fight off an unsuccessful UFC debut. A fight where Pascual showed incredible toughness, but just couldn’t find a way to effectively wrestle and smother Josiane Nunes. Previous to the defeat, Pascual had won four straight.
When Pascual debuted against the aforementioned Nunes, I did not think she would see the scorecards. Prior to the debut, Pascual had seen six of her seven fights halted inside the distance. She had also fought a low level of competition, as her opponents combined for a mere 10-9 record. However, Pascual faired better than thought, showing off toughness and some wrestling abilities. The latter being key, particularly for this fight, as Edwards has been exploited several times for her porous takedown defense. In the Panamanian’s last two fights, she has been taken down nine times and controlled for roughly twenty-three minutes. Given she is making the jump up in weight and Pascual is built for the Featherweight division, there is a realistic chance that Edwards could yet again be neutralized on the ground.
As for a prediction, I’m going with Pascual. Even though Edwards holds an advantage on the feet, mainly with her reach and volume edge, I can’t see how the weight disadvantage is going to her aid her ghastly takedown defense and inability to get back to her feet. So with that said, perhaps against my better judgement, I predict that Pascual wins via decision.
The Main-event comes in the Light Heavyweight division, as the Champion Glover Teixeira makes his first title defense against challenger Jiri “Denisa” Prochazka. An unlikely Championship run, Teixeira at 42 years young, became the oldest first time Champion in UFC history. Having won six straight, Teixeira clearly hasn’t met father time. Meanwhile, Prochazka comes into this fight on a twelve-fight win streak. With only two of those wins coming inside the distance, Prochazka has certainly caught the attention of the UFC to be granted this title shot. One that I personally am fine with.
Debuting in 2012, at 32 years old, Teixeira quickly made him presence known and challenged Jon Jones for the title in 2014. Unsuccessful, Teixeira would be a perennial top contender, who just couldn’t win the important fight to get himself back in position to via another title shot. Thinking his prime may have been wasted due to a visa issue, Teixeira would do the unthinkable. With gas left in the tank and the perfect storm of Jon Jones vacating the title, Teixeira would rattle off five straight wins and challenge for the title. A successful challenge at that, as Teixeira submitted Jan Blachowicz to become the oldest first time Champion in UFC history at 42. A well rounded fighter, Teixeira can be described as a boxer who has excellent wrestling, grappling and submission abilities. Having largely banked on taking opponents down during this streak, Teixeira has stopped five opponents – four of which came via submission.
Despite being out for over a year, Prochazka shouldn’t be hampered by any rust. A frantic fighter, who looks to blitzkrieg opponents, Prochazka is a scary opponent to face. While he does leave openings to get cracked, more often than not, he’s the one who has done the cracking. Backed by twenty-five knockout victories, twenty of which came in round one, Prochazka game is pretty simple – knock my opponent out early. With a clear speed advantage and athleticism, there is a chance that Prochazka looks like Sonic out there with Teixeira.
As for a prediction, I’m going with Teixeira. Despite being at a slight height and size disadvantage, as well as lacking the speed, athleticism and striking output that Prochazka brings forth, Teixeira has proven that all he needs is one takedown to change the complexation of a fight. Given Prochazka came into the UFC with some takedown defense concerns, and has been rather untested in that department in two fights inside the octagon, I feel like Teixeira can absolutely capitalize on that. Having endured punishment in several fights during this winning streak, I’m not saying Teixeira can afford to eat shots, but he has proven that he can overcome trouble and get the fight to mat. So with all that said, give me the 42 year old Teixeira to win via submission.
The Co-Main event comes in the Women’s Flyweight division, as Champion Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko makes her seventh title defense against challenger Taila Santos. A dominant force, Shevchenko has largely cleared out the Flyweight division. With eight straight wins, and little to no resistance, the Bullet may be looking to challenge for the Bantamweight title after this fight. Meanwhile, Santos comes into this fight on a four-fight win streak. Having taken out several top fifteen foes along the way, the Brazilian appears to be up to the task of challenging for the belt.
No disrespect to Santos, as she is one of the stiffer test Shevchenko will have faced in the Flyweight division, but ain’t no one beating the Kyrgyzstan Hit Woman. Currently the number one women’s pound for pound fighter, in my eyes at least, Shevchenko is simply on another level. A complete fighter, Shevchenko is mainly a striker who is simply put, calculated and dynamic. With immense physical strength and cardio for days, the Champion isn’t someone that can be bullied or fades during fights. Add excellent wrestling and grappling, and it’s hard not to find anything but strength’s in Shevchenko’s game.
Trying not be completely dismal of Santos, the Brazilian has a well crafted game herself. A powerful striker with debilitating leg kicks, Santos has proven to be a real problem on the feet. Recording three knockdowns in the last two fights, Santos certainly has a puncher’s chance to cause a disruption in this fight. With strength and wrestling as well, Santos has shown that she can get her foes to the mat – landing thirteen takedowns in six fights inside the octagon.
As for a prediction, if there was any doubt, I have Shevchenko. She’s leaps and bounds above the rest and until she finally goes up to challenge for the Bantamweight title, I can’t see her facing any resistance at this time. If I were to be honest, Jessica Andrade was Shevchenko’s toughest test. In ways, Santos is similar to her fellow Brazilian, but I’d favor Andrade if they ever fought. Nevertheless, I believe Shevchenko gets it done via TKO.
We have a rematch in the Women’s Strawweight division, as two former Champions in Zhang “Magnum” Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk clash. A loser of two straight, albeit the last fight coming via split decision, Weili returns to the octagon looking to reverse her fortune. Not taking an easier fight, Weili will look to closing the chapter on Jedrzejczyk as her route back to the title. Meanwhile, Jedrzejczyk returns to the octagon for the first time since her epic ‘Fight of the Year” battle against Weili . Taking a little over two years off, Jedrzejczyk comes into this bout recharged and looking to recapture her throne.
As the third to last fight on the card, this is a real treat to the fans. Both women are two of the best competitors the UFC roster has to offer and will once again lock horns in what is bound to be another barnburner. Weili , a well rounded fighter, is mainly an active striker that boast power and cardio. With excellent takedown defense and some wrestling chops, the physically strong Weili is one of the more complete fighters in the division. Which could be said about Jedrzejczyk too. An active striker as well, Jedrzejczyk is technical and methodically on the feet. With excellent cardio to back up her high pace, Jedrzejczyk has landed over 125 strikes in eight of her fights. A statistic that assuredly seems to be hers by a landslide. Lastly on Jedrzejczyk, she has solid takedown defense and isn’t someone to accept bottom position.
As for a prediction, I’m siding with Jedrzejczyk. While I picked Weili in the first fight, there was an aura around her at the time, that seemed to reflect a fighter who was brimming with confidence. Having now loss back-to-back fights, I’m not saying that confidence is gone, but the aura is no longer of invisibility. Jedrzejczyk suffered through it too, but that was four years ago. In the end, I believe that as long as Jedrzejczyk can avoid being doubled up by Weili’s power shots, that her output will reign through. With two years off to recharge the battery, I’m expect Jedrzejczyk to show out and win via decision.
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