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Holly Holm (-250) vs. Ketlen Vieira (+200)

Best Bet
Holly Holm (-250)
While I do think Holm via decision is the play, there is an inkling of me that also believes that Holm could score a fifth round finish. That’s not due to Holm having power, more than the strike accumulation combined with Vieira being exhausted. However, the safe play is to take Holm straight up. Understanding that the odds may be a tad high on a 40-year, who’s been out of action since October of 2020, I do believe that she should fairly easily win this fight. That’s no disrespect to Vieira, who’s built up a successful 6-2 UFC record. It’s just that the Brazilian lacks the necessary power to make up for her lack of output. Especially against Holm, who’s activity level alone should sway the judges each and every round.
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Jailton Almeida (-600) vs. Parker Porter (+435)

Best Bet
Fight Won‘t start round 3 (-225)
In sixteen professional fights, Almeida has only been to the scorecards once. In the fifteen fights that came inside the distance, not one has seen a round three. While Porter has been winning via decision of late, he has yet to see the scorecards in defeat. Only once in six losses, has he even been to a round three. With that said, the ingredients are ripe for an early stoppage in this one.

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Joseph Holmes (-195) vs. Alen Amedovski (+165)

Best Bet
Joseph Holmes moneyline (-195)
With a 32-month layoff to overcome and an 0-2 start in the UFC, I for one am not backing Amedovski. Instead, I’m going with Joseph Holmes who comes into his second UFC appearance with a full camp. A fairly well rounded fighter, Holmes does his best work on the ground. While he may score a submission finish, I’m not entirely certain – hence the moneyline pick.

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Omar Morales (-140) vs. Uros Medic (+120)

Best Bet
Omar Morales moneyline (-140)
When Medic fights, he looks for the early finish. Expending all his energy, Medic isn’t one for the long haul. Against an experienced an battle tested fighter like Morales, who has only been finished once via submission, I’m not so certain that Medic will score an early finish. In fact, I believe if anything, Morales will. Regardless, to be safe, Morales moneyline is the play.

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Chase Hooper (+150) vs. Felipe Colares (-170)

Best Bet
Felipe Colares moneyline (-170)
Having watched Hooper’s four fights inside the octagon, it’s evident that he’s a talented grappler. However, his striking is nowhere close to level it needs to be. As long as an opponent can keep the fight standing, they essentially have a path to victory. Colares has notably struggled with his takedown defense, but that’s has been due to facing effective wrestler. Hooper, with an 18% takedown defense, is not a wrestler. While this fight could get dicey at some points, I believe Colares has the striking, notably leg kicks, that can lead him to victory.

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Elise Reed (-155) vs. Sam Hughes (+135)

Best Bet
Fight goes the distance (-300)
One of the closest fights on the card, my gut feeling, is that Reed will narrowly edge it out. However, there is a level of uncertainty there not worth taking the risk. Instead, this fight going the distance sounds about right. Reed has been to the scorecards in three of her last five, while Hughes has in her last three fights. Statistically speaking and hence the odds, there has been an influx of women’s bouts going the distance this year. Think we can add another one to the total.

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