Best Plays

9k Range

Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,500) – The highest priced fighter on the slate, the undefeated Nurmagomedov has yet to face any resistance thus far. Averaging 108.6 points, which is the highest on the slate, Nurmagomedov is a worthy play. The only concern is whether or not Nurmagomedov can topple his high of 111.7 points – which is the fourth most on the card.

Arman Tsarukyan ($9,100) – Perhaps the best play in the 9k range, Tsarukyan is someone you can count on. Averaging 104.12 points in victory, with a high of 125.7, Tsarukyan is evolving into one of the best Lightweight’s on the planet. One half of the main event, Tsarukyan will have an additional ten minutes to gain points – which given his complete skillset, sounds to me like a career high may be in play.

8k Range

Chris Curtis ($8,600) – When Curtis came to the UFC, as a Middleweight, I thought that he might get bullied inside the octagon. Instead, Curtis has been the bully. In two fights, Curtis is averaging 107.5 points – which is the third highest on the card. Against a talented BJJ black belt, with legitimate cardio issues, Curtis could be in store for yet another 100 point performance.

7k and Under Range

Tafon Nchukwi ($7,900) – Da Don is an intriguing play in the 7k range. Averaging 103.35 in victory, with a low of 100.9 points, Nchukwi has an excellent floor. Against a fellow striker in Carlos Ulberg, who is only five fights into his mixed martial arts career, Nchukwi has the blend of striking and wrestling to upend the Kiwi.

Rodolfo Vieira ($7,600) – When backing Vieira, you can expect him to score a finish or gas out. Averaging 82.1 points, which is the third highest in the 7k range, Vieira isn’t the worst play. It’s just one that will have you on edge until the fight is over.

Brian Kelleher ($7,500) – One of the statistically best fighters on the card, Kelleher is number one in most scored in victory at 125.9 and second in average points scored in victory at 108.5. At 7.5k, it’s hard to not take a long gander at the Long Island native.

Mateusz Gamrot ($7,100) – As a former KSW Champion, Gamrot heads into his first UFC main event with experience and momentum. Averaging the 4th most career points at 90.7, with that number bumping up to 102.5 in victory, Gamrot is worth a stab at 7.1k.

Neil Magny ($6,900) – Perhaps the lowest Magny has ever been priced, it’s hard not to highlight him. Averaging 87.53 points in victory, Magny may not knock your socks off. However, with nineteen UFC victories and priced below 7k, Magny is hard to pass at this salary saver rate.

Nate Maness ($6,800) – Being overlooked, even by me, Maness may be the toughest opponent Umar Nurmagomedov has faced. With solid takedown defense, and knockout power – Maness certainly has a chance in this fight. Averaging 92.7 career points, which is the fourth most on the card, and with a high of 104.5, Maness is a risk that could prove rewarding.

Fades

Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,300) – There is no denying that Rakhmonov is a talent. However, despite scoring finishes in all three of his fights inside the octagon, Rahmonov is averaging 103.6 points. One fight, he only scored 98.2. Against his toughest opponent in Neil Magny and at this price, I’m not sure I can bite on the Kazakh this time around.

Jinh Yu Frey ($9,200) – As much as Frey has impressed of late, she is only scoring 68.75 in victory. As the third highest priced fighter on the card, there is little to no chance that the juice is worth the squeeze.

Alan Baudot ($8,400) – In the Heavyweight division, anything can happen. However when reflecting on Baudot’s career, in the last six fights, he has only one legitimate win. Which didn’t even come in the UFC. So at 8.4k, it’s hard to find a positive in paying up for the Frenchman.

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