The MMA Daily

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UFC 271 PPV Main Card on ESPN+ (10 p.m. ET):

185 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker – This is an excellent rematch and one that Robert Whittaker has especially earned. Having rattled off three wins over Middleweight contenders, Whittaker will get a second chance to make things right and reclaim his belt. Meanwhile, Israel Adesanya has shown few holes in his reign over the Middleweight division. While many might point to his lost to Jan Blachowicz at Light Heavyweight, the answer is there in itself. Blachowicz is a Light Heavyweight, clearly had the size and strength advantage and used it to take Adesanya down and control him.

Perhaps a wrestler in the Middleweight division can replicate such, but I’m not entirely sure. However, Whittaker can wrestle and has elected to implement it into his last few wins. In fact, Whittaker has landed 6 takedowns over his last three fights, which is 2 more than he has in his previous 14 fights. I though am not sure Whittaker can be as effective as he was against Darren Till and Kelvin Gastelum. Two guys who have been vulnerable to being taken down. I guess where I’m going with this is if Whittaker can’t wrestle Adesanya, I don’t see him out-striking the Champion. Adesanya is just too dynamic and patient on the feet to be outdueled in the striking department. So with that said, I predict that Adesanya will retain his title via late TKO.

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265 lbs.: Derek Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa – Is there any reason to believe this fight doesn’t end inside the distance? In a combined 39 wins, they have won 34 inside the distance. In a combined 11 losses, 8 have come inside the distance. If there is a planet where this fight goes three rounds, it isn’t earth. Unless that is, MMA once again surprises me. As for the fight, I’m going to go with Derrick Lewis. While he can tire and perhaps sometimes uses his exhaustion as a ploy, he’s got strength, wrestling and a surprisingly athletic head kick in his arsenal. So with that said, Lewis wins via KO.

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185 lbs.: Derek Brunson vs. Jared Cannonier – This is an excellent fight and one that will decide the number one contender in the Middleweight division. As far as the fight, this comes down to if Jared Cannonier can fend off Derek Brunson’s takedowns or get up if taken down. If he can do either, than this is his fight to win. Besides some power, Brunson isn’t much of a striker these days. He’s a wrestler, and a damn good one at that. The only problem is, all that energy expended wrestling, has caused Brunson to fade the later the fight goes. Thus becoming exhausted and prime to get dropped and finished. Exactly what I believe will happen in this fight. So with that said, I predict that Cannonier wins via late TKO.

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155 lbs.: Alexander Hernandez vs. Renato Moicano – This fight has so many red flags. For one, Moicano of late has been both bad and good. It could be due to the fact that he is fighting at Lightweight now or just a durability issue, which quite frankly, seems more probable. Meanwhile, Alexander Hernandez has the wrestling and power to make noise at Lightweight. What he doesn’t have, sustainable three round cardio. It’s cost him in several fights and could in this one. While I do have to make a prediction, it’s Moicano who I’m siding with to win via late submission.

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155 lbs.: Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast – This should be an entertaining fight, but one that Bobby Green should win? I only question that because there is little doubt about his abilities, it’s due to the fact that he’s been in many close fights. Perhaps, some results being controversial, but nevertheless, close fights. However, with a wrestling background, excellent boxing, an iron chin and top notch output, Green can be a handful. Especially for Nasrat Haqparast, who had issues with Dan Hooker’s wrestling and grappling. While Green is more adept to strike with Haqparast, eventually he will mix in takedowns. Once he see’s the success in that department, I expect him to go to the well. So with that said, I predict that Green will win via decision.

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UFC 271 ‘Prelims’ Card on ESPN/ESPN+ (8 p.m. ET):

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265 lbs.: Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa – Outside volume, Jared Vanderaa doesn’t carry many advantages over Andrei Arlovski in this fight. In fact, unless Arlovski fades like he did in his last fight, he should have this one in the bag. Especially if Arlovski breaks out his wrestling abilities. Vanderaa notably has no takedown defense, being taken down eight times in ten attempts. Arlovski is a smart man though, and I’d assume his coaches have zeroed in this vulnerability. So with that said, I predict that Arlovski will win via decision.

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125 lbs.: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Casey O’Neill – This is the end of the road for a pioneer of woman’s mixed martial arts, as Roxanne Modafferi is set to retire following the fight. With twenty-five victories and several huge upsets, Modafferi will look to muster up one more upset. However, I don’t see that happening. Casey O’Neill, while still relatively inexperienced, looks to be a future contender. While her grappling plays into Madafferi’s strength, I believe O’Neill being the young and spryer of the two, will make the difference in who wins the scrambles. O’Neill is also more active, a better striker and more dangerous than Modaferri, which gives her several advantages. The one thing I will say, I don’t think O’Neill will put away Modafferi. The pioneer hasn’t been finished since 2011 and I believe that streak continues. So with all that said, I predict that O’Neill wins via decision.

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135 lbs.: Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo – This should be a good fight, but it’s Kyler Phillips who I believe wins. While Marcelo Rojo is a gritty fighter, he isn’t as well rounded as Phillips. Having been stopped in five of his seven losses, Rojo’s durability is also questionable. The one thing I will say, if Kyler Phillips decides to show off his flashy striking, he opens himself up to being defeated. However, if Phillips mixes in his wrestling, he should be able to win this fight rather dominantly. So with that said, I predict that Phillips wins via late TKO.

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205 lbs.: Fabio Cherant vs. Carlos Ulberg – Despite having only four professional fights and being relatively green, I significantly favor Carlos Ulberg in this fight. While his debut resulted in a loss, before Ulberg got tired, he landed 149 significant strikes in less than three rounds. Considering Fabio Cherant has been knocked out twice in only a combined 17 significant strikes, i’d say, he’s in trouble. So with that said, I predict that Ulberg will win via knockout.

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UFC 271 Early ‘Prelims’ Card on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET):

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135 lbs.: Ronnie Lawrence vs. Mana Martinez – I had high hopes for Mana Martinez in his debut, but he fell flat despite winning. The culprit for that could have been due to the heavy heart he carried into the octagon due to his head coach passing away before the fight. This second time around, perhaps Martinez returns to form. However, I’m not liking this matchup for him. Ronnie Lawrence is a takedown machine with seemingly endless cardio. While his striking needs work, it will come along in the gym. For now, his wrestling and cardio is enough to get him past this fight. So with that said, I predict Lawrence win via late TKO.

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185 lbs.: AJ Dobson vs. Jacob Malkoun – This fight has two scenario’s. Either AJ Dobson’s power stifles Jacob Malkoun or the Aussie controls the fight for fifteen minutes with his relentless takedowns. In these instances, I tend to lean with the wrestler. Especially considering Malkoun recently defeated a power puncher in Abdul Razak Alhassan. So with that said, I predict Jacob Malkoun wins via decision.

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135 lbs.: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Sergey Morozov – In a stacked Bantamweight division, it’s important to build winning streaks and stand out. A single loss, significantly sets you back. Douglas Silva de Andrade has yet to find his footing in the UFC, but his most recent fight, was a step in the right direction. Needing only 124 seconds, de Andrade landed a left hook that put down his opponent Gaetano Pirrello. The victory was the Brazilian’s twenty-sixth as a professional and first since 2019. Meanwhile, Sergey Morozov comes into this fight off his first UFC victory. While his debut went sour, the second time around, Morozov was able to implement his game on Khalid Taha. Relentless with his takedowns, Morozov was able to land six and nearly nine minutes of cage control.

As for a prediction, I have de Andrade winning by the slightest of margins. I expect Morozov to consistently shoot for takedowns throughout the fight, but de Andrade has shown to have good takedown defense. Only Petr Yan and Zubaira Tukhugov were able to take down the Brazilian three times. Other than that, he has been taken down a combined five times in his other seven fights. Physically strong and packing a punch, I believe de Andrade will shut down the majority of Morozov’s takedowns and land the more impactful blows on the feet. Ultimately winning the fight via decision.

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170 lbs.: Mike Mathetha vs. Jeremiah Wells – The curtain jerker comes in the Welterweight division, as Jeremiah Wells takes on promotional newcomer Blood Diamond. Coming into this fight off a successful UFC debut and a winner of six of his last seven, Wells will look to keep the momentum going. With a knack for finishing fights, Wells is one to keep an eye on when he steps inside the octagon. Meanwhile, Blood Diamond comes his UFC debut on short notice. A kickboxer, Diamond has successfully transitioned to mixed martial arts, winning all three of his fights.

This should be an entertaining fight, but one that Wells wins. While I do recognize Diamond’s kickboxing abilities and the fact that he trains with UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya, he is still inexperienced in mixed martial arts. Even if his striking is better than Wells, the ground game, is going to eat him alive. And given Wells happens to have grappling chops, training at Renzo Gracie Philly, the route to victory is clear as day. So with that said, I predict that Wells will win via submission.

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265 lbs.: Maxim Grishin vs. William Knight – A longtime regional stalwart, Maxim Grishin will make his fourth UFC appearance. While the results haven’t shown what the Russian striker is capable of, perhaps this is the fight Grishin breaks out. William Knight seems to be leveling out as a low output power striker with some wrestling chops and sheer strength. Nothing wrong with that, but he’s shown a hesitancy to let his hands go, which is not ideal if you’re relying on a knockout. Against my better judgement though, I’m going to side with Knight. Hoping that he mixes in his wrestling each round, I believe he can pull out a close decision victory.