*LATE: Post never went through. Apologies!*
Loopy Godinez ($9,200) – My number two rated fighter on the card, Godinez is statistically one of the best plays on the card. Number one in average points in victory at 114.3, as well as top five in career points, most points in victory and lowest points in victory, Godinez is someone to roster. Against a tough foe in Hill, who has had issues with wrestlers, Godinez could once again rack up the points
Josh Quinlan ($9,100) – A perfect 5-0 and coming off a lengthy suspension, Quinlan finally gets his opportunity to touch down in the octagon. With a 100% finishing rate, and three first round finishes, Quinlan is one of my favorite plays on the card. Known to be a fast starter and against Jason Witt, who has been knocked out three times in the UFC, two of which came under a minute, I like Quinlan’s chances at eclipsing 120 points.
Bruno Silva ($9,000) – My seventh rated fighter on the card, Silva is a risk or reward play. Having won eighteen fights by knockout, which is roughly 86% of his win total, Silva always has an opportunity to score 90 or more points. The risk however, is that he has been submitted in five of his seven losses. Which against a submission artist like Gerald Meerschaert, is a scary aspect to think about.
Martin Buday ($8,900) – My eighth rated fighter, Buday has won eight of his ten victories via knockout. Given opponent Łukasz Brzeski is more of a Light Heavyweight, who’s takedown defense, cardio and striking defense are all problematic. In other words, ingredients for a knockout victory for Buday.
David Onama ($8,600) – One of the budding stars in the UFC, Onama is starting to gain traction at Featherweight. Scoring back-to-back finishes, Onama is averaging 107.2 in victory – which is the fourth highest mark on the slate. At a tender price of 8.6k, and as my third rated fighter, it’s hard not to salivate here.
Marlon Vera ($8,500) – A winner of nine of the last eleven fights, Vera is on the cusp of earning a title shot. Known for excellent durability and striking, as well as sneaky grappling abilities, Vera is truly one of the best in the division. As my fifth rated fighter, and given the 129 points he scored in his most recent fight, Vera is a must play. Especially against a tricky and tough foe in Cruz, who’s getting older and has been knocked down four times in the past four fights.
7k and Under Range
Devin Clark ($7,800) – Risky at this number, Clark has made a living off weathering storms and coming back. Averaging 97.66 in victory, with a high of 129, he may be a play good play if you’re in a crunch.
Dominick Cruz ($7,700) – My number one ranked fighter, Cruz offers upside. Number one in most points scored in victory at 151.9, as well as top five in career points and average points in victory, Cruz is an affordable and solid option at 7.7k. The one caution on the former Champion, is that he has averaged 80.7 points in victory over the last two. Most of his point total came during his prime, before the major injuries.
Priscila Cachoeira ($7,500) – Known to be wild and with zombie-like durability, there is no stopping Cachoeira from turning a fight ugly. Unless, you’re a wrestler with good grappling. In which, Ariane Lipski is neither. Given that and the fact that Cachoeira has won three of her last four fights, I’m a little surprised to see the Brazilian as an underdog.
Jason Witt ($7,100) – With two UFC victories, which averaged 106.85, Witt can be a rewarding play. However, with three losses that averaged a mere 12.77, he is also risky.
Charlie Ontiveros (6,900) – The lowest priced fighter on the card, Ontiveros is worth a shot. Obviously lacking durability and having a salty 11-8 record doesn’t bode well for the American. However, opponent Gabriel Benitez is 1-4 in his last five fights – with three of the losses coming via knockout. The upside of Ontiveros coming through and having salary for some of the bigger plays seems worth it!
Ariane Lipski ($8,700) – A loser of two of the last three and with a career points average among the bottom half at 53.8, Lipski is very trustworthy. Checking in as my twelfth ranked fighter, which doesn’t include debutants, Lipski’s value doesn’t match this price tag.
Cynthia Calvillo ($8,300) – My fourteenth rated fighter, Calvillo ranks among the bottom in several categories. With only an average of 88.72 in victory, there is little upside in picking a fighter who genuinely doesn’t fight to their strengths.