Link to Spreadsheet:

Best Plays

9k Range

Michael Morales ($9,500) – The highest priced fighter on the slate, Morales is worth every penny. Uber talented and coming off a debut knockout victory over Trevin Giles, which netted the Ecuadorian 117.8 points, Morales faces a short notice foe. One in which is no pushover, but was knocked out five fights ago.

Amanda Nunes ($9,200) – My favorite play in the 9k range, Nunes checks in as my second ranked fighter on the card. Coming in second in career points at an average of 99, while leading the slate in average points in victory at 117.9 and most points scored in victory at 158.9, Nunes is exceptional play. To be only the third highest priced fighter on the card, is a discount that would be foolish to pass on.

8k Range

Brandon Moreno ($8,900) – Moreno doesn’t scream must play, as he is only averaging 89.6 points victory and he scored only 66.4 points in the first meeting with Kai Kara-France. However, with the additional two rounds in play due to this being an Interim title fight, I could definitely see me having some stock in the former Champion.

Alexandre Pantoja ($8,700) – If there is anyone who doesn’t get the respect and notoriety in the Flyweight division, it’s Pantoja. Quietly stringing together exceptional wins, the Brazilian sits inside the division’s top five. While opponent Alex Perez is a stiff test, Pantoja’s grappling and submission abilities give him an advantage. Averaging 96.41 in victory and with a high in victory of 121.2 points, I’m very interested in playing Pantoja.

Matthew Semelsberger ($8,600) – Statistically one of the best plays on the card, Semelsberger checks in as my seventh ranked fighter. While the most recent victory only netted 62.7 points, Semelsberger has three wins eclipsing 100 points. Even better, two of those wins scored over 126 points.

Joselyne Edwards ($8,300) – As my eighteenth ranked fighter on my card, why on Earth am I spotlighting Edwards? Well for one, she looked excellent in her recent victory over Ramona Pascual. A fight in which she landed 164 significant strikes and netted 99.4 points. Two, her opponent Ji Yeon Kim has absorbed 229 significant strikes in the past two fights, is moving up back up to Bantamweight and has never landed a takedown in the UFC. All ingredients in which can make for a bigtime performance by Edwards. At a fair price of 8.3k, I’m in.

Sergei Pavlovich ($8,200) – This isn’t a play that I’m personally eyeballing. However, given the price and the nature of the fight at hand, Pavlovich makes a lot of sense to play. With all twelve of his knockout victories coming in round one and all three of his UFC victories scoring over 106 points, Pavlovich has made his backers very happy.

7k and Under Range

Nicolae Negumereanu ($7,800) – My nineteenth ranked fighter on the card, Negumereanu, like Edwards, doesn’t scream value. Averaging a mere 81 points in victory and with a low of 70.2 points in victory, I could see why people would fade the Romanian. However, I’m skeptical on his opponent Ihor Potieria. Who, has won seventeen straight fights. Yet, he has barely faced anyone and in that span, opponents combined for a 60-66 record.

Alex Perez ($7,500) – Statistically the best play in the 7k range, as well as my third ranked fighter on the card, Perez is glowing of value. While I’m not certain he wins, I don’t fault anyone for putting their stock in Perez. With a career points average at 83.4, which is the 6th highest on the card, as well as a high in victory of 134.5, which is the second best, Perez has often been a worthy source of points. As evident by the fact that only once in victory, has he scored less than 95 points.

Kai Kara-France ($7,300) – The other half of the co-main event, Kara-France is a nice salary-saver at this price tag. Known for his striking and power, the Kiwi has eclipsed 106 points in three of his seven UFC wins. Also, with the additional ten minutes to work with, if needed, Kara-France will have an opportunity to rack up more points.

Rafa Garcia ($7,100) – After dropping his first two fights inside the octagon, Garcia has found his stride with back-to-back wins. Coming in as my sixth ranked fighter on the card, as well as being the 6th best on the card in points in victory at an average of 104, Garcia is worth a play. Especially knowing that he has landed an average of five takedowns in the past three fights – which is 25 points right there.

Julianna Pena ($7,000) – As shocked as I was to see Pena unseat Amanda Nunes, I’m not surprised that she is my fifth ranked fighter. With a career points average at 86, which is the fifth best on the card and a high in victory of 127.8, which is the fourth best, Pena has often been a solid play. Gleaming with confidence and as the current Bantamweight Champion, Pena screams value.


Drakkar Klose ($9,100) – This price tag is too high to pick Klose. A fighter who checks in on my rankings at fourteen. The main reason for that is due to his mere 87.7 average in victory and lowest point total in victory coming in at 57.1 – which is the 3rd lowest mark on the card. Given he is coming off a knockout victory, his first stoppage not only in the UFC, but since August of 2015, I don’t see Klose’s value. Especially against a cardio backed wrestling machine in Rafa Garcia.

Don’Tale Mayes ($8,500) – Even though he is facing an inexperienced mixed martial arts debutant in Hamdy Abdelwahab, I don’t see the value in Mayes. Having put up his highest point total in victory at 124.2 in a recent win over Josh Parisian, one might wonder why. Well, in that fight, Mayes landed six takedowns. An anomaly for Mayes, as including his Dana White Contender Series appearances, he has only landed one takedown in six fights. Against an Olympic wrestler in Hamdy Abdelwahab, there is little chance that Mayes is the one landing six takedowns in this fight.

Ihor Potieria ($8,400) – With seventeen straight wins, one might fancy playing Potieria. However, he has barely beaten anyone worthy during this streak and his opponents during the span combine for a salty 60-66 record. Digging deeper, of those seventeen wins, only three of them came to opponents with more than five wins – one of which had a record of 17-18. At 8.4k, I’m at a wait and see on the Ukrainian.

Ji Yeon Kim ($7,900) – While Kim is known to rack up significant strikes (292 in the past two fights), she is also known to absorb them (229 in the past two fights). Strolling into this fight on a three-fight skid, as well as moving back up to Bantamweight, I can’t see a scenario in which I would fork up 7.9k for Kim. Especially when she ranks at the bottom in several categories.

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