UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs. Muhammad DraftKings Spreadsheet
Pat Sabatini ($9,200) – A perfect 3-0, Sabatini heads into a matchup against a fellow grappler who is 0-1 in the UFC. Averaging 92.7 points per fight, Sabatini is one of the few reliable fighters on a card that seemingly has chaos written all over it.
Martin Buday ($9,000) – Despite this being Buday’s debut, he is one of the better plays at this range, A winner of eight straight, all of which have come via stoppage, Buday brings a finishing instinct. The one thing I’ll note, he’s slow and isn’t one to tally up strikes.
Miguel Baeza ($8,700) – Despite a two-fight skid, Baeza is one of the safer plays on the card. Averaging 100.06 in wins, Baeza is just one of five fighters on the slate that eclipse 100 points. While Fialho has proven to be tough, Baeza has the output and cardio to win this fight.
Vicente Luque ($8,500) – In a chaotic card, in which I can see underdogs reigning supreme, Luque is my favorite play on the slate. Averaging a card’s best 93.1 points and 105.42 in wins, Luque may just be better than the ten fighters priced higher than him. The 10-1 record in the last eleven fights would back me up on that notion.
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev ($8,400) – Undefeated and a solid wrestler, Omargadzhiev should draw the attention of many in this spot. While Caio Borralho is a tough foe and has the BJJ to give Omargadzhiev fits, the Russian has yet to be submitted or look worried while in top control. At this price, Omargadzhiev is a nice play.
7k and Below Range:
Jordan Leavitt ($7,900) – Believe or not, Leavitt is averaging the third most points on the slate at 87.9. The reason being, in Leavitt’s only defeat, he scored 57 points. Which is the most on the card. Given his grappling heavy approach and submission prowess, he’s an excellent play at this price. Especially when you consider that Ogden is making his UFC debut and has lost three of his four losses via submission.
Belal Muhammad ($7,700) – While I believe Luque is the best play on the card, Muhammad is an excellent play if you believe he can win. A high output striker, with a grinding wrestling style, Muhammad is one of the best and underrated Welterweight’s on the planet. Not counting a no contest to Leon Edwards, Muhammad has won six straight and ten of the last eleven fights. With a winning pedigree and priced at 7.7k, Muhammad is a great play – even if he falters.
William Knight ($7,600) – This price tag took me for a surprise. Not because Knight screams “must play”, but because he’s fighting Devin Clark. A fighter who has fought as low as Middleweight and has always been a smaller Light Heavyweight. The fact that he’s going up to Heavyweight doesn’t spell well in my eyes. Throw in the fact that Clark has been finished in five of his six defeats and I would take Knight at this discounted price all day.
Wu Yanan ($6,900) – Not a play I’ll be taking, but Yanan has shown an ability to rack up strikes. If she could pair an extra thirty points to the total in victory, at this price, you can’t go wrong. Throw in the fact that’s she’s facing Mayra Bueno Silva, who has excellent grappling, but prefers to stand-and-strike, and a window of opportunity exists.
Mounir Lazzez ($8,800) – I don’t think this is particularly a great play, but Lazzez is a solid striker who is facing a debuting Ange Loosa. A fighter who fought two weeks ago and has to make a second weight cut.
Rafa Garcia ($8,200) – While his fight against Jesse Ronson is a toss-up, Garcia is a wrestler who doesn’t shy away from spamming takedowns. Averaging 45.4 in losses, Garcia is the second best on the slate in that regard. Obviously not something you care for at this price tag, but a dose of what Garcia is capable should he add an extra 30 points to in victory.
Chris Barnett ($7,200) – With Heavyweight fights, anything can happen with one punch. At 7.2k, the unassumingly athletic Barnett isn’t a bad play. Especially when you factor his debuting counterpart is a slow and ploddy fighter.