UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs. Vieira DraftKings Spreadsheet

Best Plays

9k Range

Jailton Almeida ($9,400) – Despite moving up in weight for this fight, Almeida is priced as the highest salaried fighter. Rightfully so, as the Brazilian is a pure finisher with an elite ground game. Sporting a 100% finishing rate, Almeida has won all fifteen of his victories within the first two rounds. With 10 straight wins, and experience fighting at Heavyweight, Almeida is a good bet to get the job done early.

Holly Holm ($9,100) – There is some caution in picking Holm. After all, she is averaging 94.22 in victory. A fine number, but not exactly one you’d be too pleased about at this price. However, in Holm’s most recent fight, which was 19 month’s ago, Holm scored 132.7 points. Arguably it was Holm’s best performance and a repeatable one, as she once again will be involved in another five-round fight.

8k Range

Chidi Njoukani ($8,900) – I can’t promise that Njoukani will one up the 16-second knockout victory in his UFC debut, but with his striking prowess, anything is possible. With thirteen of his twenty-one wins coming via knockout, eight of which came in round one, Njoukani may be a strong play against an aggressive striker in Dusko Todorovic

Tabatha Ricci ($8,300) – With a Judo, BJJ and Muay-Thai background, Ricci brings a versatile skillset to the octagon. Upon watching her though, it’s evident that she is a talented grappler, but needs work on the feet. Scoring 99.9 points in her most recent fight, Ricci used a blend of strikes (62), takedowns (5) and control time (6:38) to score a decision victory. As long as she can avoid Polyana Viana’s submission attempts, I wouldn’t count out a very similar outcome.

Michel Pereira ($8,200) – When Pereira first entered the octagon, he was a wild fighter. Expending all his energy within the first round, Pereira found out the hard-way that to succeed at this level, you need to fight smarter. After a 1-2 start, with one of losses coming via DQ, Pereira has strung together four straight wins. Averaging 84.38 in victory, Pereira isn’t exactly a must play. However at this cost and given the opponent, I believe he could definitely score over that mark.

Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8,000) – Although I just made the case to play Michel Pereira, Ponzinibbio is a fine play if you’re on this side of the fence. Known for his cardio and striking output, Ponzinibbio is someone you can count on in most instances. With eight victories and seven knockdowns scored in the last ten fights, Ponzinibbio can be a guy to finish fights inside the distance. However, without wrestling, should Ponzinibbio not score a knockdown or knockout, the point total could be low.

7k and Under Range

Polyana Viana ($7,900) – Not a play I’d be too invested in. However, you can’t deny that in victory, Viana is averaging 103.83 points. That’s the fifth most on the card. With excellent submission abilities, you can never count out Viana in a fight.

Dusko Todorovic ($7,500) – When Todorovic arrived in the UFC, he came with excellent momentum and potential. While the potential remains, he’s certainly been met with resistance thus far in the UFC. Lacking a strong wrestling game, Todorovic has found out that the upper-tier strikers can be difficult to implement his aggressive style on. However, let’s not discount the fact that Todorovic has a TKO win over Michel Pereira on the regional scene and is averaging 119.7 points in victory in the UFC. Two pretty solid things.

Eryk Anders ($7,200) – If anything is certain, Anders is a like a box of chocolate, you never know what you’re going to get. The best version of Anders is the athletic linebacker that hailed from the Alabama Crimson Tide, who bestows his explosion, wrestling and power on opponents. The worst version of Anders is the guy who throws single shots, lacking the necessary volume to beat high activity strikers like Elias Theodorou. With a high of 105.1 in victory and a low of 55.1, Anders is always a risky pick. At this price though, he’s not the worst guy to take a shot on.

Ketlen Vieira ($7,100) – Having recently fought in a five-round main event, Vieira should in essence, be ready to go a hard twenty-five minutes. Averaging 81.71 in victory, with a high of 88.1, Vieira may not be a bad play at this price. Just don’t go expecting her to put up anything remotely high in points.

Parker Porter ($6,800) – Not only does the lowest salaried fighter on the slate carry a three-fight win streak into a bout, but a significant weight advantage too. Averaging 94.53 in victory, with a high of 106, you could do worse that Porter at this price tag. Obviously Jailton Almeida is an exceptional talent, but many people including me thought Nick Maximov was going to have his way against Andre Petroski. That however, was not the case.

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Fades

Jonathan Martinez ($8,900) – While I believe Martinez is going to win, statistically, he hasn’t been someone you can bank on. Averaging 74 points in victory, which is the third lowest on the slate, Martinez has more often than not, put up stinkers. Only once in his six UFC wins has he scored more than 76 points, which was when he put up 114.8 on Frankie Saenz. At this price, he’s not someone I’d put stake into.

Elise Reed ($8,600) – In what I anticipate to be a back-and-forth fight, I’m not one who is boarding the Reed train. Even if she wins, there just doesn’t seem like there is an avenue for a high point total. At 8.6k, I’m looking for someone who can put upwards of 90 or more points. Something which I don’t think is plausible for Reed without a finish. Seeing that she only has two finishes over lower level competition, I wouldn’t bank on one against Sam Hughes.