UFC Vegas 52: Lemos vs. Andrade DraftKings Spreadsheet

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Best Plays

9k Range:

Alexandr Romanov ($9,600) – A perfect 15-0, with four wins coming in the UFC, Romanov is the highest salaried fighter on the card. For good reason however, as Romanov, with the exception of the Juan Espino fight, has been running through everyone. This Sherman fight should be no different, as the “Vanilla Gorilla” has lost three straight against fighters in the bottom of the division. Throw in the fact that this is his third stint in the UFC, and Romanov is a no brainer regardless of the price.

Dean Barry ($9,500) – There is risk in this pick, but realistically, Barry should be of value in this spot. I mean, I’m not in love with his experience and the fact that his last opponent was 6-30, but in the end, he’s fighting a Journalist/Fighter in Mike Jackson. An opponent who fought Mickey Gall and C.M. Punk, has been out of action for nearly four years and technically has zero professional wins. Again, this is a salty fight, but one that Barry should win.

Tyson Pedro ($9,300) – Another risky pick, especially considering the over three year layoff, but Pedro should be fine here. Again, it has more to do with opponent, as Villanueva just isn’t UFC caliber. Having lost thirteen fights, twelve via stoppage, there is very little hope in thinking Villanueva has a chance here. So with that said, Pedro should realistically run through Villanueva here.

8k Range:

Jessica Andrade ($8,900) – Averaging a card’s best 124.35 points in victory, Andrade may be the best combination of price and value on the slate. Even her high of 146.7 in victory is thirteen points higher than Romanov, the highest salaried fighter on the card. Of course her opponent is tougher, but Andrade has largely only lost to former or current champions.

Marc-Andre Barriault ($8,600) – This isn’t my favorite play, as Barriault is returning to the octagon less than three months since being knocked out. To me, that’s awfully soon. Had this not been a factor, I’d be all over Barriault in this spot. Especially considering he is fighting Jordan Wright, a fighter who’s fight end within two rounds. The numbers however, back up Barriault, as he’s averaging 106.05 in victory. With a high of 132 points.

Clay Guida ($8,200) – I’m personally not on Guida this fight, but the cardio king gives his best effort each fight. Averaging 92.52 in victory, and a game that revolves on wrestling, Guida isn’t a bad play 8.2k. The only worry with Guida, is that has been vulnerable to being submitted. In fact, ten of his twenty-one losses have come via submission.

7k and Below Range:

Lando Vannata ($7,700) – Although Vannata has a salty record, and his point total isn’t all there, at this price, he’s well worth it. In fact, when Vannata isn’t taken down, he’s 3-1. Considering Jourdain is a striker, who has landed zero takedowns thus far, I’d say we are in for the best version of Vannata. A high activity dynamic striker, who can and I believe will wrestle in this fight.

Amanda Lemos ($7,300) – If you are on the side of Lemos, you’re hoping for a quick stoppage victory. Something which she has done in three of her last five fights. With an average of 91.3 points, Lemos is the second to Alexandr Romanov in that regard. While Andrade is the toughest foe she has faced, you could do worst than banking on Lemos at this price.

Montana De La Rosa ($7,200) – One of my favorite plays in the 7k range, De La Rosa has shown an ability to rack up points win or lose. Always giving her best effort, De La Rosa is averaging 77.6 points. Good enough for the third most on the slate. While she hasn’t consistently won, in defeat, she is averaging 41.8 points. Something which comes in handy if the dogs aren’t barking on a card.

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Value Plays

Aoriqileng ($9.100) – Not exactly screaming value, but with some big guns accumulating the majority of the ownership at the top of the slate, Aoriqileng could be a nice pivot. Especially when you consider that his oponnent, Cameron Else lacks durability.

Claudio Puelles ($8,000) – While he may not be the most exciting fighter, Puelles has shown that he won’t be stopped in getting the fight to the mat. Landing a takedown in all five fights, and twelve total, Puelles can be counted on to rack up points. Throw in the fact that he’s won seven of his eleven fights via submission and Guida’s woes against grapplers with submission abilities, and I think Puelles at 8k is a nice play.

Jordan Wright ($7,600) – If there is one thing about Wright, it’s that the judges can take a break when he fights. Having never gone to the scorecards, and only twice to round two, Wright is a kill or be killed fighter. Given his opponent is coming off a knockout defeat less than three months ago, I see worse plays than a guy who could potentially rack up over 100 points at this range.