Nathaniel Wood ($9,400) – Although I dislike this price tag, Wood is someone I could see eclipsing 110 points. While his average points in victory at 100.55 suggest otherwise, against Charles Rosa, the Brit is capable of comfortably handling this fight wherever it goes. Back by excellent cardio, Wood isn’t someone who will slow down either. In my opinion, given his foe, Wood is worth the play.
Marc Diakiese ($9,100) – While Diakiese is only 6-5 inside the octagon, his most recent fight showed an evolution to his game. One that DraftKings backers can get behind, as “Bonecrusher” landed eleven takedowns and twelve minutes of control time in route to a decision victory. Seeing how Diakiese is paired up against a striker in Damir Hadzovic, who has a 37% takedown defense, one could expect the Brit to follow a similar gameplan.
Paddy Pimblett ($8,900) – Obviously there is a lot of hype surrounding Pimblett, which thus far, he has backed up. Averaging 108.6 points in victory, Pimblett has fought to finish. The one worry though, has been that Pimblett was rocked in each of his fights. A definite concern, just not one in this fight, as Leavitt is the furthest thing from a power puncher. Given Pimblett’s grappling and advantage on the feet, I could definitely get behind the hype in this fight.
Jonathan Pearce ($8,600) – A workhorse, Pearce is statistically one of the best fighters to own on the slate. Averaging a silly 6.79 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Pearce has translated that into an average of 117.7 points in victory. A number that is the third highest on the card, and arguably the best if you don’t count the lone victories by Mason Jones and Muhammad Mokaev. With a high of 138 points, which the third highest as well on the slate and a low of 95.7 points, Pearce is a high ceiling play that offers a safe floor.
Tom Aspinall ($8,300) – Undefeated in the UFC and dangerous everywhere, Aspinall is one of my favorite plays on the card. Averaging the second highest career points total at 109.8, which is also his average in victory, Aspinall is a proven winner. Knowing that he can comfortably fight wherever and still be a threat is reassuring, especially against a wrestling juggernaut in Curtis Blaydes.
Chris Curtis ($8,200) – Although Curtis comes into this fight on short notice, it’s nothing new for the “Action Man”. A striker, with impeccable takedown defense, Curtis has looked like a man on a mission. Averaging 97.8 career points, which is the fourth highest on the slate, Curtis seems more than ready to take on Hermansson. A tough opponent, but one without his grappling is less dangerous.
7k and Under Range
Curtis Blaydes ($7,900) – The other half of the main event, Blaydes is an excellent play. Known for his wrestling, which is historically the best all-time in the Heavyweight division, Blaydes has often found little difficulties getting the fight to the mat. Averaging 111.24 points in victory, with a high of 172.8, which is the card’s best and came in a five round main event, Blaydes could very well be apart of the optimal lineup.
Paul Craig ($7,700) – Risky as the Scot may be, he is currently unbeaten in his last six fights. In that span, Craig is averaging 105.92 in victory. Which is roughly 37 points higher than his victories outside the unbeaten streak in the last ten fights. Knowing his chin isn’t the best, there is some concern. Yet, at an underdog price and on this heater, how can you pass up on Craig? Especially against Oezdemir, who has had troubles on the ground.
Alexander Gustafsson ($7,600) – Not my favorite play, but statistically one of the best on the card, Gustafsson has eclipsed over 100 points in every victory in the last ten fights. With a safe floor and at a discount rate, the Swede could prove to be apart of the optimal lineup.
Muhammad Mokaev ($9,500) – The highest priced fighter on the slate, Mokaev does inherit some risk. The fact that he is only six fights into his mixed martial arts career, it’s tough to stomach the heavy price for him. However, with his wrestling and grappling acumen, perhaps he garners some points via takedowns. Opponent Charles Johnson though, is durable, a cardio machine and has some decent grappling himself.
Molly McCann ($9,300) – This price is absurd. Averaging 97.48 points, which is the lowest among those 8k and up, McCann isn’t someone I want to invest in. While I believe she wins, there is little chance I will fork up 9.3k for someone who has only eclipsed 100 points in two of her five victories.
Nicolas Dalby ($8,800) – The lowest points in victory on the card at 69.6, and among the worst in career points at 42.8, there is no justifiable reason to back Dalby.
Mandy Bohm ($8,400) – There is little to suggest that Bohm scores a finish or has the ability to rack up enough points to pay for her at 8.4k. If anything, opponent Victoria Leonardo is the play.