We have a scrap in the Lightweight division, as Benoit Saint-Denis takes on newcomer Gabriel Miranda. Returning to the octagon three months after tasting UFC victory for the first time, Saint-Denis will look to make it two straight. On home soil, for only the second time in his career, Saint-Denis will have the crowds energy to feed off. Meanwhile, Miranda comes into his UFC debut on a three-fight win streak. Having fought for Pancrase and Brave FC, it will be interesting to see to how the 32 year old debutant does on the biggest stage.
When watching film on Miranda, he certainly looks to be an excellent grappler and dangerous submission artist. As evident by fifteen of his sixteen wins coming via submission. However, he has faced low level competition for much of his career and has yet to defeat anyone with double-digit wins. Knowing that and given this will be Saint-Denis’ third UFC appearance, I’m not certain Miranda is truly ready to take on this caliber of an opponent. The only aspect working in his favor though, is the fact that Saint-Denis also happens to be a grappler with excellent submissions. While Miranda could catch Saint-Denis, I’m in the belief that his grappling has been more effective on lesser foes. With that said, I predict Saint-Denis to feed off the crowd and win via submission.
We have an intriguing battle in the Bantamweight division, as Khalid Taha takes on promotional newcomer Cristian Quinonez. Coming into this fight off back-to-back losses and with only one win in five fights inside the octagon, Taha urgently needs a victory. Otherwise, his four-year UFC tenure could come to an end. Meanwhile, Quinonez comes into his UFC debut on a four-fight win streak. Having been out of action for nearly a year after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series due to Visa issues, Quinonez is undoubtedly chomping at the bit to debut under the bright lights.
When analyzing this fight, it’s hard not to notice that Taha has failed to fight twice in a calendar year since 2019. At 29 years old, time is on his side, but his prime is arguably wasting away. Regardless, Taha returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022. Known for his striking, Taha certainly packs a punch. Where he lacks though is within his activity and precision, as he is landing a mere 2.69 significant strikes per minute at a 33% accuracy. Also lacking with his defensive wrestling, Taha has been taken down sixteen times in five fights. Given Quinonez is well rounded, I see problems for Taha. With solid leg kicks on the feet and a knack for taking the fight to the ground, Quinonez should see his grappling and ground-and-pound shine. While I will credit Taha for never accepting bottom position, he still has ended up there too often and with only one win in five fights, the proof is in the pudding. So with that said, I predict Quinonez to win via decision.
The curtain jerker comes in the Women’s Featherweight division, as newcomer Ailin Perez takes on Stephanie Egger. Turning professional in November of 2018, Perez has rattled off seven wins in eight fights. Currently on a two-fight win streak, Perez has impressively earned a shot in the UFC in less than four years in the sport. Meanwhile, Egger returns to the octagon in less than a month since a controversial tap saw her stopped in the opening round against Mayra Bueno Silva. Looking to rebound in short order, Egger will attempt to win her third fight in the past four.
After watching the majority of Perez’s fights, it’s clear that she has talent. Often trying to find her way inside, Perez will seek out the body lock. From there, she is a master at getting the fight to the ground. With good grappling, Perez does a good job at advancing and setting up her submissions or vicious ground-and-pound. The concern though I have for Perez and it’s part of why I’m not picking her, she has yet to face anyone worthwhile. Also, Egger is a Judo gold medalist in the 2010 U23 European Championships. If Perez looks to get inside, Egger will send her for a ride. With solid grappling and good submission abilities, Egger has proven that even her guard is a dangerous position to be in. Although, I see her controlling the majority of the fight in top control, Perez could reverse some positions. In the end though, this is a step-up in competition for Perez that I don’t see her getting by. So with that said, I predict that Egger wins via submission.
vs. Kamaru Usman 3 – With the matchup evened up at 1-1, and due to Kamaru Usman’s long reign in the UFC, it’s only right that a trilogy take place next. The only problem though is, timing. With Usman suffering a clean knockout, it’s to be expected that he needs time off. However, with the UFC targeting a return to the UK in March or April, things could get murky for a trilogy.
vs. Jorge Masvidal – Perhaps the biggest winner based on the result other than Colby Covington, was Jorge Masvidal. Who despite being on a three-fight losing streak, has an outside shot of getting a title shot based on timing and history.
vs. Khamzat Chimaev – In less than a month, Chimaev will face Nate Diaz at UFC 279. With a victory, Dana White already has stated that Chimaev will most likely earn a title shot. Given the nature of Usman getting knocked out and the UFC returning to the UK in early 2023, it’s very possible that the Russian gets a crack at the belt. Even over Masvidal, who at the end of the day, has lost three straight fights.
vs. Robert Whittaker – Pending the former Middleweight Champion can get by Marvin Vettori, this once scheduled bout in 2021, would make a lot of sense to re-book.
vs. winner of Jared Cannonier vs. Sean Strickland – Should Robert Whittaker falter against Marvin Vettori, the next logical fight would be against the winner of Cannonier vs. Strickland.
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Merab Dvalishvili vs. winner of Cory Sandhagen vs. Song Yadong – Picking up the biggest win of his career over Jose Aldo, Dvalishvili moved himself one step closer to a title shot. However, given Marlon Vera’s performances of late, I’m not certain that Dvalishvili being ranked higher will matter in selecting the next title contender. Given that notion, in less than a month, Sandhagen will fight Yadong. The winner, who would be a top five foe, makes sense for the Georgian’s next fight.
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Lucie Pudilova vs. Mayra Bueno Silva – Returning to the UFC in impressive fashion, Pudilova could become a player at Bantamweight in due time. Given her style and finishing prowess, a fight against Silva would be a lot of fun.
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Tyson Pedro vs. Alonzo Menifield – Needing only 65 seconds to dispose of Harry Hunsucker, Pedro has now rattled off two straight since returning from a three-year hiatus. Needing a bump up in competition, a fight against a fellow knockout artist in Alonzo Menifield would be ideal.
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Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Pavlovich – Scoring an upset victory over the previously undefeated Alexandr Romanov, Tybura has proved that he is a mainstay at 265 pounds. A division, which quite frankly, is in flux. Given the murky title picture and that Curtis Blaydes is likely next for the winner of Cyril Gane and Tai Tuivasa, that leaves Sergey Pavlovich seeking an opponent. Tybura, with six wins in the last seven fights could be that guy.
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Jared Gordon vs. Claudio Puelles – Rebounding with a victory over Leonardo Santos, Gordon has now won four of his last five fights. While still not quite in the mix for ranked foes, a fight against Claudio Puelles, who is on a five fight win streak would be ideal and beneficial for both.
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Ange Loosa vs. Mike Malott – If there is one thing certain, Loosa is not only an entertaining fighter, but he has a hell of a chin. A fun next fight for him could be against Mike Malott, who hasn’t fought since stopping Mickey Gall in April.
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Amir Albazi vs. Tim Elliott – If there was anything clear about Albazi’s return to the octagon, it’s that he is a future contender. What should be next, is a ranked foe. A challenging one too in the form of former title challenger Tim Elliott.
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Aoriqileng vs. winner of Alateng Heili vs. Chad Anheilger – After back-to-back losses, Aoriqileng moved back up to Bantamweight. A wise decision, as he has rattled off two straight wins. Beginning his ascension at 135 pounds, a next progression fight that would make sense is against the winner of Alateng Heili and Chad Anheilger.
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Victor Altamirano vs. Alan Nascimento – Impressively notching his first UFC victory with a stoppage win over Daniel da Silva, Altamirano is ready to climb. A logical next fight, could be against Alan Nascimento, who too just tasted UFC victory for the first time in May.
Following a stunning UFC 278 card, the aftermath has left us with intriguing matches to make. For this article, I’ll be focusing on the losers on the card, with the exception of Luke Rockhold, who retired following a gutsy defeat against Paulo Costa.
vs. Leon Edwards 3 – Closing in on a record-tying sixteen straight wins in the UFC, with less than a minute left, Usman was flattened by a perfectly timed head kick by Leon Edwards. A stunning moment, that will unquestionable live in mixed martial arts lore forever. Unsure of what his timeline is to return, especially given he suffered a knockout, Usman undeniably deserves an immediate rematch. The question though, is if Edwards takes a fight before Usman is cleared. Which is very possible given the UFC may be returning to the UK in March or April.
vs. the loser of Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw – Still ranked among the top five of the division, Aldo, regardless of the loss, still is within striking distance of a title shot. At 35 years old and with eighteen years in the game, it’s plausible that the legend could call it a career. However, should he continue, I could see the Brazilian garnering the loser of Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw. A fight that, with a victory, would catapult him into a title shot.
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Wu Yanan vs. Ji Yeon Kim – Following her fifth loss in six UFC fights, it’s likely that Yanan will be cut. However, should she stick on the roster, a fight against a struggling Ji Yeon Kim would make the most sense.
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Harry Hunsucker vs. Aleksa Camur – After a third straight loss inside the octagon, there is a chance that Hunsucker’s UFC tenure could be at an end. If not, Aleksa Camur, who is 1-2 in the UFC and has less than 10 professional fights would make the most sense.
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Alexandr Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov – Despite suffering his first professional defeat, Romanov has time and time, shown that he has the talent to be a threat in this Heavyweight division. What he needs to shore up, is his conditioning. Still ranked in the top fifteen, a fight against a fellow ranked Blagoy Ivanov would be a challenging next fight.
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Leonardo Santos vs. Chris Gruetzemacher – After a third consecutive loss and at 42 years old, it’s probably the end of the road for Santos. However, with an event in Brazil in January of 2023, I could see the Brazilian return for a farewell fight. A good opponent for that could be Chris Gruetzemacher.
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Sean Woodson vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan – Despite being dropped twice and nearly stopped, Woodson managed to take advantage of a point deduction and fight to a draw. Obviously compromised throughout the fight, it’s a testament that he was able to withstand more punishment and never relent. While a rematch doesn’t seem necessary, a fight against Melsik Baghdasaryan would be an exciting striking affair.
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Luis Saldana vs. David Onama – After dropping Sean Woodson multiple times, seemingly fumbling the bag to finish the fight, Saldana elected to throw an illegal knee to a downed opponent. In reality, a few punches would of halted the fight. However, due to the illegal knee, the action was halted and a point was taken away from Saldana. The end result of the fight, a split draw. With that result, Saldana earned half his pay. Which shouldn’t be the case, but it’s the UFC model. Regardless, given his style, a fun fight against David Onama would be pure entertainment.
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A.J. Fletcher vs. Jason Witt – Nearly taking Ange Loosa out in round two, Fletcher succumbed to the war of nutrition. Ultimately dropping his second straight fight in the UFC, Fletcher should get a third stab to make things right. If so, a perfect next fight would be against Jason Witt. A veteran who has dropped two straight and needs to get back on track.
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Francisco Figueiredo vs. Charles Johnson – Attempting to knock off a ranked foe in Amir Albazi, Figueiredo found out that their are levels to the game – as he was submitted in the opening round. With the UFC back in Brazil in January, perhaps he can try to rebound on him soil against Charles Johnson. A fighter who seems like he would relish the opportunity to spoil the night.
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Jay Perrin vs. Fernando Garcia – Valiant in defeat, Perrin is better than his 10-6 record shows. While he may not be of Championship quality, he certainly is exciting and has the skills necessary to win some fights on the biggest stage. An appropriate next fight would be against Fernando Garcia. A fight who unsuccessfully debuted in May of 2022.
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Daniel da Silva vs. J.P. Buys – After three straight losses, it’s very possible that da Silva may of fought his last fight with the UFC. If not, J.P. Buys who has lost three straight as well makes sense in a winner take all fight.
*I rate the fighters based on career points, average points in victory, most points scored in victory and lowest points scored in victory. To qualify as well, you need at least two UFC wins (A new wrinkle that will go up to three soon).*
Best Plays
9kRange
Tyson Pedro ($9,500) – The highest priced fighter on the slate, Pedro checks in as my seventh rated fighter. However, he offers an immense ceiling in this matchup. Having been paired up with Harry Hunsucker, who has yet to make it to the four minute mark in all twelve professional fights, you get the gist that this fight will end inside round one. Given Hunsucker has been the nail in five of those twelve fights, with two losses in the UFC coming in at a combined two minutes and forty three seconds, I’d say it’s likely that Pedro is in store for some big points.
Kamaru Usman ($9,100) – The King of MMA and DraftKings, Usman is my number one rated fighter. Currently on a nineteen fight win streak, with fifteen coming inside the octagon, Usman has given his backers comfort. Points too! Not only number one in average career points at 121.6 and most points scored in victory at 194.6, Usman is second in average points in victory at 121.6. In other words, the Welterweight Kingpin is a must play.
Alexandr Romanov ($9,000) – My third rated fighter on the card, I’m tepid to play Romanov in this spot. Having been slowly built up in the Heavyweight division, Romanov has defeated five opponents inside the octagon that are a combined 15-24 in the UFC. Even worse, the last two fighters he defeated combined for a 5-14 UFC record. Obviously talented and very much a future in this Heavyweight division, Marcin Tybura will be by far his toughest fight to date. A ranked fighter, who previous to his last fight, had rattled off five straight wins. Statistically Romanov is excellent, but I’d exercise caution.
8kRange
Jared Gordon ($8,900) – My fourth rated fighter, Gordon is a workhorse, who in the right matchup, is capable of putting up solid numbers. While durability concerns are to be noted, the same could be said about Leonardo Santos. At 42 years old, the Brazilian has some of the poorest conditioning in the UFC. Should this fight even enter a round two, Gordon will likely takeover.
Paulo Costa ($8,700) – While I’m wary of Costa cutting down to 185 pounds, and how much it takes out of him, he looked really good on the scales. Rated eighth in my rankings, Costa isn’t overly crushing it with an average points in victory at 99.14. However, given his knockout prowess and opponent Luke Rockhold’s layoff and durability concerns, the Brazilian could be a good pivot.
Merab Dvalishvili ($8,200) – My second rated fighter, Dvalishvili has been an exceptional play in victory and defeat. Scoring 99.2 and 73.5 points in his lone two UFC losses, Dvalishvili is averaging an absurd 86.35 points. In fact, Dvalishvili averages more in defeat than six other qualified fighters do in victory, including opponent Jose Aldo. First in average points in victory at 126.21, as well as second in both career average points and highest points in victory, Dvalishvili may be the biggest bargain ever at 8.2k.
Jose Aldo ($8,000) – Obviously, Dvalishvili has proven to be one of the best fighters to pick in DraftKings. However, one could make the point that the Georgian has never faced anyone nearly as good as Jose Aldo. A former Featherweight Champion, Aldo is currently on a three-fight win streak. Checking in at twelfth among the seventeen qualified fighters on the card, Aldo’s numbers don’t jump off the page. Yet, at $200 bucks less, the legend certainly has the takedown defense and striking that could take out Dvalishvili.
7k and Under Range
Ange Loosa ($7,800) – With a 2-3 record over the last five fights, Loosa doesn’t scream must play. However, with several big ticket fighters at the top of the bill, you’ll need to save somewhere. Known for his knockout abilities, which has been the result of five of his eight victories, Loosa is a fine play at 7.8k.
Jay Perrin ($7,700) – His record of 10-5 may turn away backers, but Perrin’s woes came early in his career. 7-2 in the last nine fights, and with a well rounded game backed by cardio and wrestling, Perrin has the tools to pull off this upset. One that I could very well see happening, given opponent Aoriqileng has had issues with wrestlers.
Luke Rockhold ($7,500) – My fifth rated fighter, the former Middleweight Champion has the best value in the 7k range. While there are several red flags surrounding him, regarding the three-year layoff and his durability issues, Rockhold is still a dangerous fighter. Top seven in both average career points and points in victory, as well as top ten in most points scored in victory, Rockhold is well worth the risk.
Luis Saldana ($7,400) – The seventh rated fighter, which is the worst among qualified fighters, you might be asking why I listed Saldana as a best play. Well, known to throw an abundance of kicks, I believe his style could be extremely effective against the towering, yet lanky Sean Woodson. Given the talent pool at the top of the bill, I’d give Saldana a look to save some salary.
Marcin Tybura ($7,200) – My tenth rated fighter, I’m willing to take a flier on Tybura. Not only is he Alexandr Romanov’s toughest fight to date, but before a recent defeat to Alexander Volkov, Tybura had rattled off five straight wins. At 7.2k, Tybura looks to be a bargain.
Fades
Sean Woodson ($8,800) – Rated eleventh in my rankings, Woodson is priced a tad to high for my liking. Averaging a meager 88.47 in victory, Woodson has only once eclipsed 100 points in three victories. The two times he didn’t, he scored a meager 60.7 and 82.2 points.
Lucie Pudilova ($8,300) – Rated sixteenth out of seventeen qualified fighters, Pudilova is not worth the 8.3k price tag. Averaging 72.3 points in victory, which is the second lowest on the card, there is little upside to picking the Czech. Even if she is facing Wu Yanan, who is 1-4 in the last five fights.
Optimal Lineup: (Based on my 17 qualified fighters)
Kamaru Usman $9,100 – Averages 121.6 points in victory
Alexandr Romanov $9,000 – Averages 110.2 points in victory
Jared Gordon $8,900 – Averages 106.63 points in victory
Merab Dvalishvili $8,200 – Averages 126.21 points in victory
Luke Rockhold $7,500 – Averages 101.95 points in victory
Francisco Figueiredo $7,000 – Averages 84.2 points in victory
170 lbs.: UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards 2 – The main event comes in the Welterweight division, as Champion Kamaru Usman looks to successfully defend his title for the sixth time against challenger Leon Edwards. A winner of nineteen straight, with fifteen coming inside the octagon, Usman has established himself as arguably the pound-for-pound king in mixed martial arts. Having taken out several formidable challengers, including Colby Covington twice, Usman is closing in on records and legacy status of being denoted as the greatest of all-time. Meanwhile, Edwards comes into this fight unbeaten in his last ten fights. The last loss Edwards suffered was against no other than Usman, when they first encountered each other back in 2015. Evolving since then into an elite Welterweight, Edwards has gone above and beyond to garner this well earned title shot.
Excited to see how this chess match plays out, I’m siding with Usman. Having been a believer in the Nigerian Nightmare since early in his career, I was certain he would become a Champion. While I did notably pick against the welterweight kingpin against Tyron Woodley and in the first Colby Covington fight, Usman clearly has even exceeded my expectations. A well rounded fighter, who’s wrestling can only be matched by Covington, Usman has more or less elected to strike lately. With a lightning quick jab, precision and power, Usman has turned himself into one of the most feared strikers. In other words, he’s the complete package. As of Edwards, he too is well rounded. Boasting a technical striking game, which is built off precision, Edwards looks to piece up opponents on the feet. An opportune wrestler too, Edwards has landed a takedown in eight of his last ten fights – with one of the fights he didn’t land a takedown being in a shortened fight due to an accidental eye poke against Belal Muhammad.
As for why I have Usman winning, he is simply better everywhere. With exceptional wrestling and having never been taken down, Usman neutralizes a part of Edwards game. On the feet, Usman carries more power, is more active and his jab alone can cause havoc. Obviously a nightmare matchup for anyone, it’s hard to see a challenger other than Colby Covington that can defeat Usman. That’s no knock on Edwards, who is exceptionally talent, but the reality of the situation in my opinion. With that said, I believe Usman will eventually find the mark at some point in the fight and finish Edwards via TKO.
185 lbs.: Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold – The co-main of the event comes in the Middleweight division, as Paulo Costa takes on the former Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold. After back-to-back losses, and Dana White stating that Costa would never fight at Middleweight again due to weight cutting issues, somehow the former title challenger will be given yet another crack. With an opportunity to prove he can make the weight, Costa will also have a chance to knock off a former Champion and re-position himself at 185 pounds. Meanwhile, Rockhold returns to the octagon after a three-year hiatus. Having mulled retirement and battled injuries during this time away, Rockhold will look to shed the rust and re-emerge his presence in this division. At 37 years old and with back-to-back stoppage defeats, this may be Rockhold’s final dance.
A fight bound to end inside the distance. Costa is the smarter play. Boasting high output, power, pressure, durability and accuracy, there is little reason not to side with the Brazilian. However, I am. Obviously between Rockhold’s lengthy layoff and durability concerns, there are certainly red flags to be cautious about. Yet, I can’t help but to wonder how much Costa is draining himself to get down to Middleweight. I mean, a little over nine months ago, Costa couldn’t make the weight and the fight got changed to a Light Heavyweight bout. Not to say the Brazilian won’t make weight this time around, but at what cost.
Rockhold may have gone through a gauntlet of injuries over his career and while he’s clearly nearing an end road, I believe the former Middleweight Champion has a little left in the tank. Needing to keep range and effectively use his kicks, which could be a major weapon given Costa was nearly stopped by Marvin Vettori via a body kick, Rockhold could very well stun the Brazilian on the feet. However, the best part of Rockhold’s game is his grappling. Neglecting it often, perhaps the losing streak and being knocked out several times has Rockhold thinking otherwise. For prediction sake, I hope so. Knowing that he’s one of the most dangerous fighters on the planet in top control, give me Rockhold to fight to his strength and put a halt to this bout via TKO.
135 lbs.: Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili – We have a pivotal fight in the Bantamweight division, as the former Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo takes on Merab Dvalishvili. Entering this fight on a three-fight win streak, Aldo finds himself closing in on another title shot. With one of the wins coming over Marlon Vera, who just knocked out Dominick Cruz, it’s plausible to believe that a victory here could be all he needs to earn that shot. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili has been on a collision course to a title shot. Rattling off seven straight wins, the Georgian has had little resistance in carving out his spot among the division’s best. With an opportunity to knock off a legend and the third ranked Bantamweight, it would be hard deny Dvalishvili is unworthy of earning a title shot.
In a stacked Bantamweight division, this fight is yet another puzzle piece to figuring out the complete picture. One that I believe Aldo will be apart of, as I have the former Champion winning. At 35 years old and with eighteen years in the game, it’s a testament that Aldo is still competing at the highest level – in a lower weight class no less. The reason I believe Aldo gets it done though, is that while Dvalishvili has been dominate during this stretch, he has fought no one near the level of Aldo. In fact, during this seven-fight winning streak, four of the fighters are no longer in the UFC and arguably one of them in Marlon Moraes, who was regressing, is the Georgian’s best victory to date. In that fight against Moraes too, at one point, Dvalishvili got rocked and was on skates. Against Aldo, who’s takedown defense is among the all-time best, I have a feeling that Dvalishvili won’t be able to assert his wrestling dominance on the former Champion. A strategy in which has led Dvalishvili to glory in seven straight fights.
The other remark I’ll make about why I favor Aldo, is that while Dvalishvili is an excellent wrestler, he isn’t someone who maintains control. Often fighters are able to get back up, but usually are then re-taken down. Something in which I don’t foresee happening to Aldo. Lastly, Dvalishvili clearly brings forth more output than Aldo on the feet and can hold is own. However, Dvalishvili is clearly more vulnerable on the feet and between Aldo’s boxing and power, I expect that to show. With that said, I predict that Aldo will win via TKO.
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135 lbs.: Wu Yanan vs. Lucie Pudilova – We have an intriguing fight in the Women’s Bantamweight division, as Lucie Pudilova takes on Wu Yanan. Returning to the UFC after being cut back in 2020, Pudilova will hope for better fortunes in her second stint. Going 5-1 (with 1 amateur loss too) since being released, with two straight wins, the fire seems to be back in the Czech. Meanwhile, Yanan has had a tough UFC tenure thus far. Going 1-4 in five fights with the promotion, and currently on a three fight losing streak, Yanan urgently needs to win. Otherwise, her time with the UFC is most likely over.
An under the radar fight, expect both strikers to put on a show. While Pudilova looked to be a future talent in the UFC, she hit a wall against tougher competition. With renewed confidence and more experience, perhaps Pudilova has a better stint this time around. However, I’m siding with Yanan in this fight. Obviously Yanan is in a tailspin, but with her back against the wall, I believe she puts forth her best performance to date. Backed by excellent cardio and durability, Yanan is never one to relent over the course of fifteen minutes. With solid volume on the feet and the ability to mix in a takedown, I believe she has what it takes to end this skid. In the end, I expect this fight to be close, but Yanan coming out the victor via decision.
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205 lbs.: Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker – A fight likely not to see the scorecards comes in the Light Heavyweight division, as Tyson Pedro takes on Harry Hunsucker. Coming in as the biggest favorite on the card, Pedro will look to make it 2-0 in 2022. Having successfully returned to the octagon with a first round stoppage victory over Ike Villanueva after an over three year layoff, Pedro enters this fight with a little less rust to shake off. Meanwhile, Hunsucker comes into this fight seeking his first UFC victory. Hoping the third time is the charm, Hunsucker is going to need to find it within him to come out on top. Otherwise, his tenure in the UFC could at an end.
A fight bound to end early, I’m going with Pedro. While no shock, considering his staggering odds, this fight seems as set-up for the Australian to win as his return fight against Ike Villanueva was. The cherry on top in this whole scenario would be if Pedro were to face Chase Sherman next. Nevertheless, and as it pertains to this fight, Hunsucker is a wild card. Having never seen round two, yet alone the four minute mark in round one in twelve professional fights, the American clearly isn’t looking for a long night at the office. Spending only two minutes and forty-three seconds in two fights inside the octagon, as well as absorbing 6.99 significant strikes per minute, Hunsucker simply lacks the durability needed at this level. With that said, I predict that Pedro wins this fight via TKO.
265 lbs.: Marcin Tybura vs. Alexandr Romanov – We have a pivotal fight in the Heavyweight division, as Marcin Tybura takes on Alexandr Romanov. Seeing a five-fight win streak come to an end in a recent defeat to Alexander Volkov, Tybura returns to the octagon looking to bounce back. Ranked eleventh in the Heavyweight division, Tybura is still well positioned to make a run. With a victory, he should find himself among the top ten. Meanwhile, Romanov will look to continue his accession up the Heavyweight division. Undefeated and having stopped four of his five UFC foes, Romanov will finally dip his toes in this ranked matchup.
Despite Romanov being undefeated and the odds indicating he should walk all over Tybura, I’m not as certain that will be the case. Romanov is definitely an exceptional talent, but this is by far his toughest test since joining the UFC in 2020. In fact, Romanov’s five opponents have combined for an 15-24 UFC record. Even worse, the last two opponents in Chase Sherman and Jared Vanderaa are a combined 5-14 in the UFC. Again though, Romanov is very skilled and is bound to be a contender. I just believe that Tybura is a live dog. With excellent takedown defense and evolving wrestling to go along with his already potent striking abilities, Tybura is on paper a tall task for Romanov. A fighter who, while well rounded, has mainly resorted to taking foes down and battering them via ground-and-pound. Considering Tybura hasn’t been taken down in his past eight fights, and has only has succumbed to a takedown in three of his fourteen UFC fights, I’d say Romanov is going to either struggle to get this fight to the mat or wear himself out over the course of the fight doing such. In the end, Romanov may win alone on control time against the cage. However, I’m willing to go on a whim and predict that Tybura wins via decision by creating separation and landing the more impactful strikes throughout the fight.
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155 lbs.: Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon – An exciting battle takes place in the Lightweight division, as Jared Gordon takes on Leonardo Santos. Coming off a submission defeat to Grant Dawson, which halted a three-fight win streak, Gordon will look to rebound. With wins in four of the last six, with one of the losses being to the current Champion Charles Oliveira, Gordon heads into this bout with a chance to re-position himself among the top Lightweights. Meanwhile, Santos returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022. Hoping to end a two-fight losing streak, the Brazilian heads into this fight with his back against the wall. At 42 years old, this fight could decide Santos’ career moving forward.
Once unbeaten in his first eight fights, which spanned over seven years due to injuries, Santos finds himself in a rare losing streak. With father time having caught up, the Brazilian has seen his skills regress. No longer a threat over the course of the fight, Santos has about a round of cardio before running on fumes. Having been stopped in back-to-back fights, it’s become hard to trust the Brazilian. Which is why I’m siding with Gordon. A well rounded fighter, Gordon can be best described as a workhorse. Known for his excellent cardio and heavy pace, Gordon looks to wear down foes over the course of fifteen minutes. Against Santos, Gordon has the upper-hand should this fight go past the opening round. A big if though, and legitimate concern, as Gordon has been stopped twice in his five losses (all via stoppage) in round one. Also, Gordon’s takedown defense is not great. However, I trust Gordon at this stage to survive round one, than Santos have the cardio to fight past a round. With that said, I predict that Gordon will in via TKO.
145 lbs.: Luis Saldana vs. Sean Woodson – We have a scrap in the Featherweight division, as Sean Woodson takes on Luis Saldana. Since dropping his first professional fight back in 2020, Woodson has rattled off two-straight. The most recent fight being impressive, as Woodson took care of Collin Anglin via strikes in round one. The victory would be Woodson’s third inside the octagon. Meanwhile, Saldana comes into this fight off a victory over Bruno Souza. The victory was Saldana’s second in the UFC, and sixth in the last seven.
Bound to be an exciting clash, I’m going to side with the sizable dog in Saldana. While I believe that Woodson is a special talent on the feet, especially considering his output and enormous 6’2 frame at Featherweight, styles make fights. Saldana is mainly a striker, who is dynamic and has made strides in his output and cardio. The strength of Saldana though on the feet, and it’s why I like him in this fight, is his arsenal of leg kicks. Averaging a tick over 18 significant leg strikes a fight, Saldana does an excellent job mixing up the location of his attacks. Against a tall, but skinny framed Woodson, I could see Saldana land some debilitating shots to the body and legs over the course of the fight. Showing some evolution with his wrestling too, perhaps a takedown or two could be in store. All in all, I believe this is a much closer fight than the odds indicate and I believe Saldana has the skills to defeat Woodson via decision.
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125 lbs.: Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young – The spotlight is on the lone Women’s Flyweight fight on the card, as Miranda Maverick takes on Shanna Young in a rematch. Coming off an impressive submission victory over Sabina Mazo, Maverick ended a two-fight skid. Looking to re-ascend in the Flyweight totem, Maverick must first get by a young upstart. Meanwhile, Young comes into this fight off her first UFC victory. An excellent one at that, as Young stopped Gina Mazany via strikes. Previous to the win, Young had dropped two straight.
If anything is certain, the UFC hasn’t done Young any favors since she joined the promotion in 2020. Coming off her first UFC victory, she is tasked with fighting a former top fifteen ranked fighter in Maverick. A fighter whom she clashed with in Invicta FC’s one-night tournament back in 2019. While the fight was deemed an exhibition due to the commission only allowing a strict allotment of rounds for a fighter due to the nature of the tournament, Maverick wound up needing less than a round to put away Young via submission. Obviously this is a great opportunity for Young to get one back and catapult herself up the division. However, given Young, outside of Gina Mazany, has struggled against wrestlers, I can’t see how she is going to keep this fight upright long enough to sway the judges. Especially considering Young has been taken down in all three of her UFC fights, and Maverick has landed eight takedowns at 61% accuracy over the past four fights. With that said, I predict that Maverick will win once again via submission.
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UFC 278 Fight Pass/ESPN/ESPN+ Early Preliminary Card:
170 lbs.: A.J. Fletcher vs. Ange Loosa – We have a intriguing battle in the Welterweight division, as AJ Fletcher takes on Ange Loosa. Coming off his first professional loss in his UFC debut, Fletcher will attempt to rebound in short order. The debut itself wasn’t all that bad though, as Fletcher looked sharp early. However, as the fight waned, Fletcher found himself fighting from his back in the last two rounds. Meanwhile, Loosa too is coming off a defeat in his octagon debut. Competitive, but unable to match opponent Mounir Lazzez’s output, Loosa fell defeat via decision. The loss was Loosa’s third in the past five fights.
The good aspect of this fight, is that someone is likely to capture their first UFC victory. In my opinion, that man will be Loosa. Carrying a seven-inch reach advantage, I believe Loosa will be able to keep range of Fletcher’s heavy hands and good kicks. With excellent output and power at his disposal, as well as an iron chin, Loosa is problematic for anyone on the feet. The only concern is Fletcher’s wrestling, which has proven to be effective against virtually everyone he has faced. However, Loosa too has some wrestling chops and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him being in top control at some point. Backed by solid cardio, I believe Loosa should be fresher man in the later rounds. Which could be key in what I believe will be a competitive fight. With that said, I predict Loosa will win via decision.
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125 lbs.: Amir Albazi vs. Francisco Figueiredo – We have a showdown in the Flyweight division, as Amir Albazi takes on Francisco Figueiredo. Returning to the octagon after an eighteen month layoff, Albazi will look to build off a three-fight win streak. Still ranked eleventh, with a victory, Albazi could very well find himself inside the top ten. Meanwhile, Figueiredo comes into this fight off an impressive kneebar submission over Daniel da Silva. The victory was his second inside the octagon, and first via stoppage. With an opportunity against a ranked opponent, Figueiredo would join his brother among the top fifteen in the division.
As impressive as Figueiredo was in his recent fight, I’m not yet on board with the Brazilian. While his grappling and submission abilities are excellent, his striking and cardio are less to be desired. Against a well rounded fighter, who is solid on the mat too, I don’t believe Figueiredo can strike lightning in this match-up. Instead, I expect Albazi to thwart off Figueiredo’s would-be attempts to get this fight to the ground. In doing such, a tired Figueiredo will be more susceptible to getting tagged and eventually finished. With that said, I predict Albazi to make a triumphant return to the octagon, winning via TKO.
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135 lbs.: Aoriqileng vs. Jay Perrin – We have an exciting scrap in the Bantamweight division, as Aoriqileng takes on Jay Perrin. Coming off a sensational performance over Cameron Else, in which snapped a two-fight skid, Aoriqileng looks to make it two straight. Returning to Bantamweight, a division in which he is 13-6 in, Aoriqileng has an opportunity to generate some buzz with another victory. Meanwhile, Perrin returns to the octagon after an unsuccessful UFC debut. Admirable in the fight, especially considering he jumped in on short notice, we should see the best version of Perrin on Saturday.
Despite the odds leaning towards Aoriqileng, I’m going with the underdog in Perrin. As impressive as Aoriqileng looked in his recent victory, he’s had issues with wrestlers. In the defeat against Cody Durden, Aoriqileng was taken down five times and controlled for over five and a half minutes. Perrin, a wrestler with solid cardio, will look to follow that blueprint. Having a full training camp this time around too, I expect Perrin to be fresh throughout the fight. While Aoriqileng certainly has the edge on the feet, Perrin’s takedowns and feints will force Aoriqileng to drop his hands and allow the American to land some clean shots on the feet. I don’t foresee anything impactful, but useful shots to sway the judges. In what could be a close fight, give me Perrin’s wrestling to help him score UFC victory number one via decision.
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125 lbs.: Victor Altamirano vs. Daniel da Silva – The curtain jerker comes in the Flyweight division, as Victor Altamirano takes on Daniel da Silva. Coming off an unsuccessful UFC debut, Altamirano will look for better results in his second appearance. A former LFA Champion, Altamirano had won four straight prior to the defeat. Meanwhile, da Silva will hope that the third time’s the charm. Losing back-to-back UFC fights, both of which came inside the distance, da Silva has had a rough time finding his footing inside the octagon. With another opportunity to prove he belongs, da Silva needs to find a way to score a victory.
When da Silva first touched down in the UFC, I was pretty hyped for him. Between his karate based arsenal, which included spinning and flying attacks and his dangerous guard, there was a buzz about the Brazilian. However, that buzz, has died down. With two straight defeats, both coming via stoppage within two rounds, it’s hard to trust a fighter who’s less impactful as the fight wanes. Which leads me to siding with Altamirano. A well rounded fighter, who has fought tough competition throughout his career, Altamirano is the more trustworthy of the two. Also, the Mexican has excellent cardio and should the fight go deep, he has a clear edge. With that said, I predict Altamirano to win via submission.
The main event comes in the Welterweight division, as Champion Kamaru Usman looks to successfully defend his title for the sixth time against challenger Leon Edwards. A winner of nineteen straight, with fifteen coming inside the octagon, Usman has established himself as arguably the pound-for-pound king in mixed martial arts. Having taken out several formidable challengers, including Colby Covington twice, Usman is closing in on records and legacy status of being denoted as the greatest of all-time. Meanwhile, Edwards comes into this fight unbeaten in his last ten fights. The last loss Edwards suffered was against no other than Usman, when they first encountered each other back in 2015. Evolving since then into an elite Welterweight, Edwards has gone above and beyond to garner this well earned title shot.
Excited to see how this chess match plays out, I’m siding with Usman. Having been a believer in the Nigerian Nightmare since early in his career, I was certain he would become a Champion. While I did notably pick against the welterweight kingpin against Tyron Woodley and in the first Colby Covington fight, Usman clearly has even exceeded my expectations. A well rounded fighter, who’s wrestling can only be matched by Covington, Usman has more or less elected to strike lately. With a lightning quick jab, precision and power, Usman has turned himself into one of the most feared strikers. In other words, he’s the complete package. As of Edwards, he too is well rounded. Boasting a technical striking game, which is built off precision, Edwards looks to piece up opponents on the feet. An opportune wrestler too, Edwards has landed a takedown in eight of his last ten fights – with one of the fights he didn’t land a takedown being in a shortened fight due to an accidental eye poke against Belal Muhammad.
As for why I have Usman winning, he is simply better everywhere. With exceptional wrestling and having never been taken down, Usman neutralizes a part of Edwards game. On the feet, Usman carries more power, is more active and his jab alone can cause havoc. Obviously a nightmare matchup for anyone, it’s hard to see a challenger other than Colby Covington that can defeat Usman. That’s no knock on Edwards, who is exceptionally talent, but the reality of the situation in my opinion. With that said, I believe Usman will eventually find the mark at some point in the fight and finish Edwards via TKO.
The co-main of the event comes in the Middleweight division, as Paulo Costa takes on the former Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold. After back-to-back losses, and Dana White stating that Costa would never fight at Middleweight again due to weight cutting issues, somehow the former title challenger will be given yet another crack. With an opportunity to prove he can make the weight, Costa will also have a chance to knock off a former Champion and re-position himself at 185 pounds. Meanwhile, Rockhold returns to the octagon after a three-year hiatus. Having mulled retirement and battled injuries during this time away, Rockhold will look to shed the rust and re-emerge his presence in this division. At 37 years old and with back-to-back stoppage defeats, this may be Rockhold’s final dance.
A fight bound to end inside the distance. Costa is the smarter play. Boasting high output, power, pressure, durability and accuracy, there is little reason not to side with the Brazilian. However, I am. Obviously between Rockhold’s lengthy layoff and durability concerns, there are certainly red flags to be cautious about. Yet, I can’t help but to wonder how much Costa is draining himself to get down to Middleweight. I mean, a little over nine months ago, Costa couldn’t make the weight and the fight got changed to a Light Heavyweight bout. Not to say the Brazilian won’t make weight this time around, but at what cost.
Rockhold may have gone through a gauntlet of injuries over his career and while he’s clearly nearing an end road, I believe the former Middleweight Champion has a little left in the tank. Needing to keep range and effectively use his kicks, which could be a major weapon given Costa was nearly stopped by Marvin Vettori via a body kick, Rockhold could very well stun the Brazilian on the feet. However, the best part of Rockhold’s game is his grappling. Neglecting it often, perhaps the losing streak and being knocked out several times has Rockhold thinking otherwise. For prediction sake, I hope so. Knowing that he’s one of the most dangerous fighters on the planet in top control, give me Rockhold to fight to his strength and put a halt to this bout via TKO.
We have a pivotal fight in the Bantamweight division, as the former Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo takes on Merab Dvalishvili. Entering this fight on a three-fight win streak, Aldo finds himself closing in on another title shot. With one of the wins coming over Marlon Vera, who just knocked out Dominick Cruz, it’s plausible to believe that a victory here could be all he needs to earn that shot. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili has been on a collision course to a title shot. Rattling off seven straight wins, the Georgian has had little resistance in carving out his spot among the division’s best. With an opportunity to knock off a legend and the third ranked Bantamweight, it would be hard deny Dvalishvili is unworthy of earning a title shot.
In a stacked Bantamweight division, this fight is yet another puzzle piece to figuring out the complete picture. One that I believe Aldo will be apart of, as I have the former Champion winning. At 35 years old and with eighteen years in the game, it’s a testament that Aldo is still competing at the highest level – in a lower weight class no less. The reason I believe Aldo gets it done though, is that while Dvalishvili has been dominate during this stretch, he has fought no one near the level of Aldo. In fact, during this seven-fight winning streak, four of the fighters are no longer in the UFC and arguably one of them in Marlon Moraes, who was regressing, is the Georgian’s best victory to date. In that fight against Moraes too, at one point, Dvalishvili got rocked and was on skates. Against Aldo, who’s takedown defense is among the all-time best, I have a feeling that Dvalishvili won’t be able to assert his wrestling dominance on the former Champion. A strategy in which has led Dvalishvili to glory in seven straight fights.
The other remark I’ll make about why I favor Aldo, is that while Dvalishvili is an excellent wrestler, he isn’t someone who maintains control. Often fighters are able to get back up, but usually are then re-taken down. Something in which I don’t foresee happening to Aldo. Lastly, Dvalishvili clearly brings forth more output than Aldo on the feet and can hold is own. However, Dvalishvili is clearly more vulnerable on the feet and between Aldo’s boxing and power, I expect that to show. With that said, I predict that Aldo will win via TKO.
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