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|Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik|
Fight Start Round 3 (-250)
While the UFC poster advertises that both men combine for thirty-three knockouts, they also are two of the more durable Heavyweight’s on the roster. In forty-four fights, Volkov has only been stopped five times. Of those five, two have been by knockout. Which is relevant, given Rozenstruik is a striker who has never won via submission. Also in the Suriname native’s thirteen fights, he has only been stopped once.
Digging a little deeper, in Volkov’s last seventeen fights, the Russian has started round three fourteen times. As for Rozenstruik, three of his last six fights have started round three. Which, may not appear statistically great. Until you delve into the fact that Rozenstruik has seen thirteen of his fifteen fights end inside the distance.
|Alonzo Menifield vs. Askar Mozharov|
Under 1 1/2 round (-230)
In thirty-one professional fights, Mozharov has only been to the scorecards twice. Of those twenty-nine fights that ended inside the distance, only once has the Ukrainian seen a round two. Throw in the fact that Mozharov’s last twenty-one fights have been halted in round one, and it seems unlikely that streak will end. Especially considering, the knockout artist Menifield, has seen eight of eleven stoppage victories end in round one.
|Ode Osbourne vs. Zarrukh Adashev|
Ode Osbourne moneyline (-190)
Of all the bets, I’m not as confident in this prediction. However, at this line and given the opponent, Osbourne seems like a good bet. Adashev is a credentialed kickboxer, who once fought for Glory. Since transitioning over to MMA, Adashev has won only four of his seven fights. Clearly lacking experience, especially in some disciplines such as wrestling, Adashev is ripe for the picking. Osbourne may not be an excellent wrestler, but he certainly can threaten with a takedown or two. Even on the feet, with a two inch height and seven inch reach advantage, Osbourne should be able to find success. Especially if he sticks to the outside and pumps a jab.
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|Johnny Munoz vs. Tony Gravely|
Johnny Munoz moneyline (+120)
Since debuting in the UFC in 2020, Gravely has secured an absurd 28 takedowns in five fights. A wrestler to the core, Gravely has clearly had little issues taking opponents down. However, styles make fights. Munoz being a grappler, with excellent submissions, brings forth a style that has largely haunted Gravely. Despite being a good grappler himself, Gravely has had issues with submission defense. Of his seven defeats, five have come via submission. Given Munoz has recorded six submission in his last eight wins, I’m siding with that danger over believing Gravely can smother and withstand being caught.
|Jeff Molina vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov|
Jeff Molina moneyline (-180)
When the UFC signed Zhumagulov, I thought his talent would see him climb the Flyweight division. However, a 1-3 record in four fights inside the octagon say otherwise. Now tasked with fighting a talented and insanely active fighter in Molina, and I’m fairly certain that Zhumagulov may be on the chopping block after this bout. Unless, the Kazakh can find success wrestling and smothering Molina. It’s the only realistic route to victory for Zhumagulov, as Molina more than doubles him in significant strikes per minute.
|Andreas Michailidis vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov|
Under 2 1/2 Rounds (-150)
While I believe Fakhretdinov will win this fight, I don’t see the point in picking the Russian to win inside the distance at -110, when at -150, I can get under 2 1/2 rounds. Anything can happen in a fight, and I’d rather be safe then sorry. As for the reason’s I don’t see this going the distance. In Fakhretdinov’s twenty-two fights, nineteen have ended inside the distance. Of those nineteen stoppages, none have reached round three. Meanwhile, Michailidis has seen sixteen of his eighteen fights end inside the distance. Of those sixteen stoppages, only one has made it to round three. In other words, this fight ain’t going the distance and seems likely to not even see round three.
| Dan Ige vs. Movsar Evloev|
Upset Sprinkle Bet
Dan Ige (+300)
Understanding Evloev is an undefeated, well rounded fighter with exceptional wrestling abilities, I don’t think siding with Ige is a bad play at this line. Not only is Ige competitive in every fight, but he is certainly the stiffest test Evloev has ever fought. While his takedown defense needs work and will be exploited, Ige has the grappling to pop back up. Something in which I believe will aid him in keeping this fight close and potentially pulling off the upset. At +300, this seems to good to pass up on.