We got ourselves rare fight in the Women’s Featherweight division, as Macy Chiasson takes on Norma “The Immortal” Dumont. The Ultimate Fighter 28 Featherweight winner Chiasson will look to bounce back from a submission defeat to Raquel Pennington. Having mainly fought in the Bantamweight division for the UFC, Chiasson has returned to the Featherweight division looking to establish herself as a legitimate title contender. Meanwhile, Dumont has won three-straight since dropping her UFC debut to Megan Anderson. The most recent fight was a main event spot against Aspen Ladd. A fight here Dumont didn’t look her best, but did enough to win. As the clear cut number one contender in the Featherweight division, Dumont will have to fend off Chiasson before eventually getting a crack at Amanda Nunes for the Featherweight title.
As for a prediction, I have Dumont winning. At one time, I saw Chiasson as an eventual title contender in the Bantamweight division. With excellent size and striking, she had the look of someone who could give Amanda Nunes a run for her money. And while she still can, even in the Featherweight division, I’m going to need to see more from her. Especially in the wrestling department, where her 23% takedown accuracy and 64% takedown defense needs obvious work. On the other hand, in four UFC fights, Dumont has landed at least one takedown every fight and stuffed all eight takedown attempts against her. Which is pretty surprising, considering she is primarily a striker. One who has excellent footwork, is accurate and is hard to hit. Other than her knockout loss to Megan Anderson, she has only absorbed 122 significant strikes in 55 minutes of action. With all that said, I believe Dumont wins this fight via decision.
We have a pivotal fight in the Flyweight division, as Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval takes on Matt “Danger” Schnell. Coming off a split decision victory over Rogerio Bontorin, in which snapped a two-fight skid, Royval will look to get his name back in the title mix. Still ranked 6th, Royval with a victory could see himself not only back in the top five, but in a title eliminator fight next. Meanwhile, Schnell is presented a big opportunity here. A loser of two of his last three fights, but still ranked 9th, Schnell has an opportunity to close in on the top five with a victory. Seemingly, his recent woes can be all undone with a victory against Royval.
As for a prediction, I have Royval winning. While Schnell has largely improved over the last five years, he has yet to establish himself among the best of the division. Not entirely due to a lack of skillset, but more or less because he lacks the necessary durability. In nine UFC fights, Schnell has lost four times. Of those four losses, he has been stopped three times. If you throw in his run in The Ultimate Fighter, Tim Elliott also finished Schnell. Royval, being the Tasmanian Devil, is going to all over Schnell from the jump. With an open invitation to being taken down, Royval is excellent off his back and is guaranteed to throw up a litany of submission attempts. On the feet, he is a tad reckless. Something I’d normally critic. However, against an an opponent who’s had durability issues, I could see it being effective. In the end, I believe the pace and non-stop attempts at finishing the fight by Royval will render the scorecards useless. So with that said, I predict Royval to win via submission.
We have a showdown in the Heavyweight division, as Blagoy “Baga” Ivanov takes on Marcos Rogerio “Pezao” de Lima. Looking to halt a two-fight skid, Ivanov may need to avoid the scorecards – seeing that he has been on the wrong side of back-to-back split decisions. Still ranked 15th, Ivanov is positioned to still garner big fights. Meanwhile, de Lima comes into this fight on the heels of back-to-back wins. The most recent fight being a career highlight, as de Lima stopped the durable Ben Rothwell in 32 seconds via strikes. Something which hasn’t been done to Rothwell since Cain Velasquez stopped him via strikes 12 years ago.
As for a prediction, I have Ivanov winning. While de Lima is certainly coming into this fight on a high, he’s still the same fighter. A powerful striker, who has some wrestling abilities and about a round’s worth of cardio. With thirteen of his nineteen wins coming in the first round alone, de Lima can be a nightmare to be in the cage with early. However, Ivanov presents some legitimate issues. Having fought some heavy handed strikers throughout his twenty-two fight career, not once has Ivanov been stopped via strikes. In five UFC fights, which include fighting the likes of Junior Dos Santos, Tai Tuivasa, Ben Rothwell and Derrick Lewis, not once has Ivanov even been dropped. A sambo fighter who is comfortable wherever the fight goes, Ivanov isn’t one to shy away from grinding a foe against the cage and looking for the takedown. Considering de Lima sports a 47% takedown defense, that could be worrisome, especially if the fight goes past the first round. In the end though, I see Ivanov weathering any initial danger and eventually winning via submission.
We have an intriguing fight in the Welterweight division, as Francisco “Massaranduba” Trinaldo takes on Danny “Hot Chocolate” Roberts. Refusing to let father time tap him on the shoulder, the 43-year old Trinaldo steps inside the octagon for the twenty-fourth time. Impressively, Trinaldo has won seventeen of those twenty-four fights and currently has won four of his last five. Meanwhile, Roberts comes into this fight a winner of two-straight. Something in which has eluded him since 2018. With injuries behind Roberts and given the current momentum, the time is now for Hot Chocolate to ascend up the Welterweight division.
As for a prediction, I have Trinaldo winning. You’d think that one of these days, his age is going to catch him. However, with wins in four of the last five, including one over Bobby Green, that day isn’t here yet. A physically imposing figure, Trinaldo has varied his approach depending on opponent. While he would prefer to take them down, and utilize his grappling strengths, he isn’t afraid to strike. With legitimate power, Trinaldo makes up for his lack of volume and technique often with a heavy blow. He’s also got this presence and ability to slow down fights to his pace, which remarkable has kept his cardio in good standings over fifteen minutes. The reason why I see Trinaldo coming away with the victory, is that while Roberts is the better technical striker and boast power too, his durability is questionable. In fact, he has been finished in all five of losses. Another area where I can see Trinaldo excelling is getting the fight to the mat, as Roberts sports a mediocre 56% takedown defense. Credit Roberts though, the five stuffed takedowns on seven attempts last fight against Ramazan Emeev was a sign of improvement. Regardless though, I predict that Trinaldo wins via decision.
A couple of rising Flyweight’s square off, as Tracy Cortez takes on Melissa Gatto. Currently on a nine-fight win streak and undefeated in the UFC, Cortez will look to continue her climb up the division. Currently unranked, that will likely change if Cortez can notch another win here. Meanwhile, Gatto returns to the octagon for her third fight in less than a year. Undefeated and coming off back-to-back stoppage victories in the UFC, Gatto is starting to establish herself as a fighter to watch in the Women’s Flyweight division.
As for a prediction, I have Gatto winning. While Cortez has been on some run, and has yet to taste defeat in the UFC, this is stylistically her toughest fight. As someone who isn’t a striker and has been reliant on wrestling to win fights, Cortez is going to have her hands full fending off the grappling and submission abilities of Gatto. Not exactly sharp on the feet, Gatto has been evolving in her standup. She still lacks the necessary technique, but makes up for it with aggression and a willingness to brawl. To be the first to stop Sijara Eubanks with that perfectly executed body kick up the middle is truly a sign of improvement. So with all that said, I predict that Gatto will win this fight via submission.
We have an action packed fight in the Flyweight division, as newcomer Kleydson “KR” Rodrigues takes on C.J. Vergara. Earning a contract after winning his sixth straight fight on Dana White’s Contender Series, Rodrigues gets his shot to fight under the brightest lights. Having fought opponents in the last five fights with a combined record of 23-8, Rodrigues seems to be ready for this step-up in competition. Meanwhile, Vergara will look to shake off an unsuccessful UFC debut back in November of 2021. Prior to the defeat, Vergara had rattled off five straight wins – all coming via knockout.
As for a prediction, I have Rodrigues winning. From the tape I’ve seen on Rodrigues, he looks to be the complete package. A composed, yet dynamic striker, Rodrigues will fire off an arsenal that including spinning back kicks, flying knees and a heavy dose of leg kicks. While Rodrigues’ takedown defense needs work, his grappling abilities allow him to reverse position or get back on to the feet quickly. Also, his cardio looks to be excellent, as he maintains a hard pace for fifteen minutes. Something in which he will need against Vergara, who proved in his debut that he has excellent cardio and can turn it on in round three. With excellent movement and striking, Vergara looks to swarm opponents with a blend of volume and power. A formula that has produced six of his nine victories coming via knockout. However, I’m pretty high on Rodrigues and I believe the UFC found a diamond in the rough here. In the end, I expect this fight to be an absolute battle, but one that Rodrigues wins via submission.
We have an intriguing fight in the Women’s Strawweight division, as Lupita “Loopy” Godinez takes on Ariane “Sorriso” Carnelossi. Coming off a victory over Loma Lookboonmee, Godinez will look to snap a trend that has saw her trade wins and losses for the past five fights. Not one to stay on the shelf, Godinez took a much needed five month break following a stretch that saw her fight three times in a six-week span. Meanwhile, Carnelossi comes into this fight a winner of two straight. Having put an unsuccessful UFC debut in the past, Carnelossi has used back-to-back stoppage victories to elevate herself in a good position. With a victory another victory, Carnelossi could be staring at a number next to her name.
As for a prediction, I have Godinez winning. While Carnelossi has proven herself inside the octagon, this is stylistically a tough fight for her. Known to be a pressure striker, with good cardio and volume, Carnelossi looks to break opponents down over the course of the fight. With good offensive wrestling and solid grappling abilities, Carnelossi has several options to gain the upper hand. However, Carnelossi has shown that her takedown defense and striking abilities against technical strikers may be her downfall. Godinez being technical on the feet and notably excelling in taking foes down (4.57 takedowns per minute), would appear to be a problematic foe for Carnelossi. So with that said, I predict that Godinez wins via decision.
We have a scrap in the Bantamweight division, as Journey Newson takes on newcomer Fernie Garcia. Out since September of 2020, Newson returns to the octagon looking to turn things around. In three appearances, Newson has lost two and saw a 38-second knockout victory overturned due to a failed drug test. Lo and behold, even with the layoff and poor success, Newson has been gifted another opportunity to prove he’s UFC caliber. Meanwhile, Garcia is coming off an impressive knockout victory on Dana White’s Contender Series. One in which earned Garcia a contract and extended his win-streak to five.
As for a prediction, I have Garcia winning. I’m not entirely certain about this one, but Newson’s concerns far outweigh his positives. For starters, Newson has been out of action for more than a year and a half and has been knocked out in two of his three losses. Throw in the fact that in three UFC fights, Newson sports a 32% striking accuracy, zero percent takedown defense and is only landing a mere 2.76 significant strikes per minute, and it’s hard to side with him. Now, from the tape I’ve seen on Garcia, he looks to have good striking, offensive wrestling and grappling. On the feet, Garcia looks to walk down foes and throw sharp combinations. Not afraid of a brawl, Garcia will stay inside the pocket and be composed. If he see’s a weakness in his opponent’s wrestling, Garcia will get the fight to the mat – where he is a patient, yet effective grappler. The only problem I’ve seen with Garcia is his takedown defense. However, credit to Garcia, he has often found a way to pop right back up. So with all that said, I predict that Garcia will win via TKO.
We have a scrap in the Welterweight division, as Andre Fialho takes on newcomer Cameron “The Invader” VanCamp. Looking to keep the momentum going, Fialho returns less than a month since impressively defeating Miguel Baeza via stoppage. Having yet to look phased against tough opponents, Fialho may be a player at Welterweight in due time. Meanwhile, VanCamp is set to finally make the walk. After seeing an injury scrap his UFC debut in September of 2021, eight month’s late, Van Camp will look to show off his skills inside the octagon.
As for a prediction, I have Fialho winning. While I’ve been sleeping on Fialho, it’s time to wake up. Having fought a competitive debut against Michel Pereira to then starching Miguel Baeza in his second appearance, Fialho is going to be a problem at Welterweight. Oddly enough, after two fights in the UFC, Fialho is getting a step down in competition. That’s no disrespect to VanCamp, but the truth. Fialho is a dangerous counter striker, who has power and a killer instinct. Coming into the UFC, Fialho was known to be a bit reckless and lacking of fifteen minute cardio. However, after two fights in the UFC, I’d say Fialho has improved upon both. Not to entirely count VanCamp out, but if he can’t implement his wrestling, he’s going to be in for a long night. Unfortunately for him, a scenario I see playing out. So with that said, I predict that Fialho will win via TKO.
UFC Vegas 53: Font vs. Vera DraftKings Spreadsheet
Best Plays
9k Range:
Alexandr Romanov ($9,600) – A perfect 15-0, with four wins coming in the UFC, Romanov is the highest salaried fighter on the card. For good reason however, as Romanov, with the exception of the Juan Espino fight, has been running through everyone. This Sherman fight should be no different, as the “Vanilla Gorilla” has lost three straight against fighters in the bottom of the division. Throw in the fact that this is his third stint in the UFC, and Romanov is a no brainer regardless of the price.
8k Range:
Gina Mazany ($8,900) – Not too often would I spotlight a fighter who is 2-5 in the UFC and currently on their second stint with the promotion. However, when Mazany wins, she racks up the points. Seeing that her opponent is Shanna Young, who is 0-2 in the UFC and has struggled with takedown defense, I see a perfect fight for Mazany to once again put up big time points.
Grant Dawson ($8,700) – Often when looking at fighters to roster, either finishers or wrestlers are key. Dawson being a wrestler with excellent grappling is one to target. Having yet to taste defeat in the UFC in six fights, Dawson is averaging a wholesome 98.82 in victory. Not great, but not bad at this price. Especially when you know he’s going for takedowns and control time.
Darren Elkins ($8,600) – A wrestler and durable fighter, Elkins has made a living out being in fifteen minute brawls. When he wins, he’s averaging a healthy 101.5 points. Mainly due to his wrestling, which has often been in his game plan. At 8.6k, I don’t hate Elkins, especially against a non-power threat in Tristan Connelly.
Rob Font ($8,300) – If there is anything certain, you should definitely have stake in the main event. My play however, will be Rob Font. Averaging the third most fantasy points on the slate, as well as the third highest in victory, Font is one of the better plays on the card. Durable and a high active striker, you can count on Font to rack up the points.
7k and Below Range:
Marlon Vera ($7,900) – In the last ten fights, Vera is 8-2. In those ten fights, he is averaging 96.78 points in victory with a high of 107.7. Having never fought in a five-round fight before, the opportunity to increase that high is very possible. The other aspect that Vera is solid in, is in defeat. Averaging 45 points, which is the second most, you can at the very least count on Vera to put up a significant amount of points.
Jared Gordon ($7,500) – This play comes with risk, as Gordon hasn’t faired all that well at Lightweight. While his durability can be problematic, his cardio and high activity are always focal points in victory. Averaging the fourth most fantasy points on the slate at 80.2, as well as the second most in victory (134.8), Gordon has the potential to be a strong play at this price range.
Gerald Meerschaert ($7,400) – If there is anything certain about Meerschaert, it’s that he can weather a storm and he’s a dam good submission artist. In fact, in his nine victories in the UFC, all have come via finish with eight being by submission. With good comes bad though, as Meerschaert has been stopped in eleven of his fourteen losses. However, that’s the risk you know playing Meerschaert. Averaging 87.32 in victory, you could do worse than picking a submission specialist at this price.
.
Value Plays
Krzysztof Jotko ($8.800) – Not exactly screaming value, but I believe this fight against Gerald Meerschaert is an opponent that fits well with his game. Having excellent takedown defense and with only one submission defeat in twenty-eight fights, you can trust Jotko to keep this on the feet and likely win. The only thing is, can he score a knockdown or a finish?
Gabe Green ($8,500) – This could be an interesting play, as Green should be involved in a scrap against Yohan Lianesse. The reason I liken Green at this price, is he’s shown durability and solid striking abilities thus far in the UFC. What we haven’t seen though is his dangerous grappling abilities. Against an undefeated fighter in Lianesse could prove to be tough, but I choose Green’s technique over the White Lion’s looping power shots.
Daniel Lacerda ($8,200) – I could see those avoiding Lacerda at this price. However, Lacerda is a better fighter than he showed in his UFC debut. An aggressive striker with dangerous submission abilities, Lacerda has won all eleven of his fights via stoppage (6 via submission, 5 via T/KO). The reason I liken Lacerda, is that his opponent Francisco Figueiredo isn’t much of a striker and has a bad gas tank. A recipe for a late finish if you ask me.
Jake Collier ($7,800) – If there is anything certain about Collier, it’s that he is an active striker and has good gas tank for a Heavyweight. Against Arlovski, who can be hit or miss with both activity and cardio, it’s plausible to see Collier score an upset and notch 90 or so points.
Tristan Connelly ($7,600) – This isn’t my favorite play, but if Connelly turns out to be a problem for Darren Elkins on the feet or with his grappling, this is a strong play at this price. However, I’m not so certain, especially considering Connelly doesn’t possess the power that has given Elkins problems.
The MMA Daily 