UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje DraftKings Spreadsheet

Best Plays

9k Range:

Andre Fiahlo ($9,500) – Despite the high price tag, I believe Fialho is worth it. Having competitively fought Michel Pereira in his debut to starching Miguel Baeza in his second appearance, Fialho looks to be a dangerous Welterweight. Returning to the octagon less than a month since defeating Baeza, Fialho welcomes a debuting Cameron VanCamp. A fighter who lost to a 40-year old Bobby Voelker three years ago. With thirteen of Fialho’s fifteen wins coming via stoppage, I expect some big points from the Portugal native.

Brandon Royval ($9,300) – At this price, there is certainly a risk in playing Royval. However the reward, especially against an opponent like Schnell, could be massive. Averaging 88.1 points in victory, with a high of 108.1, Royval doesn’t exactly gleam as a must play. Yet, I argue that his eleven finishes in thirteen victories combined with Schnell’s four stoppage defeats is a recipe for a big night for “Raw Dawg”.

Lupita Godinez ($9,000) – Not a play I thought I’d be eyeballing. However, Godinez’s game is geared towards racking up fantasy points. Averaging 106.5 in victory, which is the third most on the slate, Godinez could be a fighter that makes the optimal lineup. While her opponent in Ariane Carnelossi is tough, she is vulnerable to being taken down – something in Godinez will certainly try to capitalize on.

8k Range:

Rose Namajunas ($8,900) – I understand the wrestling threat that Carla Esparza brings to this fight, but Namajunas has never been one to be held on her back. With excellent grappling abilities to go along with the division’s best striking, Namajunas is the complete package. At a price tag of 8.9k, in a five round fight, Namajunas is always worth a play.

Charles Oliveira ($8,500) – Although Oliveira hasn’t put up super high numbers, the price mixed in with his absurd ten-fight winning streak makes him a great play. A threat wherever the fight is, Oliveira has won 29 of his 32 victories via stoppage. Averaging 94.55 in victory with a high of 109.3, Oliveira sports a good floor at this range.

Khaos Williams ($8,300) – A brawler with immense power, Williams isn’t one to look for the scorecards to decide his fate. Averaging the third most career fantasy points on the slate, with an average of 102.2 in victory, Williams is someone you can bank on to fight for your money. The only concern, which is why I may stay away from this one, is his takedown defense. Something which I expect to be tested by Randy Brown.

7k and Below Range:

Justin Gaethje ($7,700) – As much as I like Charles Oliveira’s price, I believe Gethje is worth it in this spot too. It really just depends on who you like in this main event. However, Gaethje is animal who brings forth high activity and knockout power. Having stopped 20 opponents (19 via T/KO) in 23 victories, Gaethje is someone who rather keep the judges out of it. Averaging 104.31 in victory and even 36.5 in defeat, Gaethje is totally worth a play.

Melissa Gatto ($7,500) – Despite winning her most recent fight on the feet, Gatto isn’t exactly a world beater in the striking department. She is however better than Tracy Cortez. Then again, Cortez isn’t expected to strike. She’s a wrestler who will test her top control and submission defense against Gatto’s grappling. A area in which has led to four of her eights win coming by submission. With an average of 99.1 in victory and a high of 116.1, I expect Gatto to be a popular play.

Arianne Carnelossi ($7,200) – While I mentioned Lupita Godinez as a play at 9k, I don’t think Carnelossi is an afterthought at this price. As a high output striker, with good offensive wrestling and physical strength, Carnelossi has established herself as a finisher. Averaging 108.9 in victory, which is the second highest on the slate, you could do worse than Carnelossi.

Macy Chiasson ($7,100) – Not a play I’ll be dabbling with, but the numbers are highlighting that she is a good play. Averaging 101.52 in victory, with four of her five victories eclipsing 100 points, Chiasson offers immense value at this price.

Tony Ferguson ($6,600) – It’s one thing to see Chase Sherman as the least expensive fighter on the slate, let alone Ferguson. A guy who literally won twelve straight and eighteen of his last nineteen before dropping three straight. Two of which came to the two men headlining the event. With the other to Beniel Dariush, the 4th ranked Lightweight. Averaging 97.6 in victory and with a matchup against Michael Chandler, who’s been clipped and finished four times, I’d not count El Cucuy out.


Value Plays

Ovince St. Preux ($9,200) – This is a steep price for OSP, who is certainly a shell of his former self. However, he’s facing Mauricio Rua. A 40-year old legend who has lost more than a step over the years. Slower and more hittable, I believe OSP being the better athlete should find a way to get this one done via stoppage

Donald Cerrone ($8,800) – I find this hard to touch, especially considering Cerrone’s current 0-6-1 in the last seven fights. However, against another older veteran, perhaps he can hold up durability-wise. If so, Cerrone averages 108.13 in victory. Good for the third most on the card.

Blagoy Ivanov ($8,400) – Having never been knocked out, facing several heavy hitters, Ivanov could be a massive play against Marcos Rogerio de Lima. A notable one-round fighter, who has been stopped in six of his seven losses. At 8.4k, I really like Ivanov’s chances to survive any initial storm and finish de Lima.

Randy Brown ($7,900) – A winner of four of the last five, Brown is starting to turn himself into a formidable threat in the Welterweight division. While Khaos Williams is a dangerous opponent, if fought smart, Brown has the wrestling and grappling to potentially neutralize the knockout artist. With an average of 87.8 in victory, Brown hasn’t been too reliable. However, take downs and top control can be a world’s of difference regarding points should he go down that road.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($7,600) – In nineteen victories, de Lima has stopped sixteen opponents. Of those sixteen, thirteen have come in round one. Averaging 106.48 in victory with a high of 129.7, de Lima can be a worthwhile bet. However, if the fight gets outside of round one, de Lima most likely will be gassed.

Carla Esparza ($7,300) – One of the very best Strawweight ever, Esparza has an opportunity to reclaim her title. With an excellent wrestling background, Esparza is the all-time leader in the Strawweight division in takedowns landed with 42 and top control time at 54:54. No secret as to what her gameplan is, Esparza can be a solid play if you believe she can take Rose Namajunas down and maintain top control. Averaging 94.01 in victory and with a high of 137.5, there is a lot of upside in Esparza.

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