We have a scrap in the Lightweight division, as Omar “Venezuelan Fighter” Morales takes on Uros “The Doctor” Medic. After a 1-2 stint at Featherweight, Morales returns to the Lightweight division. A smart move, considering Morales is 10-0 at 155 pounds. Meanwhile, Medic aims to bounce back after suffering his first professional defeat to Jalin Turner. A fight that Medic was simply outclassed in. Despite the defeat, Medic remains an exciting fighter worth keeping an eye on.
As for a prediction, I have Morales winning. While Medic has proven himself to be a finisher, it has largely come within the first two rounds. Landing nearly nine strikes per minute, Medic has been one to swarm opponents with sheer volume. However, there are certainly cardio concerns that follow Medic should his fight enter the second round. Seeing that Morales has only been finished once via submission to Jonathan Pearce, I’m not certain that Medic can replicate such. Especially considering that Medic doesn’t have the wrestling that Pearce stifled Morales with. What I believe happens in this fight, is that Medic will look strong in the opening round. Then, as the fight wanes, he will tire and Morales will takeover. With sharp striking and better cardio at Lightweight, I believe a finish is very possible. Let’s say Morales via TKO.
We have a clash in the Bantamweight division, as Jonathan “Dragon” Martinez takes on Vince “Vandetta” Morales. Having recorded seven wins since debuting with the UFC in 2018, Martinez has quietly been building himself up. A winner of two straight and four of the last five, Martinez seemingly is inching closer to finally cracking the division’s top fifteen. Meanwhile, Morales has rattled off two straight wins. Starting his UFC tenure 1-3, this win streak was much needed for Morales to progress in this gauntlet of a division.
As for a prediction, I have Martinez winning. While Morales seems to be settling in, Martinez appears to truly honing in his skills. Having won six of his last eight fights, Martinez has often been overlooked. A skilled striker, who features power and an array of leg attacks, Martinez has done an excellent job imposing his game upon his foes. Perhaps credit though to his takedown defense, which has vastly improved – seeing Martinez shrug off sixteen of the last seventeen attempts. However, he likely won’t need to worry about being taken down, as Morales is mainly a striker. One who is active and has the cardio to go a hard fifteen minutes. The concerns though that arise when Morales step inside the octagon are his takedown defense and slow starts. In fact, only once in four UFC fights that went the distance, has Morales won the first round. Seeing that Martinez isn’t someone that goes away easily or necessarily fades, I believe he should outlast Morales in a decision victory.
We have a clash in the Featherweight division, as Chase “The Dream” Hooper takes on Felipe “Cabocao” Colares. Having had a hard time finding consistency since joining the UFC in 2019, Hooper will look to rebound from a recent defeat to Steven Peterson. Showing off improved striking, Hooper will need to continue that growth in order to right the ship. Meanwhile, Colares is coming off a split decision loss to Chris Gutierrez. A loss that continued a pattern of wins and losses for the past six fights. Seeking to end that narrative, Colares will need to bounce back here first.
As for a prediction, I have Colares winning. Debuting in the UFC at 20 years old, Hooper has done as well he can. Leaning on his grappling abilities, he has won two of his four fights. However, when his grappling abilities have been met with resistance, he has largely been forced to strike. An area where he isn’t polished and has largely been vulnerable. While Colares isn’t an expert on the feet, he isn’t afraid to trade. Having an excellent ground game at his disposal, Colares has often tended to lean on getting the fight to the mat. However, in this fight, I don’t see that as necessary. With heavy leg kicks and a willingness to push forward, Colares has the necessary tools to take out Hooper. Something which I believe happens, as I predict Colares to win via TKO.
The curtain jerker comes in the Women’s Strawweight division, as Elise Reed takes on Sam “Sampage” Hughes. Coming off a victory over Cory McKenna, which was her first in the UFC, Reed returns to the octagon two months later. Looking to remain undefeated at Strawweight, Reed will look to secure her first winning streak inside the octagon. Meanwhile, Hughes snapped a three-fight skid, defeating Istela Nunes by a majority decision. The win was Hughes’ first inside the octagon, and a much needed one, as her UFC tenure likely hung in the balance. Returning a month later to build upon the victory, Hughes will seek her first UFC winning streak.
As for a prediction, I have Reed winning. Returning to the Strawweight division, after fighting up at Flyweight in her UFC debut, Reed looked much better at her more natural weight class. While taken down three times, Reed did a good job getting back to her feet, and getting off her offense on the feet. Showing off quick hands and good leg kicks, Reed fired off 76 significant strikes, Against Hughes, I expect that number to rise. Absorbing 5.7 significant strikes, Hughes has notably lacked striking defense. Where she gets credit though, is her toughness and willingness to win. While those are two important traits, unless Hughes plans on wrestling in this fight, I don’t see her outpointing Reed. So with that said, I predict that Reed wins via decision.
205 lbs.: Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic – The main-event comes in the Light Heavyweight division, as the former Champion Jan Blachowicz takes on Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakic. Returning to the octagon for the first time since losing the Light Heavyweight Championship, Blachowicz will look to rebound here. Still ranked number one in the division, Blachowicz could very well be one victory away from a title shot. Meanwhile, Rakic comes into this fight a winner of two straight. Improving his UFC record to 6-1 with back-to-back wins over title challengers in Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos, Rakic appears to be a victory over Blachowicz away from fighting for the title next.
As for a prediction, I have Blachowicz winning. While this a tough fight to call, I believe Blachowicz’s five round experience will loom large. Having recently lost his title, in a manner that included being taken down, Blachowicz seemingly was re-visited by old demons. One’s that saw Blachowicz lose four out of five fights early in his UFC tenure. However, to his credit, since that stretch of losses, Blachowicz has largely improved upon keeping the fight standing. In Blachowicz’s last eleven fights, he has shrugged off eighteen of twenty-two takedowns attempts – which includes Glover Teixeira’s two takedowns.
Given Rakic, who is a solid striker with legitimate power has resorted to wrestling of late, one could assume he may try to look to follow Teixeira’s blueprint. The one problem I foresee though for Rakic, is that he poses no submission threat. While it’s plausible he can rinse and repeat, I’m not so certain he can do such for five rounds. Blachowicz having fought for twenty-five minutes twice gives him a vast edge. One in which I see aiding Blachowicz to outlast Rakic, and win via TKO.
205 lbs.: Ion Cutelaba vs. Ryan Spann – The co-main event comes in the Light Heavyweight division, as Ryan “Superman” Spann takes on Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba. After storming into the UFC with four straight wins, Spann has hit a minor roadblock. A loser of two of the last three, including the most recent fight against Anthony Smith, Spann will look bounce back here. Still ranked 13th, Spann is positioned to climb back into the top ten with a victory. Meanwhile, Cutelaba comes into this fight off a victory over Devin Clark. A much needed win for the Hulk, who had previously been 1-3-1 in his last five fights.
As for a prediction, I have Cutelaba winning. Before rattling off why, I must say, from a marketing perspective, this fight is a home run. The fact that these two men’s nicknames are Superman and Hulk, set up an unlikely DC verse Marvel clash inside the octagon. One in which, I don’t see lasting all that long. Cutelaba is a wild-man, who has power and immense physical strength. Utilizing his wrestling the last two fights, Cutelaba has secured seventeen takedowns and over thirteen minutes of control time. The concerns whenever he steps inside the octagon are his wildness, durability and cardio. With the last two fights going to a decision, there have been some improvements made to the later two concerns. However, like I mentioned before, I don’t think this one is going to the scorecards.
Spann is good striker with power, but the best aspect of his game lies with his submissions. Often looking for an opportunity to latch onto a neck, Spann has claimed eight of his eleven submission victims via guillotine choke. While he doesn’t necessarily need to get the fight down the mat to secure a choke, he will often look to get his opponents against the cage to decide his next step. The problem with Spann lies with his durability. Having been stopped in five of his seven losses, including the last three in round one, Spann’s chin can be suspect. It’s a reason why I see various ways Cutelaba can get the job done. So with that said, in a wild one, give me Cutelaba to win via KO.
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135 lbs.: Davey Grant vs. Louis Smolka – A performance bonus is likely to come out of this fight in the Bantamweight division, as Louis “Da Last Samarai” Smolka takes on Davey “Dangerous” Grant. Having traded wins and losses for the past six fights, Smolka will need to start to find some consistency. A true live by the sword, die by the sword fighter, Smolka hasn’t seen the scorecards in the past nine fights. Meanwhile, Grant comes into this fight looking to halt a two-fight skid. Having developed himself into a formidable striker, Grant has shown even in defeat to Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez, that he can go toe-to-toe with more experienced strikers. Prior to the two consecutive loses, Grant has won three straight – two of which came via knockout.
As for a prediction, I have Grant winning. Stylistically speaking, this matchup favors Grant. With already established grappling abilities to go along with evolved striking, which has legitimate knockout power tied to it, Grant should be able to withstand whatever Smolka brings to the table. Smolka being once a flyweight contender, has seemingly lost his durability. Since returning to the UFC in 2018, he has been stopped in all three of his losses in round one. Now, Smolka having submission abilities is a little concerning given Grant has been stopped via submission four times in his career. However, in Grant’s last six fights, he’s only been taken down twice by Marlon Vera. Should he be able to keep this fight standing, it’s only a matter of time before the granite chinned slugger turns off Smolka’s lights. So with that said, I predict that Grant will rebound here via KO.
125 lbs.: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Amanda Ribas – We have a pivotal fight in the Women’s Flyweight division, as former title challenger Katlyn “Blonde Fighter” Chookagian takes on Amanda Ribas. A winner of three straight and four of the last five, Chookagian appears to be closing in on another title shot. Having continually defeated potential contenders, Chookagian has held down her number one ranking in the Flyweight division. A win here, would make it awfully difficult to deny Blonde Fighter of a rightful second chance to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko. Meanwhile, Ribas is coming off an impressive victory over Virna Jandiroba. Returning to the Flyweight division, Ribas has been given a massive opportunity. One in which would catapult the Brazilian inside the top five, maybe even the number one spot.
As for a prediction, I have Ribas winning. Despite the six inch height disadvantage, Ribas brings a more well rounded and dangerous aspect to this fight. Physically strong, Ribas has had little issues getting opponents to the ground. In all six of her UFC fights, she has landed one or more takedowns. Mainly a striker, Ribas brings forth high ouput with a little blend of power. Averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute, and eclipsing over 70 strikes three times, Ribas isn’t afraid to let her hands go.
The one knock on Ribas, could be her chin. She has been stopped via strikes twice in her career and dropped in each of her last two fights. However, Chookagian is far from a knockout artist. Of her seventeen wins, only two have come via knockout. The last of which came back in 2016 on the regional scene. An active striker herself, Chookagian averages 4.59 significant strikes per minute. A solid number, but given her 35% accuracy, means she hits air more often than not. Looking to keep range and pick foes apart, Chookagian has found success against those unwilling to pressure. Ribas being of the stalking variety, will be problematic. Throw in the fact that despite the chin concerns, Ribas is one of the more unhittable fighters with a 70% striking defense, and I believe Chookagian may hit more air than ever. With that said, give me the more complete fighter in Ribas to score the upset via decision.
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155 lbs.: Frank Camacho vs. Manuel Torres – We have a scrap in the Lightweight division, as Frank “The Crank” Camacho welcomes newcomer Manuel “El Loco” Torres. A loser of two straight and four of the last five, Camacho desperately could use a victory. Having been out of action for nearly two years, the hard hitting striker will need to quickly shake off any rust in what should be an action packed fight. Meanwhile, Torres comes into his UFC on three-fight win streak. Most recently competing on Dana White’s Contender Series, Torres earned a contract with a controversial TKO win over Kolton Englund.
As for a prediction, I have Torres winning. While this is the technically Camacho’s lowest level of competition since joining the UFC in 2017, at this juncture in his career, it almost doesn’t matter. A grappler, who has ignored implementing that part of his game inside the octagon, Camacho likes to trade hands. Active on the feet, Camacho is landing an excellent 6.67 significant strikes per minute. However and this is where Camacho falls short, he is absorbing an absurd 7.31 significant strikes. To put that in perspective, over a fifteen minutes fight, that’s nearly 110 strikes. Seeing that he’s coming off a 41-second knockout defeat, which was the fifth time he’s been knocked out and seventh time overall he’s been stopped, I’d say Camacho’s durability is unreliable.
On the other hand, Torres is a finisher to the core. Not looking to fight long, Torres has won eleven of his twelve victories via first round stoppage. In fact, the lone decision victory is the only time he’s even seen a second round in fourteen professional fights. Looking more composed than ever in his most recent fight, I’d have to say that this version of Torres may have some success inside the octagon. Despite Camacho being notoriously tough, the damage seems to be catching up, as his once granite chin has become brittle. So with that said, I predict that Torres will win via knockout.
125 lbs.: Jake Hadley vs. Allan Nascimento – A Flyweight fight between newcomer Jake “White Kong” Hadley and Allan “Puro Osso” Nascimento kick off the main card. Making his UFC debut, the undefeated Hadley will look continue his dominance under the brightest lights. Having fought for Bellator, Cage Warriors and on Dana White’s Contender Series, Hadley looks to be more experienced than his eight professional fights make it seem. Meanwhile, Nascimento comes into this fight off an unsuccessful UFC debut. A fight in which was close, but saw Tagir Ulanbekov edge out the Brazilian via split decision. Looking to rebound, Nascimento will hope the second’s time the charm for his first UFC victory.
As for a prediction, I have Hadley winning. Flying under the radar, this fight could easily be a frontrunner for Fight of the Night. Hadley comes into this debut, UFC ready. He’s fought in several big organizations and has defeated opponents with a combined 40-9 record in the last five fights. A serviceable striker, Hadley’s area of expertise is his wrestling and BJJ. Smooth on the ground, with beautiful transitions, Hadley can be a headache to deal with on the mat. Especially if an opponent isn’t careful about defending his back. The result of which has seen Hadley win four times via rear-naked choke. No slouch on the mat though either is Nascimento, who has won thirteen of his eighteen victories via submission. However, as we saw in Nascimento’s debut, he has porous takedown defense and he can be controlled on the ground. Given Hadley’s skillset, he shouldn’t have many difficulties following the blueprint Ulanbekov laid out. The only concern is avoiding being submitted. Which to this point, hasn’t been something Hadley has as a professional and amateur. So with all that said, I predict that Hadley will successfully win his UFC debut via decision.
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UFC Vegas 54 Prelims Card On ESPN2/ESPN+ (7:30 p.m. ET):
125 lbs.: Viviane Araujo vs. Andrea Lee – We have a pair of top ten ranked fighters clashing in the Flyweight division, as Viviane “Vivi” Araujo takes on Andrea “KGB” Lee. Returning to the octagon for the first time in 2022, Araujo will look to rebound from here recent defeat to Kaitlyn Chookagian. A fight that could of very well catapulted Araujo into a title shot. Meanwhile, Lee comes into this fight on a two-fight win streak. A much needed win-streak, as Lee had previously lost three straight and potentially could of been out of the UFC entirely should of it continued. However, with back-to-back wins, both coming via finish, Lee finds herself closing in on the division’s top five.
As for a prediction, I have Lee winning. While Araujo is a talented and well rounded fighter, she has struggled against high-output strikers. Odd, considering she herself is a high-output striker that averages 5.14 significant strikes per minute. Throw in the 2.10 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 94% takedown defense, and it’s baffling how Araujo struggled with Jessica Eye and Katlyn Chookagian. Lee fitting the mold, offers more output, accuracy, wrestling and striking defense than those two. Obviously every fight is different, but sometimes styles make fights. In my opinion, this is one of those fights. So with that said, I predict Lee to outpoint Araujo in a decision victory.
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155 lbs.: Michael Johnson vs. Alan Patrick – The Lightweight division see’s a pair of veterans clash, as Michael “The Menace” Johnson takes on Alan “Nuguette” Patrick. Looking to put a halt to a four-fight skid, Johnson enters the octagon with a sense of urgency. Having been out of action for over a year, Johnson should be recharged and ready to rumble. Meanwhile, Patrick returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022. Having failed to win a fight since 2018, Patrick enters with his UFC tenure likely on the line.
As for a prediction, I have Patrick winning. While this fight is every bit of a crapshoot, I just can’t side with Johnson anymore. Dating back to August of 2015, Johnson has won only won three of twelve fights. Albeit the competition was stiff, there were plenty of fights that Johnson had won until he didn’t. A story that has be re-written over and over. And while Patrick isn’t particularly great, especially given his questionable durability, he’s stylistically a fighter that has given Johnson issues. A grappler, Patrick’s game plan mainly centers around taking opponents down at will. Averaging 3.25 takedowns per fifteen minutes, Patrick does a pretty job following suit. When looking deeper into this fight, Patrick is 5-1 when landing one or more takedowns. Whereas Johnson is 2-7 when being taken one or more times. So with that said, I predict that Patrick wins via decision.
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115 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Virna Jandiroba – We have a pair of ranked fighters clash in the Women’s Strawweight division, as Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba takes on Angela “Overkill” Hill. Coming off a tough loss to Amanda Ribas, Jandiroba will look to bounce back in short order. Having had difficulties defeating ranked foes, Jandiroba is given another opportunity here to change that narrative. Meanwhile, Hill comes into this fight a loser of two straight and four of the last five. Fighting top notch opponents, Hill has been in competitive fights. Unfortunately for Overkill, the judges have not been kind – as three of the last four defeats have come via split decision.
As for a prediction, I have Hill winning. In what seems likely to be a close fight, it’s tough to side with Hill. Especially considering she is 8-9 in decisions, with four of those coming via split decision. However, Hill is the more complete fighter of the two. She has vastly improved her takedown defense and ability to pop up throughout the years. She is an excellent striker, who’s high output, cardio and durability allow her to never stop coming forward. She also had added some wrestling into her game, landing one or more takedowns in five of her last seven fights. The only concern I have for Hill against Jandiroba, is if she can avoid being pushed up against the cage and controlled. Jandiroba being a grappler, will look to grind on Hill and attempt to get the fight to mat. An area in which the Brazilian thrives in. If this fight happened a few years ago, I’d a probably sided with Jandiroba. However, Hill vast improvements on keeping the fight standing has me leaning towards her to edge this one out via decision.
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125 lbs.: Carlos Candelario vs. Tatsuro Taira – We have an intriguing fight in the Flyweight division, as newcomers Tatsuro Taira and Carlos “The Cannon” Candelario clash. Having fought solely in Japan, Taira will come to the US looking to prove that he is the best Flyweight on the planet. A perfect 10-0, Taira has impressively defeated four opponents with over ten victories. Meanwhile, Candelario comes into his UFC debut having most recently suffered his first professional defeat via split decision on Dana White’s Contender Series. Despite the loss however, Candelario earned a contract and finally will get a chance to fight under the brightest lights.
As for a prediction, I have Taira winning. From the tape I’ve seen on the Shooto Flyweight Champion, he’s very well rounded. Light on the feet, Taira likes to chop down foes with leg kicks and barrage them with quick strikes. Where his game is at it’s best though, is on the mat. With solid takedowns, devastating ground-and-pound and excellent submissions, Taira is not someone you want to be grappling with. If given even the slightest opening, he will be on you back with a locked in Rear Naked Choke. While Candelario looks UFC ready and could give Taira some fits, ultimately his lack of takedown defense and suspect cardio are going to be factors in this fight. So with that said, I predict Taira will win via submission.
185 lbs.: Nick Maximov vs. Andre Petroski – The curtain jerker comes in the Middleweight division, as Nick Maximov takes on Andre Petroski. Undefeated, with two UFC wins under his belt, Maximov returns to the octagon looking to continue his climb. In Maximov’s most recent fight, he showed off his excellent wrestling, scoring eleven takedowns on Punahele Soriano. Meanwhile, the Ultimate Fighter 28 contestant Petroski has rattled off two-straight wins inside the octagon. Finishing both foes, Petroski has proven that he doesn’t need the judges to decide his fate.
As for a prediction, I have Maximov winning. Since fighting on Dana White’s Contender Series, Maximov has improved each fight out. While his striking is still developing, his wrestling abilities have yet to fail him. Landing fifteen takedowns and eighteen minutes of control time in two fights, Maximov isn’t shy about what his game plan is. The same could be said about Petroski, who too is a wrestler. In his two UFC fights, he has landed eight takedowns and a little over seventeen minutes of control time. With some power on the feet, Petroski can threaten if the fight stays standing. The one concern, which is ultimately why I’m not siding with Petroski, is his cardio. Often slowing down as the fight wanes, Petroski can be taken advantage by the right opponent. In my opinion, Maximov is that guy. Averaging 15.5 takedown attempts in two fights, expect this to be grueling and tiresome fight. One in which Maximov wins via late submission.
– 17 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 9 Sub) – 2 of the last 3 wins came via stoppage – 4-1 when landing 71 or more strikes
– Stopped in 4 of 9 losses (2 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Stopped in last 2 losses – 1-5 when taken down one or more times
Aleksandar Rakic (14-2, 6-1 UFC)
– 10 victories via stoppage (9 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via decision – 6-0 when absorbing less than 49 strikes
– Stopped only once via submission – Decision loss was split
Jan Blachowicz (+130) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-150)
Best Bet Jan Blachowicz moneyline (+130) One fight removed since losing his title, Blachowicz finds himself an underdog against a rising contender in Rakic. While both men are two of the divisions best, plus money on a former champion seems hard to pass up on. Especially considering Blachowicz holds an experience edge in fighting for twenty-five minutes. Throw in the fact that Rakic has seen the scorecards in five of his last seven fights, as well as Blachowicz winning his last four decisions – And I like the former champs chances.
– 16 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO, 11 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via stoppage – 5-0 when landing 13 or more strikes
– Stopped in 5 of 7 losses (3 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 3-2 when absorbing 17 or more strikes
Ion Cutelaba (16-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC)
– 14 victories via stoppage (12 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via stoppage – 2-1-1 when landing four or more takedowns
– Stopped in 5 of 6 losses (2 T/KO, 2 Sub, 1 DQ) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 0-2-1 when absorbing 44 or more strikes
Ryan Spann (+180) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-220)
Best Bet Fight Won’t Start Round 3 (-250) In twenty-four professional fights, Cutelaba has only seen the scorecards three times. Oddly enough, two of those came in his most recent fight. Regardless of that, he’s been involved in nineteen fights that were stopped. Eighteen of those that came within the first two rounds. The same could be said about Spann, who has only seen the scorecards in five of his twenty-six fights. And of those twenty-one fights stopped, twenty have come within the first two rounds. I’m no mathematician, but I’d say there is a good chance this fight doesn’t go three rounds.
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Davey Grant (13-6, 4-5 UFC)
– 11 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 8 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via stoppage – 3-2 when landing one or more takedowns
– Stopped in 4 of 6 losses via Sub – Last 2 losses via decision – 1-3 when taken down one or more times
Louis Smolka (17-8, 8-8 UFC)
– 15 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 7 Sub) – Last 8 wins came via stoppage – 6-0 when landing 59 or more strikes
– Stopped in 4 of 8 losses (1 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 4-7 when opponent attempts one or more submissions
Davey Grant (-300) vs. Louis Smolka (+235)
Best Bet Fight doesn’t go the Distance (-245) I’m pretty certain that this fight will avoid the scorecards. With Grant’s newfound striking abilities and Smolka’s submission threat, someone is bound to get stopped. Given the fact that Smolka hasn’t been to the scorecards in his last nine fights, there’s a good chance this fight ends inside the distance.
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Katlyn Chookagian (17-4, 10-4 UFC)
– 3 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 10 wins came via decision – 8-0 when landing 68 or more strikes
– Stopped in 2 of 4 losses (2 T/KO) – Last 2 losses via stoppage – 9-4 when absorbing 27 or more strikes
Amanda Ribas (8-1, 5-1 UFC)
– 7 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 3 of the 4 wins came via decision – Won 5 of the last 6 – 4-0 when landing 21 or more strikes
– Stopped in both losses via T/KO
Katlyn Chookagian (-180) vs. Amanda Ribas (+155)
Best Bet Fight goes the distance (-225) While I was eyeballing Ribas to win by decision, it’s hard to count out Chookagian in most fights. Her high activity level, even despite missing 65% of the strikes she throws, helps sway the judges. With no finishing power to speak of, Chookagian is all but certain to go to the scorecards if she is to win. Given Ribas has seen the scorecards in three of the last four, with a Paige VanZant armbar victory being the lone stoppage win, I’d say this fight is likely to go to the scorecards.
– 19 victories via stoppage (17 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 7 of the last 8 wins came via stoppage – 2-1 when landing 100 or more strikes
– Stopped in 7 of 9 losses (5 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 1-3 when absorbing 59 or more strikes
Manuel Torres 12-2, 0-0 UFC)
– 11 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO, 6 Sub) – All 11 stoppage victories in round one – Winner of 3 straight
– Stopped in both defeats via sub – Only seen a round two once in 13 fights
Frank Camacho (+105) vs. Manuel Torres (-125)
Best Bet Under 1 1/2 rounds (+120) While one could make the case this doesn’t go past round one, I’d rather the extra allotted time just in case. Camacho has seen three of the last four fights come under this mark, while Torres has only seen a round two once in fourteen fights. In other words, the stars are aligned for this one to end early.
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Jake Hadley (8-0, 0-0 UFC)
– 6 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via stoppage – 4 first round stoppage victories
Allan Nascimento (18-6, 0-1 UFC)
– 15 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 13 Sub) – 11 first round stoppage victories – Last 2 wins via submission
– Never been stopped – Last 3 losses via split decision
Jake Hadley (-220) vs. Allan Nascimento (+180)
Best Bet Hadley wins by decision (+110) While this fight should be a grappling affair and feature several submission attempts, I favor Hadley in prevailing. Seeing that Nascimento has never been stopped in twenty-four fights, I don’t see a reason to believe that Hadley will be the first to crack the Brazilian’s durability.
– 7 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 4 Sub) – Last 3 wins came via decision – 4-1 when landing 61 or more strikes
– Only stopped once via T/KO – 0-2 when absorbing 98 or more strikes
Andrea Lee (13-5, 5-3 UFC)
– 8 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 5 Sub) – Last 2 wins via stoppage – 3-2 when landing 73 or more strikes
– Only Stopped once via submission – 3 of 5 losses via split decision – 1-3 when absorbing 61 or more strikes
Viviane Araujo (+100) vs. Andrea Lee (-120)
Best Bet Fight Goes the Distance (-280) Viviane Araujo’s last five fights have gone the distance, while Lee fought in six straight decisions prior to rattling off back-to-back stoppage victories. With both women only suffering one stoppage defeat, I’d say it’s unlikely this one ends inside the distance.
– 10 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 4 of the last 5 wins came via decision – 6-2 when landing one or more takedowns
– Stopped in 11 of 17 losses (2 T/KO, 9 Sub) – 2-7 when taken down once or more
Alan Patrick (15-3, 5-3 UFC)
– 6 victories via stoppage (4 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Last 4 wins came via decision – 4-0 when landing two or more takedowns
– Stopped in 2 of 3 losses (2 T/KO) – 1-3 when absorbing 23 or more strikes
Michael Johnson (-145) vs. Alan Patrick (+125)
Best Bet Alan Patrick wins by decision (+300) Since joining the UFC, Patrick has only one stopped one opponent – which came in his debut. Since then, all four of his victories have come via decision. While Michael Johnson is vulnerable to being stopped, he has been to a decision in four of his last six fights. With Patrick being 4-0 when landing two or more takedowns and Johnson 2-7 when taken down once or more, I like Patrick’s odds to grinding out a decision.
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Virna Jandiroba (17-3, 3-3 UFC)
– 14 victories via stoppage (1 T/KO, 13 Sub) – Last 4 wins came via stoppage – 3-0 when attempting a submission
– Never been stopped – 0-3 when absorbing 25 or more strikes
Angela Hill (13-11, 8-12 UFC)
– 5 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO) – 5-4 when landing one or more takedowns
– Only stopped twice via submission – Last 5 losses came via decision – Lost all four split decisions – 3-9 when taken down one or more times
Virna Jandiroba (-180) vs. Angela Hill (+155)
Best Bet Fight Goes the Distance (-200) Despite Jandiroba’s dangerous submission abilities, I find it hard to see that she will submit Hill – who has been to the scorecards in six straight and seventeen of her twenty-four professional fights. Throw in the fact that Jandiroba has never been stopped, and my belief that this fight goes the distance is solidified.
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Tatsuro Taira (10-0, 0-0 UFC)
– 8 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 5 Sub) – Opponents combined for a record of 111-64-15 – 9-0 as an Amateur
Carlos Candelario (8-1, 0-0 UFC)
– 5 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 2 wins via decision
– Opponents Combined for a record of 20-11-2 – 1-1 record since 2017 – Lone loss via split decision
Tatsuro Taira (-240) vs. Carlos Candelario (+195)
Best Bet Tatsuro Taira moneyline (-240) At the end of the day, I’d rather take Taira straight up then chase a finish. Which is highly possible given Candelario’s porous takedown defense and suspect cardio. However, he’s never been finished before. So in that regard, I have to proceed with caution.
– 5 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 3 victories have come via decision – Has Landed 15 Takedowns in 2 fights – 2-0 when landing 4 or more takedowns
Andre Petroski (7-1, 2-0 UFC)
– All seven victories via stoppage (4 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Has won 2 straight – 2-0 when landing 4 or more takedowns
– Stopped in lone defeat via TKO
Nick Maximov (-350) vs. Andre Petroski (+270)
Best Bet Nick Maximov wins by decision (+120) In this matchup that features a pair of wrestlers, I’m imagining this fight being an absolute grind. While that may appear safe, I do have some fears that Petroski, who has been known to have some cardio issues, can succumb to something late. A highly possible scenario given that Petroski’s lone professional loss came via stoppage, as well as loss in an exhibition fight on the Ultimate Fighter. With that said, it might be worth sprinkling something on Maximov Round Three at +1000.
UFC Vegas 54: Blachowicz vs. Rakic DraftKings Spreadsheet
Best Plays
9kRange
Nick Maximov ($9,300) – The highest salaried fighter on the card, Maximov is well worth the price. A wrestler to the core, in two UFC fights, Maximov has landed fifteen takedowns and roughly 18 minutes of control times. Scoring 123.6 points in his most recent fight, Maximov offers a solid ceiling.
Davey Grant ($9,100) – Never would I expect that Grant, who is on a two-fight skid, would be the second highest salaried fighter. However, I understand. Having improved upon his striking abilities, Grant has become a legitimate threat on the feet. One who in his last two wins, has won by knockout. Given Smolka has been finished in his last three losses, all in the first round, there is a potential Grant could be adding 90 points upon whatever else he accumulates.
8kRange
Ion Cutelaba ($8,900) – Anytime Cutelaba enters the octagon, there is certain risk. Known to be wild, sometimes Cutelaba can get himself into trouble. However, with knockout power and wrestling, he has the ability to produce big-time points. Averaging 110 in victory, with a high of 131.3, only backs that up. Throw in the 17 combined takedowns landed in the last two fights, and fantasy-wise, it’s hard not to like Cutelaba in this spot.
Manuel Torres ($8,300) – A known finisher, who has won eleven of his twelve victories via first round stoppage, Torres brings immense value at this price. While he too has been stopped twice, both times have come via submission. Frank Camacho, despite being a grappler, has only won two fights via submission. Due to his willingness to trade hands, Camacho has been stopped in seven of his nine losses, five of which have been via knockout.
Andrea Lee ($8,200) – Despite facing a tough opponent, Lee is the type of workhorse you can get behind. Always active, Lee has put up a respectable average of 91.3 points in victory. Currently on a two-fight win streak, in which she has put up scores of 103.8 and 115.5, Lee is a good bargain at this price. Especially when you consider she puts up an average of 56.7 points in defeat, which is the best on the slate.
7k and Under Range
Alan Patrick ($7,800) – Never would I have thought, I’d be saying Patrick was a good play in 2022. However, here I am backing him. Despite not winning a fight since February of 2018, Patrick has the style and right opponent to rack up point. A wrestler, Patrick will spam takedowns all fight long. Having put up over 100 points in three of his five UFC victories, including a 121.2 in a nine takedown effort, Patrick has a legitimate shot at repeating that.
Amanda Ribas ($7,600) – Moving back up to Flyweight, Ribas is tasked with fighting Katlyn Chookagian. A former title challenger and currently the division’s number one ranked fighter. However, despite the underdog tag, Ribas is the more well rounded fighter of the two. She also doesn’t have to worry about being stopped, as Chookagian is a point fighter with very little in terms of power. With the third highest career points average on the slate and a healthy average of 93 points in victory, Ribas is solid value at 7.6k.
Jan Blachowicz ($7,500) – Despite losing his title in his first defeat since 2019, Blachowicz carries excellent value at 7.5k. With knockout power and some decent wrestling abilities, there is a reason why he became champion. Averaging 93.7 points in victory, and with several twenty-five minute fights under his belt, Blachowicz may very well be one of the more popular picks
Andre Petroski ($6,900) – In a wrestler’s delight match, if you think Petroski can outlast Maximov, then he is a steal as the lowest salaried fighter on the slate. Averaging a card’s best 111.9 points, Petroski has in two fights, utilized his wrestling to the tune of eight takedowns and over 17 minutes of control time. With power on the feet, it will be interesting to see if he can hold off Maximov and keep his questionable cardio in check.
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Fades
Aleksandar Rakic ($8,700) – It’s hard to fade a fighter that is 6-1 in the UFC and in the main event, but Rakic can be a mixed bag. While the high’s are unequivocally apart of the optimal lineup, the low’s are problematic. Averaging a respectable 99.4 in victory, Rakic has eclipsed 100 fantasy points three times. Scoring an absurd 114.8, 125.8 and 150.6, you’d call me crazy for fading Rakic. However, it’s not been all good. In Rakic’s three other wins, he scored 99, 54.6 and most recently, 51.8. Proceed with caution.
Katlyn Chookagian ($8,600) – Never one to put up points, in victory, Chookagian averages a card’s worst 74.3 points. At 8.6k and against a tough opponent, I don’t think it’s feasible to invest much in the former title challenger. Unless your’e ok with less than 83 points, which has occurred in six of her last seven wins.
Virna Jandiroba ($8,500) – As much as I like Jandiroba’s skillset, I’m having a hard time justifying paying up for her against Angela Hill. A live dog, who has been on the misfortunate side of four split decision losses during her UFC tenure. If anything is certain, if Jandiroba can’t get this fight to the mat, Hill is going to land at will on the Brazilian.
Michael Johnson ($8,400) – Can he knock out Alan Patrick. Yes. Especially given that Patrick has questionable durability. However, with four straight losses and nine in the last twelve fights, Johnson has been one of the most unreliable fighters in UFC history. More often that not, Johnson has seen himself winning a fight, and then abruptly losing. A story of that has been re-written over and over. At 8.4k, I just don’t see how I can justifiable even trust Johnson. Even if no one picks him.
The main-event comes in the Light Heavyweight division, as the former Champion Jan Blachowicz takes on Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakic. Returning to the octagon for the first time since losing the Light Heavyweight Championship, Blachowicz will look to rebound here. Still ranked number one in the division, Blachowicz could very well be one victory away from a title shot. Meanwhile, Rakic comes into this fight a winner of two straight. Improving his UFC record to 6-1 with back-to-back wins over title challengers in Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos, Rakic appears to be a victory over Blachowicz away from fighting for the title next.
As for a prediction, I have Blachowicz winning. While this a tough fight to call, I believe Blachowicz’s five round experience will loom large. Having recently lost his title, in a manner that included being taken down, Blachowicz seemingly was re-visited by old demons. One’s that saw Blachowicz lose four out of five fights early in his UFC tenure. However, to his credit, since that stretch of losses, Blachowicz has largely improved upon keeping the fight standing. In Blachowicz’s last eleven fights, he has shrugged off eighteen of twenty-two takedowns attempts – which includes Glover Teixeira’s two takedowns.
Given Rakic, who is a solid striker with legitimate power has resorted to wrestling of late, one could assume he may try to look to follow Teixeira’s blueprint. The one problem I foresee though for Rakic, is that he poses no submission threat. While it’s plausible he can rinse and repeat, I’m not so certain he can do such for five rounds. Blachowicz having fought for twenty-five minutes twice gives him a vast edge. One in which I see aiding Blachowicz to outlast Rakic, and win via TKO.
The co-main event comes in the Light Heavyweight division, as Ryan “Superman” Spann takes on Ion “The Hulk” Cutelaba. After storming into the UFC with four straight wins, Spann has hit a minor roadblock. A loser of two of the last three, including the most recent fight against Anthony Smith, Spann will look bounce back here. Still ranked 13th, Spann is positioned to climb back into the top ten with a victory. Meanwhile, Cutelaba comes into this fight off a victory over Devin Clark. A much needed win for the Hulk, who had previously been 1-3-1 in his last five fights.
As for a prediction, I have Cutelaba winning. Before rattling off why, I must say, from a marketing perspective, this fight is a home run. The fact that these two men’s nicknames are Superman and Hulk, set up an unlikely DC verse Marvel clash inside the octagon. One in which, I don’t see lasting all that long. Cutelaba is a wild-man, who has power and immense physical strength. Utilizing his wrestling the last two fights, Cutelaba has secured seventeen takedowns and over thirteen minutes of control time. The concerns whenever he steps inside the octagon are his wildness, durability and cardio. With the last two fights going to a decision, there have been some improvements made to the later two concerns. However, like I mentioned before, I don’t think this one is going to the scorecards.
Spann is good striker with power, but the best aspect of his game lies with his submissions. Often looking for an opportunity to latch onto a neck, Spann has claimed eight of his eleven submission victims via guillotine choke. While he doesn’t necessarily need to get the fight down the mat to secure a choke, he will often look to get his opponents against the cage to decide his next step. The problem with Spann lies with his durability. Having been stopped in five of his seven losses, including the last three in round one, Spann’s chin can be suspect. It’s a reason why I see various ways Cutelaba can get the job done. So with that said, in a wild one, give me Cutelaba to win via KO.
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