A performance bonus is likely to come out of this fight in the Bantamweight division, as Louis “Da Last Samarai” Smolka takes on Davey “Dangerous” Grant. Having traded wins and losses for the past six fights, Smolka will need to start to find some consistency. A true live by the sword, die by the sword fighter, Smolka hasn’t seen the scorecards in the past nine fights. Meanwhile, Grant comes into this fight looking to halt a two-fight skid. Having developed himself into a formidable striker, Grant has shown even in defeat to Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez, that he can go toe-to-toe with more experienced strikers. Prior to the two consecutive loses, Grant has won three straight – two of which came via knockout.
As for a prediction, I have Grant winning. Stylistically speaking, this matchup favors Grant. With already established grappling abilities to go along with evolved striking, which has legitimate knockout power tied to it, Grant should be able to withstand whatever Smolka brings to the table. Smolka being once a flyweight contender, has seemingly lost his durability. Since returning to the UFC in 2018, he has been stopped in all three of his losses in round one. Now, Smolka having submission abilities is a little concerning given Grant has been stopped via submission four times in his career. However, in Grant’s last six fights, he’s only been taken down twice by Marlon Vera. Should he be able to keep this fight standing, it’s only a matter of time before the granite chinned slugger turns off Smolka’s lights. So with that said, I predict that Grant will rebound here via KO.
We have a pivotal fight in the Women’s Flyweight division, as former title challenger Katlyn “Blonde Fighter” Chookagian takes on Amanda Ribas. A winner of three straight and four of the last five, Chookagian appears to be closing in on another title shot. Having continually defeated potential contenders, Chookagian has held down her number one ranking in the Flyweight division. A win here, would make it awfully difficult to deny Blonde Fighter of a rightful second chance to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko. Meanwhile, Ribas is coming off an impressive victory over Virna Jandiroba. Returning to the Flyweight division, Ribas has been given a massive opportunity. One in which would catapult the Brazilian inside the top five, maybe even the number one spot.
As for a prediction, I have Ribas winning. Despite the six inch height disadvantage, Ribas brings a more well rounded and dangerous aspect to this fight. Physically strong, Ribas has had little issues getting opponents to the ground. In all six of her UFC fights, she has landed one or more takedowns. Mainly a striker, Ribas brings forth high ouput with a little blend of power. Averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute, and eclipsing over 70 strikes three times, Ribas isn’t afraid to let her hands go.
The one knock on Ribas, could be her chin. She has been stopped via strikes twice in her career and dropped in each of her last two fights. However, Chookagian is far from a knockout artist. Of her seventeen wins, only two have come via knockout. The last of which came back in 2016 on the regional scene. An active striker herself, Chookagian averages 4.59 significant strikes per minute. A solid number, but given her 35% accuracy, means she hits air more often than not. Looking to keep range and pick foes apart, Chookagian has found success against those unwilling to pressure. Ribas being of the stalking variety, will be problematic. Throw in the fact that despite the chin concerns, Ribas is one of the more unhittable fighters with a 70% striking defense, and I believe Chookagian may hit more air than ever. With that said, give me the more complete fighter in Ribas to score the upset via decision.
We have a scrap in the Lightweight division, as Frank “The Crank” Camacho welcomes newcomer Manuel “El Loco” Torres. A loser of two straight and four of the last five, Camacho desperately could use a victory. Having been out of action for nearly two years, the hard hitting striker will need to quickly shake off any rust in what should be an action packed fight. Meanwhile, Torres comes into his UFC on three-fight win streak. Most recently competing on Dana White’s Contender Series, Torres earned a contract with a controversial TKO win over Kolton Englund.
As for a prediction, I have Torres winning. While this is the technically Camacho’s lowest level of competition since joining the UFC in 2017, at this juncture in his career, it almost doesn’t matter. A grappler, who has ignored implementing that part of his game inside the octagon, Camacho likes to trade hands. Active on the feet, Camacho is landing an excellent 6.67 significant strikes per minute. However and this is where Camacho falls short, he is absorbing an absurd 7.31 significant strikes. To put that in perspective, over a fifteen minutes fight, that’s nearly 110 strikes. Seeing that he’s coming off a 41-second knockout defeat, which was the fifth time he’s been knocked out and seventh time overall he’s been stopped, I’d say Camacho’s durability is unreliable.
On the other hand, Torres is a finisher to the core. Not looking to fight long, Torres has won eleven of his twelve victories via first round stoppage. In fact, the lone decision victory is the only time he’s even seen a second round in fourteen professional fights. Looking more composed than ever in his most recent fight, I’d have to say that this version of Torres may have some success inside the octagon. Despite Camacho being notoriously tough, the damage seems to be catching up, as his once granite chin has become brittle. So with that said, I predict that Torres will win via knockout.
A Flyweight fight between newcomer Jake “White Kong” Hadley and Allan “Puro Osso” Nascimento kick off the main card. Making his UFC debut, the undefeated Hadley will look continue his dominance under the brightest lights. Having fought for Bellator, Cage Warriors and on Dana White’s Contender Series, Hadley looks to be more experienced than his eight professional fights make it seem. Meanwhile, Nascimento comes into this fight off an unsuccessful UFC debut. A fight in which was close, but saw Tagir Ulanbekov edge out the Brazilian via split decision. Looking to rebound, Nascimento will hope the second’s time the charm for his first UFC victory.
As for a prediction, I have Hadley winning. Flying under the radar, this fight could easily be a frontrunner for Fight of the Night. Hadley comes into this debut, UFC ready. He’s fought in several big organizations and has defeated opponents with a combined 40-9 record in the last five fights. A serviceable striker, Hadley’s area of expertise is his wrestling and BJJ. Smooth on the ground, with beautiful transitions, Hadley can be a headache to deal with on the mat. Especially if an opponent isn’t careful about defending his back. The result of which has seen Hadley win four times via rear-naked choke. No slouch on the mat though either is Nascimento, who has won thirteen of his eighteen victories via submission. However, as we saw in Nascimento’s debut, he has porous takedown defense and he can be controlled on the ground. Given Hadley’s skillset, he shouldn’t have many difficulties following the blueprint Ulanbekov laid out. The only concern is avoiding being submitted. Which to this point, hasn’t been something Hadley has as a professional and amateur. So with all that said, I predict that Hadley will successfully win his UFC debut via decision.
We have a pair of top ten ranked fighters clashing in the Flyweight division, as Viviane “Vivi” Araujo takes on Andrea “KGB” Lee. Returning to the octagon for the first time in 2022, Araujo will look to rebound from here recent defeat to Kaitlyn Chookagian. A fight that could of very well catapulted Araujo into a title shot. Meanwhile, Lee comes into this fight on a two-fight win streak. A much needed win-streak, as Lee had previously lost three straight and potentially could of been out of the UFC entirely should of it continued. However, with back-to-back wins, both coming via finish, Lee finds herself closing in on the division’s top five.
As for a prediction, I have Lee winning. While Araujo is a talented and well rounded fighter, she has struggled against high-output strikers. Odd, considering she herself is a high-output striker that averages 5.14 significant strikes per minute. Throw in the 2.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 94% takedown defense, and it’s baffling how Araujo struggled with Jessica Eye and Katlyn Chookagian. Lee fitting the mold, offers more output, accuracy, wrestling and striking defense than those two. Obviously every fight is different, but sometimes styles make fights. In my opinion, this is one of those fights. So with that said, I predict Lee to outpoint Araujo in a decision victory.
The Lightweight division see’s a pair of veterans clash, as Michael “The Menace” Johnson takes on Alan “Nuguette” Patrick. Looking to put a halt to a four-fight skid, Johnson enters the octagon with a sense of urgency. Having been out of action for over a year, Johnson should be recharged and ready to rumble. Meanwhile, Patrick returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022. Having failed to win a fight since 2018, Patrick enters with his UFC tenure likely on the line.
As for a prediction, I have Patrick winning. While this fight is every bit of a crapshoot, I just can’t side with Johnson anymore. Dating back to August of 2015, Johnson has won only won three of twelve fights. Albeit the competition was stiff, there were plenty of fights that Johnson had won until he didn’t. A story that has be re-written over and over. And while Patrick isn’t particularly great, especially given his questionable durability, he’s stylistically a fighter that has given Johnson issues. A grappler, Patrick’s game plan mainly centers around taking opponents down at will. Averaging 3.25 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Patrick does a pretty job following suit. When looking deeper into this fight, Patrick is 5-1 when landing one or more takedowns. Whereas Johnson is 2-7 when being taken one or more times. So with that said, I predict that Patrick wins via decision.
We have a pair of ranked fighters clash in the Women’s Strawweight division, as Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba takes on Angela “Overkill” Hill. Coming off a tough loss to Amanda Ribas, Jandiroba will look to bounce back in short order. Having had difficulties defeating ranked foes, Jandiroba is given another opportunity here to change that narrative. Meanwhile, Hill comes into this fight a loser of two straight and four of the last five. Fighting top notch opponents, Hill has been in competitive fights. Unfortunately for Overkill, the judges have not been kind – as three of the last four defeats have come via split decision.
As for a prediction, I have Hill winning. In what seems likely to be a close fight, it’s tough to side with Hill. Especially considering she is 8-9 in decisions, with four of those coming via split decision. However, Hill is the more complete fighter of the two. She has vastly improved her takedown defense and ability to pop up throughout the years. She is an excellent striker, who’s high output, cardio and durability allow her to never stop coming forward. She also had added some wrestling into her game, landing one or more takedowns in five of her last seven fights. The only concern I have for Hill against Jandiroba, is if she can avoid being pushed up against the cage and controlled. Jandiroba being a grappler, will look to grind on Hill and attempt to get the fight to mat. An area in which the Brazilian thrives in. If this fight happened a few years ago, I’d a probably sided with Jandiroba. However, Hill vast improvements on keeping the fight standing has me leaning towards her to edge this one out via decision.
The curtain jerker comes in the Middleweight division, as Nick Maximov takes on Andre Petroski. Undefeated, with two UFC wins under his belt, Maximov returns to the octagon looking to continue his climb. In Maximov’s most recent fight, he showed off his excellent wrestling, scoring eleven takedowns on Punahele Soriano. Meanwhile, the Ultimate Fighter 28 contestant Petroski has rattled off two-straight wins inside the octagon. Finishing both foes, Petroski has proven that he doesn’t need the judges to decide his fate.
As for a prediction, I have Maximov winning. Since fighting on Dana White’s Contender Series, Maximov has improved each fight out. While his striking is still developing, his wrestling abilities have yet to fail him. Landing fifteen takedowns and eighteen minutes of control time in two fights, Maximov isn’t shy about what his game plan is. The same could be said about Petroski, who too is a wrestler. In his two UFC fights, he has landed eight takedowns and a little over seventeen minutes of control time. With some power on the feet, Petroski can threaten if the fight stays standing. The one concern, which is ultimately why I’m not siding with Petroski, is his cardio. Often slowing down as the fight wanes, Petroski can be taken advantage by the right opponent. In my opinion, Maximov is that guy. Averaging 15.5 takedown attempts in two fights, expect this to be grueling and tiresome fight. One in which Maximov wins via late submission.
We have an intriguing fight in the Flyweight division, as newcomers Tatsuro Taira and Carlos “The Cannon” Candelario clash. Having fought solely in Japan, Taira will come to the US looking to prove that he is the best Flyweight on the planet. A perfect 10-0, Taira has impressively defeated four opponents with over ten victories. Meanwhile, Candelario comes into his UFC debut having most recently suffered his first professional defeat via split decision on Dana White’s Contender Series. Despite the loss however, Candelario earned a contract and finally will get a chance to fight under the brightest lights.
As for a prediction, I have Taira winning. From the tape I’ve seen on the Shooto Flyweight Champion, he’s very well rounded. Light on the feet, Taira likes to chop down foes with leg kicks and barrage them with quick strikes. Where his game is at it’s best though, is on the mat. With solid takedowns, devastating ground-and-pound and excellent submissions, Taira is not someone you want to be grappling with. If given even the slightest opening, he will be on you back with a locked in Rear Naked Choke. While Candelario looks UFC ready and could give Taira some fits, ultimately his lack of takedown defense and suspect cardio are going to be factors in this fight. So with that said, I predict Taira will win via submission.
Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev – Despite being stripped of his title, Charles Oliveira put forth yet another sensational performance. With the victory, Oliveira not only added on to his legacy, but staked his claim as one of the greatest Lightweight’s of all-time. Up next, a shot to reclaim his belt in a vacant title fight. While I really would love to see Islam Makhachev fight Beniel Dariush, the fact that the fight hasn’t been rescheduled yet, is a bad sign. Timing is everything. And right now, it favors Makhachev being elevated to a title shot.
Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodriguez 2 – After defeating Rose Namajunas for the second time in an action-less fight, Carla Esparza finds herself in a position where there is no justifiable way to run back a rematch. With that said, Esparza’s first title defense should be against Marina Rodriguez. The first time the two fought, it was resulted in a split decision nod to Esparza. Since then, Rodriguez has won four straight, including three top ten wins.
Michael Chandler vs. Conor McGregor – Needing to get back in the win column, Michael Chandler pulled off an incredible front-kick knockout over Tony Ferguson. After the victory, he ripped an all-time promo and called out Conor McGregor. A fight that makes a lot of sense and would be bound to entertain. The only issue is, when will McGregor be ready to fight?
Ovince St. Preux vs. Volkan Oezdemir 2 – While OSP didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his split decision win over Mauricio Rua, he still got the job done. Up Next? Perhaps another rematch. One in which he would be seeking revenge. A fight with Volkan Oezdemir, who defeated OSP back in 2017 via split decision.
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Randy Brown vs. Li Jingliang – Randy Brown has come a long way since Dana White signed him off “Looking for a Fight”. After rocky 4-3 start in the UFC, Brown has since caught his stride. With the win over Khaos Williams, he is now 5-1 in his last 6 fights. Up next? A top fifteen ranked fighter in Li Jingliang, who will be looking to bounce back after the mauling he received from Khamzat Chimaev.
Justin Gaethje vs. winner of RDA vs. Fiziev – After yet another tough loss in a title fight, Justin Gaethje will have to go back to the drawing board. A logical next fight, would be the winner of RDA vs. Fiziev. Two top ten fighters who are closing in on becoming contenders.
Rose Namajunas vs. Jessica Andrade 3 – Unfortunately for Rose Namajunas, this wasn’t the fight she could afford to lose and in the manner she did. While she might want a rematch, she is 0-2 against Esparza and the fight was a complete dud. Needing to climb her way back to the title yet again, a trilogy against Jessica Andrade makes a lot of sense.
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Tony Ferguson vs. Diego Ferreira – After suffering a brutal knockout defeat, which was his fourth straight loss, Ferguson could be at the end of the line. If not, a fight against a fellow struggling top fifteen fighter in Diego Ferreira would be ideal.
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Mauricio Rua vs. Ed Herman – Before losing via split decision to OSP, Rua had indicated that he wants one more fight. With that said, it’s only right to pair him up against a fellow veteran at Light Heavyweight. Looking up and down the roster, Ed Herman makes the most sense.
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Khaos Williams vs. Jake Matthews – While Khaos Williams lost a tough split decision, his stock didn’t really fall. With that said, perhaps a fight against a fighter in a similar place as him in Jake Matthews would work.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Alex Morono – At 43 years old, Francisco Trinaldo seems to not know who father time is. Defeating Danny Roberts, Trinaldo extended his win streak to two and has won five of the last six. While title aspirations may be tough to reach at this point, there are still fights to make for the veteran. One of which could be against Alex Morono, who has won three straight.
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Macy Chiasson vs. Josiane Nunes – Sticking to a grinding game plan, Chiasson defeated seemingly the number one contender at Featherweight, Norma Dumont. While the options moving forward at Featherweight are slim, perhaps Josiane Nunes could be next. A fight that would be quite the size discrepancy, but given Nunes has fought at Featherweight and as high as Lightweight – makes sense.
Brandon Royval vs. Matheus Nicolau – While Brandon Royval clamored for a title shot after an excellent submission victory over Matt Schnell, he’s not jumping over Brandon Moreno or Alejandre Pantoja – two fighters who defeated him. If anything, he’s a fight or two away in a division held up by a never ending rivalry. With that said, a fight against Matheus Nicolau would make a lot of sense. Especially given Nicolau has won five straight, three of which came inside the octagon over David Dvorak, Tim Elliott and Manel Kape.
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Blagoy Ivanov vs. Ilir Latifi – Blagoy Ivanov once again proved that his chin is made of granite in a win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The victory was Ivanov’s first in nearly three years. Instead of throwing him back in the deep end, despite being still ranked, a good next test would be against the sledgehammer, Ilir Latifi.
Andre Fialho vs. Niko Price – A hidden gem in the Welterweight division, Andre Fialho is starting to stir up some buzz for himself. After starching Miguel Baeza less than a month ago, Fialho followed that up with a spectacular knockout over Cameron VanCamp. Looking to comeback yet again in short order, Fialho is working himself into a favorite of Dana White’s. While I’m not sure how fast he can get booked, a fight against Niko Price screams violence.
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Tracy Cortez vs. Maycee Barber – Picking up a big win over Melissa Gatto, Cortez pushed her win streak to ten and improved to 4-0 in the UFC. Expecting a number next to her name come the rankings update, a perfect next fight would be against Maycee Barber.
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C.J. Vergara vs. Francisco Figueiredo – Albeit the media scoring the fight the other way, you can’t discredit the effort C.J. Vergara exerted in a tough fight. Moving along, perhaps a fight against Francisco Figueiredo would make sense.
Lupita Godinez vs. Luana Pinheiro – There is a looming problem at Strawweight, and her name is Lupita Godinez. With a well rounded game, and a heavy implementation of wrestling, the sky’s the limit for Godinez. A next logical fight could be against Luana Pinheiro, who saw a recent fight against Jessica Penne scrapped.
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Journey Newson vs. Guido Cannetti – After a much needed win, Newson could be paired up with a litany of opponents. Maybe Guido Cannetti being one of them?
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Danny Roberts vs. Carlston Harris – After seeing a two-fight win streak snapped, Roberts will have to once again pick himself up. If there is anything positive to take away from the fight, Roberts, for the first time in his career, went the distance in defeat. As for a what’s next. A fight against a fellow finisher in Carlston Harris would make for a highly entertaining bout.
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Norma Dumont vs. Leah Letson or Ramona Pascual – The fact that Norma Dumont missed weight at Featherweight, proves to me that she isn’t one to make Bantamweight again. Given that, the options are slim. Either Leah Letson or Ramona Pascual is feasibly up next.
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Matt Schnell vs. David Dvorak – While Schnell came out guns blazing, he got caught on the ground and submitted by Brandon Royval. Still ranked, Schnell should probably be paired up with another ranked fighter who just lost in David Dvorak.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Walt Harris – Marcos Rogerio de Lima threw everything he could against Blagoi Ivanov, but couldn’t put him out. Seeing the scorecards, which is a rarity, de Lima wound up coming up short. While de Lima may never reach a title shot, he is still an exciting fighter. What should be next is a fight against another heavy handed slugger in Walt Harris.
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Cameron VanCamp vs. Evan Elder – To get knocked out in your UFC debut isn’t exactly a great start, but the matchup itself against Andre Fialho wasn’t ideal in itself. A good next fight would be against a fellow fighter who debuted recently in Evan Elder.
Melissa Gatto vs. Montana De La Rosa – Despite losing her first professional fight, Gatto is still one to watch out for at Strawweight. A fun next fight would be against a similar gritty fighter in Montana De La Rosa.
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Kleydson Rodrigues vs. Victor Altamirano – While I thought Kleydson Rodrigues did enough to win, the judges saw differently. A logical next fight, would be against a fellow debuter who was recently defeated in Victor Altamirano.
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Ariane Carnelossi vs. Kanako Murata – After being dominated, Ariane Carnelossi is going to need to work on her takedown defense. A good fight to do such would be against Kanako Murata.
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Fernie Garcia vs. Kris Moutinho – There is a litany of matchups next for Fernie Garcia, but maybe Kris Moutinho makes sense.
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