The MMA Daily

TUF 27 Finale: Tavares vs. Adesanya Predictions

July 6, 2018

International fight week has finally graced us, as we have back to back days of events. First up, the Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale. In what could be the final Ultimate Fighter, this card potentially symbolizes the end of an era. One in which has graced us with many UFC staples and Champions.

Headlining the event is a pair of Middleweight risers in Brad Tavares and Isreal Adesanya. Tavares, comes into this fight on the heels of four straight victories. With sixteen fights in the UFC, the Hawaiian has finally earned some respect, as he headlines his first UFC event. On the other hand, Adesanya gets his first headlining act in only his third UFC fight. With two UFC wins, the last coming via split decision, it’s clear the UFC is pushing Adesanya. With his fan friendly style and personality, it’s hard to argue not too.

Anyways, to the predictions!

FOX Sports 1 Main Card (10 p.m. ET):

185 lbs.: Brad Tavares vs. Israel Adesanya – This is a fun fight and a very difficult one for the young buck Adesanya. Tavares is very capable striker and grappler. He has the ability to dictate where this fight goes and there is almost no chance he gets taken down with his top notch takedown defense. However, his chin has shown glimpses of being a potential problem. Against a technical and precise striker like Adesanya, over five rounds I see issues with Tavares being able to keep up on the feet.

If Tavares wants to win this fight, he’s got to grind out Adesanya. A grapple heavy attack, one in which he has frequently used against opponents must be implemented here. However, like I said, his chin will be a problem in this fight. Adesanya is going to strike him at will and in the Championship rounds he’s going to eventually finish Tavares via TKO.

155 lbs.: Joe Giannetti vs. Mike Trizano (TUF 27 lightweight tournament final) – I didn’t watch a single episode of TUF, so forgive me. I’ll go with Giannetti via submission.

145 lbs.: Brad Katona vs. Jay Cucciniello (TUF 27 featherweight tournament final) – Again, I didn’t watch a single episode of TUF, so forgive me. I’ll go with Katona though via decision.

145 lbs.: Alex Caceres vs. Martin Bravo – Caceres often fights down to his competition, but with his UFC job potentially on the line, I expect him to get back on track with a decision victory.

125 lbs.: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Barb Honchak – Honestly, Honchak has better striking technique, but she lacks volume. Modafferi is the opposite, she’s not very technical, but she throws in volume. In what should be a close fight, I’ll go with Honchak getting the nod due to her cleaner shots that will show on Modafferi’s face.

185 lbs.: Alessio Di Chirico vs. Julian Marquez – Marquez has legit power in hands and I don’t think Di Chirico can hang with him on the feet as is. So with that, I have Marquez via knockout.

FOX Sports 1 Prelims (8 p.m. ET):

125 lbs.: Montana De La Rosa vs. Rachael Ostovich – Both fighters will be going for the submission, but it’s the wrestling of Ostovich that I believe will give her the best opportunity to finish this fight. So with that, I got Ostovich via submission.

155 lbs.: Luis Pena vs. Richie Smullen – I hear great this about Pena, so with that I have him via TKO.

145 lbs.: John Gunther vs. Allan Zuniga – No clue, Zuniga via decision

UFC Fight Pass Prelims (7 p.m. ET):

145 lbs.: Matt Bessette vs. Steven Peterson – Peterson is tough as nails and constantly comes forward, but at the same time he’s extremely hittable. Bessette is an experience offensive fighter and I fully expect him to dictate where this fight goes. So with that, I have Bessette winning via decision.

185 lbs.: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Oskar Piechota – This is a fun fight to open the card, as we have two solid Middleweight clashing. Meerschaert will like to get this fight to ground, where he features a solid submission game. Piechota, while he’s shown a well rounded game, will like to keep this on the feet. He’s not the most volume based striker, but he’s accurate and packs a punch. As for my prediction, I’m going with Meerschaert. He’s tough, durable, has more experience and locks up submission very quickly. So with that, I have Meerschaert via submission.
UFC Fight Night 132: Cerrone vs. Edwards

June 23, 2018

The UFC is back in action, as they travel overseas to a familiar destination of recent, Singapore. In what should be an entertaining night of fights, the main event headlined by top welterweights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone and Leon Edwards is all but guaranteed to be a hell of a scrap. I mean, when hasn’t Cerrone delivered a fun action packed fight?

Cerrone, most recently snapped a three-fight losing streak, as he defeated Yancy Medeiros by TKO. The losing streak was a rarity for Cerrone, as previously he had never even lost back to back fights in his career. As for Edwards, the British upstart has won five straight fights and seven of his last eight. He is more than due for this opportunity and headlining act. This fight has big implications for the winner, especially Cerrone, who with UFC win number twenty one would have the most victories all-time in the UFC.

Anyways, to the Predictions!

UFC Fight Night 132 main card (UFC Fight Pass, 8 a.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Donald Cerrone vs. Leon Edwards – This should be an excellent scrap, as you have the always game Donald Cerrone against a underrated Leon Edwards. Now, I have Cerrone winning this and I’ll explain. I believe while Edwards is the better wrestler, Cerrone can neutralize him with his scrambles or dangerous guard. On the feet, Edwards has good speed and power, but he’s also tentative. He doesn’t throw enough volume to put pressure on Cerrone. That lack of volume also doesn’t help in winning rounds either.

The way I see this fight playing out, is that Cerrone lands several precise and hard strikes at Edwards on the feet. Edwards then forces and overcommits on a takedown against Cerrone, who will lock up a submission, perhaps a triangle on the way down. So with that, I have Cerrone winning this via submission.

205 lbs.: Tyson Pedro vs. Ovince Saint Preux – I believe Pedro has a future at Light Heavyweight, but he’s still too green for me. His game seems to be best suited against those he can takedown and control on the ground. Given OSP’s wrestling abilities and submission game, I believe he can fend off Pedro’s takedown attempts. On the feet, Saint Preux should have his way against a learning striker in Pedro. So with that, I have OSP getting back on track via TKO.

125 lbs.: Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Jessica Eye – Back in the day, Eye was legitimately the best Flyweight on the planet. However, after fighting at Bantamweight in the UFC due to there being no Flyweight division until recently, Eye has slowly regressed in my opinion. It’s sad to say because her striking abilities were so sound. Anyways, Clark is well rounded and as tough as they come. In this fight, I believe she will dictate the pace and by round three, she will finish a tired Eye via submission.

170 lbs.: Daichi Abe vs. Li Jingliang – Abe is going to give Jingliang problems early, as he’s not afraid of slugging it out in a brawl. However, the difference is Jingliang’s iron chin, durability and cardio will carry him past the early storm. After round one, Abe often fades. Against a guy like Jingliang, fading will result in what I foresee is a knockout victory for the “Leech”

UFC Fight Night 132 preliminary card (UFC Fight Pass, 4:30 a.m. ET):

135 lbs.: Teruto Ishihara vs. Petr Yan – I once thought Ishihara was a legitimate threat in the Featherweight division. Instead, he turned out to be your prototypical slugger who’s got no wrestling skills. Now at Bantamweight, Ishihara is still the same fighter who’s cardio is a little worse. So with that, I have Yan via decision.

135 lbs.: Felipe Arantes vs. Song Yadong – Arantes might of looked like crap against Josh Emmett, but he’s a much better fighter than he put forth that night. Against a rather unknown like Yadong, he should make quick work of this step down in competition. So with that, I have Arantes winning via submission.

145 lbs.: Rolando Dy vs. Shane Young – Something tells me to go with the Filipino here via upset. I mean, Dy has shown improvements in his takedown defense, which will certainly aid his strength that is striking. As for Young, I didn’t garner too much in his thrashing against a very good Alexander Volkanovski. So with that, I have Dy winning via this fight decision.

170 lbs.: Hector Aldana vs. Song Kenan – Aldana hasn’t fought in over three years and Kenan is coming off a performance where he needed 15 seconds to put away Bobby Nash. I think Aldana is in for a rude awakening, as Kenan reintroduces him to mixed martial arts via knockout.

170 lbs.: Shinsho Anzai vs. Jake Matthews – The Jake Matthews that showed up against Li Jingliang is a legitimate future threat in the welterweight division. Let’s see if he can build momentum here with a tailored matchup. So with that, I have Matthews winning via TKO.

115 lbs.: Viviane Pereira vs. Yan Xiaonan – Coin flip goes to…Pereira via decision.

125 lbs.: Naoki Inoue vs. Matt Schnell – I’m unfamiliar with Inoue, but I’ve seen Schnell fight a few times. He’s pretty well rounded, but his chin and fight IQ are his downfall. Two things that will continue to plague him, especially in this fight. So with that, I have Inoue winning via submission.

125 lbs.: Jenel Lausa vs. Ulka Sasaki – While Sasaki holds a significant reach and height advantage on the feet, his durability is questionable at best. A power puncher like Lausa just needs one hard shot to connect to either Sasaki’s iffy chin or skinny body. Obviously Sasaki will most likely look to get this one to the mat, where he’s an absolute finisher. However, I have a feeling Lausa with his UFC tenure on the line will do everything in his power to keep this upright and finish Sasaki. So with that, I have Lausa winning via knockout.

125 lbs.: Ji Yeon Kim vs. Melinda Fabian – Considering Kim most recently beat Justine Kish, that’s all I need to pick her to win this fight viadecision.
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero II Predictions

June 9, 2018

This biggest UFC card on paper this year has finally arrived. However, not without controversy of course. On Friday, at the morning weigh-ins, Yoel Romero missed Championship weight (185) by a pound. He was given two hours to cut the additional pound for the title fight to become official. When Romero stepped back on the scale, he weighed in at 185.2. lbs. A mere .2 over Championship weight. Apparently an hour into cutting the additional pound, the Athletic Commission stopped Romero from cutting weight. My guess is that Romero’s expressions during the weight cut concerned the Athletic Commission about his health. The real concern though should be on the UFC and adopting more weight classes before something fatal happens.

With the main event in limbo, Whittaker stepped up and indicated that he’s willing to fight Romero in a non-title five round fight. Certainly Whittaker has every right to not fight, especially with the unacceptable trend of fighters who missed weight are 7-1. Even worse, the last ten males to miss weight are 10-0.

Anyways, the rematch is on, just not for the title. UFC Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker will remain Champion regardless of the outcome. Whittaker comes into this bout on an eight-fight winning steak, seven of which have come in the Middleweight division. Due to injuries and an illness, Whittaker has not been able to fight in nearly a year. As for Romero, if not for a failed weight cut on short notice against Luke Rockhold, he’d be the Interim Middleweight Champion. I guess that wouldn’t matter though, as he wouldn’t be able to unify the belts given he missed weight again. In what should be an awesome rematch, I can’t help feel the fact that it’s a non-title fight dampens the excitement.

Welp, to the Predictions!

UFC 225 PPV Main Card (10 p.m. ET):

185.2 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker vs. Yoel Romero – With Romero’s weight cut issue, this makes me question my prediction of Romero winning. However, I’ll stick with it.

In the first encounter between the two, Romero hurt Whittaker’s leg early, but never attacked it further. Romero who is a superior wrestler attempted only a few takedowns and Whittaker showed off that impressive takedown defense by thwarting them with relative ease. On the feet, despite hurt, Whittaker managed to outpoint Romero and capture the Interim Middleweight Championship (Later changed to the Undisputed Middleweight Champion).

In my opinion, the first fight, both men showed very little of their actual skills. With a bum leg, Whittaker couldn’t put up the striking output or use his footwork like usual. Romero for whatever reason showed hesitancy in striking and wrestling. So in this fight, I think we get the best of both. However, my opinion is that the best of Romero, especially with the wrestling can edge out Whittaker’s best. And even though Whittaker’s takedown defense is near immaculate, Romero can at the very least use the fear of a takedown to his advantage to land a fight ending blow. In fact, I’ll predict just that. So with that, I have Romero winning via KO.

170 lbs.: Colby Covington vs. Rafael dos Anjos for interim Welterweight title – As much as Covington talks, there’s no denying his skills. He’s a superior wrestling with excellent top control and has shown massive improvements in his striking and cardio. However, Dos Anjos is the epitome of a well rounded fighter. His weaknesses are hard to point out, especially now that he’s no longer cutting down and draining himself fighting at Lightweight. In what should be an excellent fight, I foresee Dos Anjos dictating this fight with his pace and ability to keep it upright. On the feet, Covington has looked better, but he was hit one too many times by a non-striker in Maia. If he doesn’t shore up his striking defense, he’s going to feel actual power.

So with that, my prediction is that Dos Anjos is going to soften Covington up for the first two rounds and then finish him off in round three via TKO. With the victory, Dos Anjos will become a multiple weight class Champion and the first Brazilian to accomplish this feat.

145 lbs.: Megan Anderson vs. Holly Holm – Anderson is a welcome addition to a thin as rails Women’s Featherweight division. However, she hasn’t fought in over a year and the competition she’s defeated in her four-fight win streak isn’t very good. Holm, while naturally a Bantamweight, has proved she can hang with the pound-for-pound queen and UFC Women’s Featherweight Champion Cris Cyborg. And while Anderson I believe has potential, she is still relatively green and is definitely not read for likes of Cyborg. If Anderson didn’t have a size advantage in this fight, I’d say she gets starched here, but because of that she might have her moments. However, I don’t see her winning this fight. So with that, I have Holm via decision.

265 lbs.: Andrei Arlovski vs. Tai Tuivasa – Honestly, this is a toss up. Either Arlovski keeps distance and is technical in his striking, attempting takedowns here and there in an effort to drag the fight into deep waters. Or, Tuivasa absolutely starches the iffy chin of Arlovski. I’ll take the later, but I won’t be surprised at the very least if Arlovski wins this. So with that, I have Tuivasa via KO.

170 lbs.: C.M. Punk vs. Mike Jackson – The motherload! Only kidding! With not much to research or break down here, I’m siding with the redemption of C.M. Punk. After getting embarrassed two years ago, he returns to his hometown to erase the horrors of his debut. Jackson on the other hand, while having more combat experience, is the same guy that got dropped and finished in 45 seconds by a non-striker Mickey Gall. Then he went to press row to do his duties as a journalist. Not exactly an indication he’s all in… Anyways, my prediction is that Punk takes down Jackson and ultimately submits him.

UFC 225 Prelims On FOX Sports 1 (8 p.m. ET):

265 lbs.: Curtis Blaydes vs. Alistair Overeem – This is a hell of a Heavyweight bout with big implications for the winner. Blaydes, is coming off a massive win over Mark Hunt. After being wobbled early, Blaydes was able to take down Hunt with ease and control him on the ground for the majority of the fight. The victory marked three consecutive for Blaydes, which put him in line for this massive fight. As for Overeem, the former title challenger had a rough go in his last fight. He was brutally knocked out by Francis Ngannou. However, previous to that defeat he had knocked out Mark Hunt and defeat Fabricio Werdum.

In a tough fight to call, I’m siding with Overeem. In Blaydes last fight, he was nearly knocked out and resorted to his wrestling that ultimately saved him. That won’t work here, as Overeem features some of the very best takedown defense in mixed martial arts. On the feet, Overeem is a technical striker who’s got not only power in his hands but god-like power in his knees. The only knock on Overeem is his chin, which has failed him in his last nine defeats dating back to 2006. Blaydes certainly has power, but he’s more reserved in his approach. He’s not exactly a one hitter quitter. So with that, my prediction is that Overeem win this via TKO.

115 lbs.: Carla Esparza vs. Claudia Gadelha – This fight was supposed to happen twice in Invicta FC back in 2013. The two have bad blood and I’m curious as to why the UFC didn’t capitalize on pairing the two earlier. Nevertheless, they will duke it out tonight! As for my prediction, I got Gadelha. While Esparza will look to grind out the victory, I think she’ll have a tough time implementing her wrestling on a physically stronger Gadelha. On the feet, Gadelha’s power will be too much for Esparza to handle. So with that, my prediction is that Gadelha will batter Esparza on the feet and win this via TKO.

145 lbs.: Mirsad Bektic vs. Ricardo Lamas – I’m sold on Bektic being a future contender, but that Darren Elkins dramatic comeback victory over him was only two fights ago. Now, he’s fighting a perennial top five Featherweight in Ricardo Lamas. To me, this is a drastic jump up and I foresee a really close fight. In instances like this, I lean on experience. So with that, I have Lamas winning via split decision.

265 lbs.: Rashad Coulter vs. Chris De La Rocha – Considering De La Rocha hasn’t fought in over two years and was starched in both UFC fights before the layoff, I can’t see this going well for him. So with that, I have the very tough Coulter notching his first UFC win via knockout.

UFC 225 Prelims On Fight Pass (6:15 p.m. ET):

205 lbs.: Rashad Evans vs. Anthony Smith – Can you really trust Evans to win a fight at this point? I mean, if you can’t beat a 40 year old Dan Kelly (no offense), then what makes me believe a 29 year old who’s fought 41 times? So with that, I have Smith via TKO.

125 lbs.: Joseph Benavidez vs. Sergio Pettis – It’s been well over a year since Benavidez last stepped inside the octagon. The possibility of ring rust or his skills diminishing could be possible, but I doubt it. Until further notice, Benavidez is still the second best Flyweight ever… So with that, I have Benavidez via decision.

155 lbs.: Clay Guida vs. Charles Oliveira – While Guida has looked better of late, this matchup just doesn’t bode well for him. Guida is a decent striker, who seeks to grind down opponents with takedowns and top control. Oliveira would encourage being taken down, as his guard is one of the best in mixed martial arts. If Guida opts to not even use his wrestling, I foresee a striking battle where he gets dropped in the clinch via knee to the body. From there, Oliveira will lock up a submission for the victory.

145 lbs.: Dan Ige vs. Mike Santiago – This could be an entertaining scrap to open the card, but I got Inge taking this one. Santiago has been taken down at will in his first two UFC fights. Considering Inge’s strength is his grappling, I believe he’ll do everything in his power to get this one to the mat where he’ll eventually submit Santiago.
UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera vs. Moraes Predictions

June 1, 2018

It’s rare for UFC events to place on a Sunday, which was the case last week in Liverpool, England. It’s even rarer for a UFC event to happen on a Friday, five days no less since the last event. I’m not complaining though, as we have an intriguing card that’s going down in Utica, New York. Headlining the event is a pair of Bantamweight contenders in Jimmie Rivera and Marlon Moraes. One would have to think too, that this is most likely a number one contenders fight. The winner undoubtedly would be deserving of a title shot.

Rivera heads into this fight on a tear, winning twenty consecutive fights. Of the twenty victories, five of them have come inside the octagon. Most notably of the five victories, is a huge victory over Urijah Faber. As for Moraes, the former WSOF Bantamweight Champion has started to build momentum in his quest for the title. Since losing his UFC debut via split decision to Raphael Assuncao, Moraes has notched two consecutive victories. The most recent being a huge knockout victory over Aljamain Sterling. Again, this should be a doozy of a fight, with the winner perhaps next in line for a shot at the Bantamweight belt.

To the Predictions!

UFC Fight Night 131 Main Card on FOX Sports 1 (10 p.m. ET):

135 lbs.: Jimmie Rivera vs. Marlon Moraes – This is a hell of fight. Rivera’s game leans on his cardio and pace. Given this is a five round fight and he’s yet to fight past three rounds, it’s an unknown if his cardio will hold up. Moraes on the hand, has gone five rounds twice, so that experience could be huge. Rivera relies heavily on his technical counter-striking and surprising he has legit power in his hands. Rivera also has solid wrestling abilities, which he could come into play due to the leg kicks expected by Moraes. Those said leg kicks though, if not caught or checked by Rivera could be a huge factor in slowing down and hurting Rivera.

In what should be a tight fight, I’m going to side with Rivera. Moraes is a hell of a fighter, who will has some of the best head feints and leg kicks in the division. He can compete with anyone and is most definitely Championship material. However, Rivera is tough, gritty and determined as ever. He’s got a chip on his shoulder and has felt he should of been warranted of a title shot. He’ll get it here, as I have Rivera winning via a close decision.

155 lbs.: Gregor Gillespie vs. Vinc Pichel – I could go on and on about how Gillespie is a ridiculously talented wrestler and the future of the lightweight division. However, people are sleeping on the power in the hands of Pichel. And given Gillespie has been some legit brawls, I very well could see him getting cracked and finished. In fact, I’ll double down on that and I’ll pick the biggest underdog on the card Pichel to win this via knockout.

265 lbs.: Walt Harris vs. Daniel Spitz – Harris has potential to be a fresh face in the Heavyweight division. Unfortunately of recent, he’s taken a few tumbles. However, this is a perfect opponent and fight to get back in the win column while showing off his skills. So with that, I have Harris winning via knockout.

170 lbs.: Jake Ellenberger vs. Ben Saunders – Oof! This is a battle of two veterans with evaporated chins. However, Ellenberger actually looked good in his last fight against Mike Perry before getting knockout out. On the other hand, Saunders has looked dreadful and easily hittable in his last few fights. So with that, I have Ellenberger via knockout.

145 lbs.: Julio Arce vs. Daniel Teymur – This should be a relatively fun fight. I’m not quite sold on Teymur, as his striking and durability are there, but it’s his cardio that can’t keep up with his non-stop pace. Arce is well rounded with good cardio and I expect him to use some takedowns to tire and neutralize Teymur on the feet. This should be fun early, but it’s Arce who well come out on top via decision.

205 lbs.: Sam Alvey vs. Gian Villante – Honestly I have no idea. Either Alvey throws 4 punches and somehow knocks out Villante with one or the fight is a boring slop fest with a gassing Villante getting a hometown decision. I’ll take the later. So with that, I have Villante via decision.

UFC Fight Night 131 Prelims on FOX Sports 1 (8 p.m. ET):

125 lbs.: Sijara Eubanks vs. Lauren Murphy – I’m a little unaware of Eubanks skillset, so I’ll side with Murphy. She’s gritty, durable and has never not been in the fight. At the very least, her wrestling and grappling should be able to her grind out a victory. So with that, I have Murphy winning via split decision.

145 lbs.: Nik Lentz vs. David Teymur – Lentz is a very talented wrestler and grappler. His striking is serviceable, but it’s his cardio that just doesn’t bode well for a three round fight. Against a cardio machine and in-and-out striker like Teymur, it’s only a matter of time before Lentz gets picked apart and finished via TKO.

170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Chance Rencountre – This is a rough matchup for your debut, as Muhammad is one of the more well rounded fighters in the welterweight division. With octagon experience and an ability to take this fight wherever, I expect Muhammad to cruise in a dominant decision victory.

155 lbs.: Desmond Green vs. Gleison Tibau – I’m not sure what to make of this fight, as Tibau is perhaps a shell of himself. However Green, while young and more athletic, has not shown he’s a finisher. If Tibau has something left in the tank, his massive size and strength advantage should allow him to smother Green on the ground. So with that, I’m banking on the belief Tibau’s not done yet and takes this via decision.

UFC Fight Night 131 Prelims on UFC Fight Pass (7:00 p.m. ET):

135 lbs.: Johnny Eduardo vs. Nathaniel Wood – While Eduardo definitely has a shot to catch and finish Wood, he is 39 years old and has shown signs of father time catching up. In what should predominantly be a kickboxing match, it’s the newcomer Wood who’s younger, athletic and has legit pop in his hands who I foresee coming out on top. So with that, I have Wood winning via KO.

125 lbs.: Jarred Brooks vs. Jose Torres – This is an awesome fight to open the card. I have Torres winning though, as Brooks is definitely an excellent wrestler, but his striking is just not there yet. And while I expect him to have success early with his wrestling abilities, it’s the later rounds where I believe Torres will begin his takedowns. On the feet, Torres will have no problem cracking Brooks and ultimately finishing him. So with that, I have Torres via TKO.
UFC Fight Night 130: Thompson vs. Till Predictions

May 27, 2018

The UFC is back in action, as the promotion heads to Liverpool, England. The UFC has hosted many of events in England, but this will be their first visit to Liverpool. Originally, this Fight Night was targeted for Dublin, Ireland. However, after Liverpudlian Darren Till shocked Donald Cerrone via knockout, the UFC saw a superstar who could tap into this local market. So, headlining the card is no other then rising superstar Darren Till and the two-time Welterweight title challenger Stephen Thompson.

Till, heads into this bout undefeated. In five fights in the UFC, he’s won four of them and the other was a draw. Surprisingly, the Donald Cerrone marked only his second finish inside the octagon, as well as the only one in the first round. As for Thompson, since losing narrowly via decision to Tyron Woodley in their title fight rematch, he’s battled some injuries that have only allowed him to fight once. The one fight though, was a rather convincing win over Jorge Masvidal. Now, in order to prove he’s worthy of the title again, he must first go through a rising superstar.

Enough talk, to the Predictions!

UFC Fight Night 130 Main Card on FOX Sports 1 (1 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Stephen Thompson vs. Darren Till – The motherload! The anticipation for the fight was killing me, but finally it’s here. The only thing sort of dampening it though, is Till’s failed weight cut. It’s sort of a bad sign, that he’s just too big for the weight class and he’s killing himself to get down to this weight. Nevertheless, as long as he weights in at the maximum of 188 lbs. on fight night, then the fights a go. If not, then the UFC will take a major dump on their specifically Darren Till targeted event in Liverpool, England.

Anyways, as for the fight, I have Thompson. Even before the weight cut, I had Thompson. While Till’s confidence is oozing and he backed it up against Cerrone, this fight is just too much too soon. Thompson a year ago was fighting in his second world title fight, while Till was fighting Jessin Ayari and Bojan Velickovic. Not exactly household names. And while Till is an exceptional talent on the feet, it’s Thompson karate style that is going to give Till problems. And for me, it’s how long will it take for Thompson to put away Till. I say the 4th round. So with that, I have Thompson via TKO.

170 lbs.: Neil Magny vs. Craig White – No clue who White is, but kudos for stepping up. Anyways, Magny via submission.

145 lbs.: Arnold Allen vs. Mads Burnell – Allen is a talent and Burrell is just fodder to elevate the young Featherweight to notoriety. So with that, I have Allen via submission.

170 lbs.: Makwan Amirkhani vs. Jason Knight – Talk about two fighters who started their UFC careers with tremendous fights and wins. From out of nowhere, they became potential stars and even possible title challengers. Then, the floor caved in.

Amirkhani began his UFC career with an 8 second flying knee knockout, followed by a first round submission victory in 2015. Since then, he’s only fought twice. Winning a lackluster fight against Mike Wilkerson and losing via split decision to a very talented Arnold Allen. As for Knight, while he didn’t win his debut against Tatsuya Kawajiri, he made up for it with four consecutive victories. Of those four victories, he earned three bonuses and the moniker of “Hick Diaz”. However, Knight’s accession was too quick, as perennial top ten Featherweight Ricardo Lamas knocked him out. Then, rather unknown Gabriel Benitez tore him on the feet.

In other words, this is a crossroads fight for both men. A must needed victory to propel themselves back into the spotlight is here for the taking. And in my opinion, it’s Amirkhani who gets the job done. His superior wrestling abilities combined with his supposed improved cardio should get him the nod here via decision.

170 lbs.: Claudio Henrique da Silva vs. Nordine Taleb – Silva’s last victory was over top ranked Leon Edwards. That was 42 months ago. Now, he returns to the octagon against a massive and streaking welterweight in Taleb. Silva is rather one-dimensional, seeking the takedowns and working from top control to get a submission. That won’t work in this fight though, as Taleb is a solid wrestler and grappler. He also should undoubtedly hold a strength advantage that will aid fending off Silva’s takedown attempts. On the feet, it’s all Taleb. So with that, I have Taleb winning via late stoppage.

185 lbs.: Eric Spicely vs. Darren Stewart – Either Stewart knocks out Spicely or Edwards for the third consecutive times succumbs via submission. I’m going with the latter, as Edwards grappling is a major hole in his game. Spicely on the other hand lives off his grappling and will do so here again, as he snaps his two fight losing streak via submission.

UFC Fight Night 130 Prelims on FOX Sports 1 (11 a.m. ET):

185 lbs.: Tom Breese vs. Daniel Kelly – I’m almost tempted to pick the 40 year old Kelly, but this matchup is against another powerful striker. You know what though, I’m going to say that Kelly makes this a sloppy and close fight. However, it’s Breese who walks away with a split decision victory.

135 lbs.: Lina Lansberg vs. Gina Mazany – While Lansberg is definitely the better striker, her grappling woes are problematic. She often finds herself against the cage, fending off takedowns and then the majority of the round on her back. I expect more of the same, as Mazany takes this via decision.

170 lbs.: Brad Scott vs. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. – Scott’s mediocre at best, but since I don’t know much about Pedersoli Jr., I’ll just go with Scott via decision.

125 lbs.: Molly McCann vs. Gillian Robertson- No clue… I guess the fellow Liverpudlian McCann via decision.

UFC Fight Night 130 Prelims on Fight Pass (10:30 a.m. ET):

185 lbs.: Trevor Smith vs. Elias Theodorou – The one they “Hot Sauce” has been a nice run recently, winning three of his last four fights. Smith has relied heavily on his wrestling and grappling to win fights. However, against a fellow wrestler and grappler such as Theodorou, I’m positive he won’t have as much success as he did in his victories. In fact, I believe Theodorou neutralizes Smith’s wrestling. On the feet, neither are good, but Theodorou might have the edge on volume.

As for a prediction, I have Theodorou. I believe he pins Smith to the cage and grinds his down for three rounds. Smith’s cardio has always been suspect, so even if he finds success early, it’s the fresher Theodorou who will take over the later rounds en route to a decision victory.
UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs. Usman Predictions

May 19, 2018

A week after a thrilling UFC 224 card in Brazil, which featured eleven finishes, the UFC heads further down South America to Chile. This will be the promotions first event in Chile and outside of Brazil, the second market in South America the UFC has attempted to tap into. Headlining the event, is a pair of welterweight contenders in former title challenger Demian Maia and rising superstar Kamaru Usman. Maia heads into this bout on a two-fight losing streak, falling defeat in a Welterweight title fight against Champion Tyron Woodley and then losing in an absolute mauling against Colby Covington. As for Usman, he’s on an absolute tear, winning all seven of his UFC fights. With superior wrestling abilities and an ever improving striking game, Usman is shaping up to be Championship material. This will be by far his toughest fight to date, but stylistically a favoring one.

To the Predictions!

UFC Fight Night 129 Main Card on FOX Sports 1 (10 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Demian Maia vs. Kamaru Usman – Just like the Woodley fight, this is stylistically a terrible fight for Maia. And given I been saying Usman is a future Champion for the past two years, I obviously I have Usman winning. Now Maia can pull a rabbit out of his hat if he can get Usman down, but I just don’t see it. I see a beat down that ends in the third round… Poor Maia.

115 lbs.: Alexa Grasso vs. Tatiana Suarez – Grasso is solid, but Suarez is a force. With superior wrestling and I mean superior, Suarez is a tough task for any Strawweight. If she could improve her striking, I have no doubt she will be unbeatable. Even without it, she’s Championship material. In fact, not only will she easily win this fight, but she will be the UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion in 2019. O, Suarez via dominant decision.

205 lbs.: Jared Cannonier vs. Dominick Reyes – Fun fight, but Reyes is the next big thing at Light Heavyweight. A division that is starved for young and fresh contenders. And while Cannonier is no walk over, he’s a stepping stone right now for the accession of Reyes. So with that, add another to the highlight reel, as Reyes lays waste to Cannonier via knockout.

135 lbs.: Guido Cannetti vs. Diego Rivas – Cannetti is wild and aggressive and in a fight I have no idea who to pick, that works for me. So with that, I have Cannetti via knockout.

125 lbs.: Veronica Macedo vs. Andrea Lee – This should be a fun back and forth fight that comes down to cardio. Given Macedo’s over a year layoff and Lee’s four fights in 2017, I’m edging Lee to be ready for three hard rounds. So with that, I have Lee winning via decision.

170 lbs.: Chad Laprise vs. Vicente Luque – While Laprise is finally building momentum in his promising career, it comes to a halt here. Luque is a stud. His striking is slowly beginning to catch up to his superior grappling abilities. In this fight, I could very well see Luque beating the striker (Laprise) at his own game. In fact, I predict Luque will drop Laprise at some point in the fight and then submit him. How about that!

UFC Fight Night 129 Prelims on FOX Sports 2 (8 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Michel Prazeres vs. Zak Cummings – Finally Prazeres has been forced to move up in weight. In only took three times of missing weight. Anyways, as for this fight, I have Cummings winning. I have to believe that his 6′ inch height and 8′ inch reach advantage will aid him here. That and also a strong wrestling game that will neutralize the grappling heavy Prazeres. So with that, I have Cummins winning via decision.

125 lbs.: Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja – This is going to be a wild fight wherever it goes. On the feet I edge Pantoja, as he offers a more technical game featuring leg kicks. Moreno is a little too wild and hittable at times to trust his standup. On the ground, both men are excellent at scrambling and have savvy submission artist.

However, the one aspect I believe will decide this fight is the wrestling abilities of Moreno. We all know Pantoja has had trouble with wrestlers. In his most recent fight against Dustin Ortiz, he was taken down seven times and thoroughly controlled. I see more of the same happening here after Moreno realizes that on the feet he’s outmatched. So with that, I have Moreno winning via decision.

115 lbs.: Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo – Don’t know too much about either women, but I know Kondo strikes in volume. And evidently that’s all I need to say that she gets it done via decision.

145 lbs.: Gabriel Benitez vs. Humberto Bandenay – Initially I was enamored by Bandenay’s size at featherweight, but he’s still green as a fighter. I mean, a little over two years ago, he lost against two mediocre fighters. Hell, one of them has a losing record. On the other hand, Benitez just won a huge fight over Jason Knight. He showed a real improvement in his striking and if he can get his wrestling down, we might have something here. So with that, I have Benitez out working Bandenay and submitting him in the later rounds.

UFC Fight Night 129 Prelims on Fight Pass (6:30 p.m. ET):

145 lbs.: Enrique Barzola vs. Brandon Davis – While Barzola is the favorite and rightfully so, I see potential in Davis. He’s a gritty striker, who can brawl or fight at distance. He’s got solid footwork and throws in volume. The knock on Davis is his wading cardio in the later rounds. That definitely could come into play in this fight, as Barzola heavily relies on taking down foes. And in this fight, given Davis is the better striker, Barzola will certainly look to take Davis to the mat. However, I’m confident in Davis to keep distance and shrug off takedowns. On the feet, he will pick apart Barzola en route to a decision victory.

135 lbs.: Henry Briones vs. Frankie Saenz – I feel for Briones, as his last three bouts have come against former UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody Garbrandt and two top twenty Bantamweight’s in Douglas Silva de Andrade and Rani Yahya. It doesn’t get any easier here. So with that, I have Saenz using his solid wrestling abilities to smother Briones and take this via decision.

155 lbs.: Claudio Puelles vs. Felipe Silva – No clue, but I think I remember Silva absolutely crushing some poor soul. So with that, I got Silva winning via KO.
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington Predictions

May 12, 2018

As crazy as this sounds, it’s been three weeks since the last UFC event. A rarity, given that seemingly every week the UFC puts out an event. With a 4.2 billion dollar investment and a roster over 500 fighters, WME is backing the idea that more events equates to more money. While somewhat true, I would argue that less events or PPV’s would equate to stacked card, more eyeballs and more money. Then again, I love this sport, so I can’t complain that every week I get to watch fights.

Anyways, the UFC is back in action, as they head to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Headlining the event, Women’s Bantamweight Amanda Nunes seeks to make a third consecutive title defense, as challenger Raquel Pennington looks to upset and quiet the native Brazilian. Nunes, heads into this bout on a six-fight win streak and most recently defeated Valentina Shevchenko for the second time. Given that Shevchenko was the consensus second best Women’s Bantamweight before dropping to Flyweight, Nunes appears to be on the road to pure dominance in the Women’s Bantamweight division.

However, Pennington is no pushover and comes into this bout on a four-fight win streak. Pennington’s most recent fight dates back to November of 2016, as she defeated former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate. Since that victory, a battle with injuries prevented this opportunity at a title fight. The long layoff could be an issue, but Pennington’s ability to take punishment and her solid cardio makes this an enticing fight.

Without further ado, let’s get to the Predictions!

UFC 224 PPV Main Card (10 p.m. ET):

135 lbs.: UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes vs. Raquel Pennington – I believe Pennington has the ability to withstand punishment and dish it, but can she do it for over three rounds? And she’s been out for nearly two years, so is she’s coming into this 100% healthy? Those are two tough questions I’m not willing to take a chance on. So with that, I have Nunes retaining for the fourth consecutive time and winning this via TKO.

185 lbs.: Ronaldo Souza vs. Kelvin Gastelum – An excellent fight and it really comes down to two things for me. Can Jacare take a punch? With Gastelum’s speed advantage and Souza getting up there in age, it’s going to take a few strikes to even get in grappling range. The other thing is, can Gastelum overcome Jacare’s size and thwart his takedown attempts. Obviously on the feet, Gastelum holds the advantage, but he’s a small Middleweight who’s shown vulnerability to getting taken down.

In a tough fight to call, I’ll go with the seasoned veteran. Jacare has fought the best and has only lost 3 times since 2008. Two close decision losses to former UFC Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold and two-time title challenger Yoel Romero. And a stoppage defeat to current UFC Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker. So, he’s only lost to the best of the best. And I’m not saying Gastelum is bad, but he’s not in the same class yet as those opponents. So with that, I have Souza winning this via his grappling, eventually submitting Gastelum.

115 lbs.: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Cooper – With Dern not even coming close to making weight, this fight got a little closer to even for me. However, I still believe Dern’s grappling will be the x-factor here. Cooper might try and keep this upright, but it only takes one grappling exchange for this to get dicey for her. So with that, I have Cooper winning via submission.

135 lbs.: John Lineker vs. Brian Kelleher – I’ll tell you what, this is going to be an exciting fight. Kelleher called out Lineker and he got him. With legit knockout power in his hands, Lineker is one of the more feared Bantamweights on the roster. However, I believe that Kelleher is making a smart move here to ask for this fight. It’s no secret that since the T.J. Dillashaw fight, which saw Lineker’s jaw get broken, he’s been fighting a little more tentatively. Before, he was a pressure striker who lived for the brawl. Now, he avoids the brawl. So with that, I believe that Kelleher is going to surprise and shock the Brazilian fans as he outpoints Lineker en route to a decision victory.

185 lbs.: Vitor Belfort vs. Lyoto Machida – Two Brazilian legends whom’s gas tanks are nearly, if not empty, fight for legacy at this point. In my opinion though, it’s Machida who still has shown to have something in the gas tank. And its Machida who still presents issues for anyone with his karate style. So with that, I have Machida winning this via late stoppage.

UFC 224 “Prelims” on FX (8 p.m. ET):

185 lbs.: Cezar Ferreira vs. Karl Roberson – I’m unsure of Roberson’s takedown defense, but if it holds up early, I have no doubt he’ll find Ferreira’s chin. Even if doesn’t hold up, Ferreira has been hurt before late ala Nate Marquardt. So with that, I’ll take my chances and predict that Roberson wins via knockout.

265 lbs.: Junior Albini vs. Aleksei Oliynyk – Honestly, this one won’t end long. Either Albini batters Oliynyk on the feet en route to a stoppage or Oliynyk takes down Albini and submits him. I’ll take the latter. So with that, I’ve got Oliynyk via submission.

155 lbs.: Nick Hein vs. Davi Ramos – I’ve got Hein in this bout. He’s been taken down only once in his UFC tenure thus far. He’s a formidable striker and given Ramos relies solely on his grappling and BJJ, Hein’s ability to stay upright neutralizes that. So with that, I’ve got Hein via decision.

170 lbs.: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Sean Strickland – Both are solid strikers, but it’s dos Santos who’s dynamic and throws in volume. However, Strickland has some wrestling chops he can use to turn the tide in this fight. In a 50/50 fight, I’d like to believe that dos Santos win this on his volume striking. So with that, I have dos Santos via decision.

UFC 224 “Prelims” on Fight Pass (6:15 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Warlley Alves vs. Sultan Aliev – This should be all Alves, but his cardio issues could present an issue the later this fight goes. Luckily for Alves, Aliev’s game is pretty simple to read. He relies heavily on takedowns and top control to win fights. The problem with that is, Alves has a nasty guillotine choke awaiting those who attempt to take him down. Just ask Colby Covington. So with that, I have Alves winning this via submission.

185 lbs.: Jack Hermansson vs. Thales Leites – For whatever reason, Hermansson can’t get the job done in Brazil, as his two defeats in the UFC have come here. Make it three, as the veteran and former title challenger Leites puts forth an excellent effort in front of his native Brazilian fans. So with that, I have Leites using out-grappling Hermansson en route to a decision victory.

170 lbs.: Ramazan Emeev vs. Alberto Mina – The “Soldier of God” Mina hasn’t fought in nearly two years and this will be by far his toughest test date. Emeev comes into this bout a winner of thirteen of his last fourteen fights. Despite a dull and lackluster debut victory over Sam Alvey, Emeev is capable of dominating foes with his wrestling. And he’ll do just that, as I see Emeev use his superior wrestling and top control en route to a decision victory.

185 lbs.: Markus Perez vs. James Bochnovic – While Bochnovic is absolutely massive for the weight, the unknown about his cardio and a twenty pound drop from Light Heavyweight is a red flag for me. Meanwhile, Perez showed in his UFC debut an ability to take punishment and a perseverance to win. Given he fought an athletic and tough foe in Eryk Anders, Bochnovic is certainly a step down in competition. So with that, I have Perez winning this via submission sometime in the later rounds.
UFC Fight Night 128: Barboza vs. Lee Predictions

April 21, 2018

After an exciting fight night in Glendale, Arizona last week, the UFC is back in action with a loaded card. Playing host to the event is a familiar place, but one in which hasn’t hosted an event in four years. That would be Atlantic City, New Jersey. A once hotbed for MMA, has fizzled out over the years as the boardwalk has seen hotels and businesses shut down.

Anyways, headlining the event are a pair of Lightweight contenders in Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Barboza, heads into this fight a winner of three of his last four fights. Barboza’s most recent fight however resulted in a loss. It wasn’t just any loss though, as he was dominated from start to finish by now Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Nothing to be ashamed of, as Nurmagomedov has done the same, if not worse to other foes.

As for Lee, the young phenom took a huge leap in his last fight, fighting Tony Ferguson for the Interim Lightweight Championship. Unfortunately for Lee, a staph infection and a fight above his pay grade led to third round submission defeat. Prior to the defeat, Lee had won nine of his last ten fight and was riding into the Interim Lightweight Championship on a five-fight win streak.

The fight itself should be a doozie. Anyways, enough talkie, Prediction time!

UFC Fight Night 128 Main Card on FOX Sports 1 (10 p.m. ET):

157 lbs.: Edson Barboza vs. Kevin Lee – This is an excellent fight and I believe it goes either two ways. One, especially given that he missed weight, Lee goes for the kill early. Using his wrestling advantage, Lee takes down Barboza and while maintaining top control, batters Barboza with a heavy dose of ground-and-pound. In the second round, Lee repeats, but looks for the submission victory.

Two, Barboza weathers the early storm like he did against Khabib Nurmagomedov and starts to take over in the later rounds. Given Lee missed weight, his already unknown cardio will cause him to fade in the championship rounds. Barboza will then start to batter Lee’s legs, limiting his movement and ability to take Barboza down. In the fifth round, a tired and limping Lee will be put away by Barboza, as his leg shuts down from the punishment endured.

In my opinion, I’m going with the latter. I believe Barboza will outlast Lee’s early onslaught and win in a classic via fifth round TKO.

145 lbs.: Frankie Edgar vs. Cub Swanson II – While I’m wary that Edgar is taking this fight too quick after his first knockout defeat, this is simply still a bad matchup for Swanson. It’s even worse when you think about how motivated Frankie Edgar is to erase his last fight against Brian Ortega. And while people might signify that knockout defeat as the decline of Edgar, I chalk it up to a rising star landing a perfectly timed punch. Yes, the amount of punishment Edgar has taken over his career probably can be attributed to it, but a perfectly placed punch can knockout ANYONE!

Anyways, Edgar is fighting in his backyard of New Jersey and coming off that surprising knockout defeat, he’s going to find a way to get that sour taste out of his mouth and reign supreme in front of his family, friends and fans. A heavy dose of wrestling should be in order by Edgar, but something tells me that he’s going to not grind out a victory, but look for the finish. So with that, I have Edgar via submission.

265 lbs.: Chase Sherman vs. Justin Willis – Sherman has transformed from a slobber knocker striker to a more technical striker. However, his chin still last only about two rounds. So with that, I have the rising AKA product Justin Willis winning via third round knockout.

185 lbs.: David Branch vs. Thiago Santos – David Branch has come a long way from the boring grappler he was in his first UFC stint. He added a formidable striking game to his abilities, which saw him dominate foes in the World Series of Fighting. However, his inability to take damage has stayed the same from his first UFC stint. Given Thiago Santos is the definition of dishing out damage, I suspect this to be a short night for Branch. So with that, I have Santos winning his fifth consecutive fight via TKO.

135 lbs.: Brett Johns vs. Aljamain Sterling – This is a tough fight to call, but ultimately I believe that Aljamain Sterling will get the nod. Johns is the better boxer and he’s an excellent submission artist, but I’m not completely sold on his wrestling. On the other hand, Sterling is the complete package in my opinion. He’s a solid wrestling, who’s got striking abilities that are highlighted by his funky kicks. In what should be a close fight, I believe a combination of Sterling’s volume striking and the crowd behind him will get him the nod.

155 lbs.: Dan Hooker vs. Jim Miller – I’m calling upset here. Miller is fighting in his backyard and Hooker, while an excellent striker, has never fought someone as gritty as Miller. The veteran Miller has lost three fights in a row and is undoubtedly at the tail end of his career. However, this is a good matchup for Miller in my opinion. Hooker has struggled against grapplers and Miller is an excellent one.

If Miller can push Hooker against the cage and work in takedowns, then this fight is going to be a breeze. If Hooker can defend, on the feet, I’m not sure Miller can compete. Either way, this fight reminds me of Matt Brown vs. Stephen Thompson. So with that, I’ve Jim Miller winning via decision and perhaps retiring upon doing such.

UFC Fight Night 128 Prelims Card on FOX Sports 1 (8 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Alex Garcia vs. Ryan LaFlare – This is a tough fight to call. Is LaFlare on the decline? Has Garcia finally realized his potential? I’m going to say, LaFlare will aging, still can be a top ten welterweight. He’s got the wrestling abilities and very active striking game, that comes in volume. Garcia on the hand has won two of his last three fights, both via finish. A closely contested decision defeat to Tim Means is sandwiched between those victories.

As for a prediction, I’ve got LaFlare. I believe Garcia will look good early, as LaFlare will have to endure a few power shots. Then, in the middle of the second round, Garcia will fade and LaFlare’s volume striking mixed in which takedowns will wear down Garcia. In the end, LaFlare will get the nod, winning via unanimous decision.

135 lbs.: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Ricky Simon – No clue… Dvalishvili via decision.

170 lbs.: Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Luan Chagas – This is going to be a slugfest for however long it last. My prediction is that it’s Bahadurazada who will outlast Chagas, winning via knockout.

205 lbs.: Corey Anderson vs. Patrick Cummins – Anderson has lost two fights in a row, as well as three of his last four. Cummins on the other hand, is on the complete opposite trajectory, winning two fights in a row. However, it’s Anderson whom I’m picking. The TUF 19 winner, while “chinny”, is one the more well rounded Light Heavyweights in the division. Anderson has the ability of out-striking or grinding out foes over three rounds. Cummins simply doesn’t. Don’t get me wrong, Cummins is talented, but only at wrestling. He is a terrible striker, has a weak chin and has cardio issues.

As for my prediction, I believe Anderson will hurt Cummins early and finish him via TKO in the first round. If Cummins somehow survives early, the later the fight goes, the easier it will be to finish the fading standout wrestler.

UFC Fight Night 128 Prelims Card on Fight Pass (7:30 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Tony Martin vs. Keita Nakamura – While Tony Martin is the favorite, it’s Nakamura who I’m picking. The Japanese veteran is often overlooked, but his crafty grappling and striking abilities are underrated. And while Martin is a talent at 170, he often puts himself in dangerous positions. In what should be a close fight, a boneheaded blunder like will cost Martin the fight. So with that, I have Nakamura via decision.
UFC on Fox 29: Poirier vs Gaethje Predictions

April 14, 2018

After a wild last weekend, in which whatever could go wrong to a stacked UFC 223 card went wrong, the UFC is right back at for an exciting card on big Fox! Headlining the event is a pair of Lightweight contenders in Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Poirier enters this fight on a productive 2017, which saw him defeat Jim Miller and Anthony Pettis. Sandwiched between those wins is also a no contest against Eddie Alvarez, which was a wild fight and one that Poirier was winning up until the illegal knee that halted the fight. As the Lightweight slugger Gaethje, he most recently suffered his first defeat at the hands of the aforementioned Eddie Alvarez. The fight itself was a contender for Fight of the Year, as the two traded back-and-forth for two plus rounds. A knee in the clinch from Eddie Alvarez however would end it, as Gaethje’s seemingly invincible chin finally gave way to a knockout. Make no mistake about it though, despite suffering his first career defeat, Gaethje is still right there in the Lightweight title picture. As for this fight, expect pure chaos and don’t blink!

Anyways, let’s get to the Predictions.

UFC on FOX 29 Main Card (8 p.m. ET):

155 lbs.: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje – This is such a wild fight and I’m not sure it’s even worth it to break down. Both men come to fight and will go toe-to-toe with each other. Now, Poirier is more technical in his striking, but often gets involved in brawls. Gaethje lives for the brawl and his live by the sword, die by the sword style has gotten far in his career. Will it work here? I think yes.

Poirier has wrongfully been dubbed “chinny”, as two of his last loses have come via knockout. That’s further from the truth, as those knockouts and the times he’s been rocked have been a direct result of being lured in to either due to frustration or to get into a brawl. And in a brawl, it’s Gaethje who will put out Poireir’s lights. So with that, I have Gaethje via KO.

170 lbs.: Carlos Condit vs. Alex Oliveira – Look, Condit is rightfully an underdog in this fight even though Oliveira is stepping in on short notice. However, I feel like Oliveira’s aggressive striking will bring out the best in Carlos Condit. When in danger and getting tagged, a switch goes off in Condit. We’ve seen it countless times, most notably against Robbie Lawler. Now, Condit has never been finished and has a granite chin. Oliveira on the hand can absolutely dish it out for two rounds, but once that third rolls around he faded. If Condit can survive, I believe he’ll weather the storm and put away the Brazilian “Cowboy” via TKO.

185 lbs.: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori – I think Vettori is actually a pretty good Middleweight, but Adesanya is simply something special. And unless Vettori has takedowns up his sleeve, I believe Adesanya will systematically pick Vettori apart on the feet and eventually put him away. Perhaps maybe via a spinning back kick? Either way, Adesanya Ive got Adesanya in this one via knockout.

115 lbs.: Michelle Waterson vs. Cortney Casey – This is a tough one to call. On one hand, Casey is perhaps the feistiest Stawweight in the division. No matter if the fight is standing or if she’s on her back, she’s always working and landing strikes. Then you got Waterson, who’s a dynamic striker and an excellent grappler. If she wants to win this fight, she’s got to keep distance with Casey on the feet and use kicks to slowly chop her down. Will that happen, maybe. Do I think it happens? No.

I believe a combination of Casey’s output on the feet, non-stop three round pace and granite chin will easily lead her to a late stoppage victory.

UFC on FOX 29 Prelims (6 p.m. ET):

185 lbs.: Tim Boetsch vs. Antonio Carlos Junior – It seems that Carlos Junior is finally tapping into his true potential. He’s won four consecutive fights, three of which came via rear-naked choke submission victories. Up next, the veteran test. That said veteran comes in the form of the “Barbarian” Tim Boetsch. Winner of three of his last four fights, Boetsch is a tough out for anyone. With solid wrestling and legit knockout power, Boetsch can grind out opponents or simply knock them out.

As for a prediction, I have Boetsch. While Carlos Junior is an excellent grappler, his striking abilities are less to be desired. Now, I don’t doubt he will get Boetsch to the ground at some point, but I also see him expending his cardio in order to do so. Once Boetsch survives the initial onslaught, I see him take over and winning via late TKO.

170 lbs.: Muslim Salikhov vs. Ricky Rainey – Rainey is better than given credit for, but Salikhov is a legit talent on the feet. Given Rainey is mainly a striker and a technical one at that, he could outpoint the Salikhov on the feet. However, I find that unlikely and in fact, I think Rainey being technical will allow Salikhov to throw all sorts of unorthodox arsenal. So with that, I believe Salikhov eventually finds Rainey’s chin and wins this via knockout.

125 lbs.: Wilson Reis vs. John Moraga – Despite Moraga’s recent resurgence, I have to interject that it hasn’t been against the stiffest of competition. The last victory over Magomed Bibulatov definitely is noteworthy, but Bibulatov while talented, has never fought any real competition in his career up until Moraga. On the other hand, Reis has fought Champion Demetrius Johnson and seemingly number one contender Henry Cejudo in his last two fights. Prior to that, Reis had won three straight. So with that, I have Reis grappling his way to a decision victory.

185 lbs.: Krzysztof Jotko vs. Brad Tavares – Tavares is an excellent fighter, with good cardio and the ability to grind out wins. He is however very hesitant on the feet, which is partly due to his technical approach. In this particular fight, I just don’t see his output being enough to get the nod. Jotko, despite being on two-fight skid is a very well rounded fighter who’s pace breaks fighters. He on the other hand is not hesitant on the feet and strikes in volume. Over the course of three rounds, I see Jotko’s out-landing and mixing in takedowns to edge out Tavares via decision.

UFC on FOX 29 Prelims on Fight Pass (3:30 p.m. ET):

170 lbs.: Gilbert Burns vs. Dan Moret – Brutal debut fight for Moret… Burns via submission.

125 lbs.: Shana Dobson vs. Lauren Mueller – No clue… Mueller via decision.

170 lbs.: Dhiego Lima vs. Yushin Okami – This is a toss up. Lima is a skilled striker, who just seems to fold under the bright lights of the octagon. With a 1-4 UFC record, this being Lima’s second stint, a win is a must if he wants to stay around. As for his combatant Okami, let’s be honest, he’s a shell of himself. However, Okami is still a very good wrestler and capable of grinding out victories over three rounds. As for this fight,I edge Okami. He’s massive for the weight class and will obviously hold a sizable strength advantage against Lima, who has brutal takedown defense. So with that, I have Okami via decision.

265 lbs.: Arjan Bhullar vs. Adam Wieczorek – I like Wieczorek’s skill set and I think he has a place in the Heavyweight division, but the wrestling grinder that is Bhullar is going be too much. So with that, Bhullar via decision.

135 lbs.: Matthew Lopez vs. Alejandro Perez – I must say I’ve completely underestimated Perez, and again I will. Not because he’s not talented, but I see exceptional talent in Matthew Lopez. A top notch wrestler, who throws absolute bombs in top control, Lopez is seemingly a striking game away from being the complete package. And after fighting a perennial top five Bantamweight Raphael Assuncao in his last fight, only four fights into his UFC tenure, he’s already got a taste of what it takes to be a contender. Fighting in his home state Arizona is also a boost. So with that, I have Lopez via decision.

135 lbs.: Luke Sanders vs. Patrick Williams – Sanders hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, but this seems like perfect matchup to get back in the win column. Williams is a one round fighter, who’s got legit explosiveness and power to end a fight. However, if you survive the first, all his abilities dissipate and iffy chin often gets connected with. So with that, I have Sanders via second round KO.
UFC 223: Nurmagomedov vs. Iaquinta Predictions

April 7, 2018

A week ago, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Interim Lightweight Champion Tony Ferguson were set to clash in one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. It was the fourth time the pair were booked to fight, as a litany of injuries and a bad weight cut cancelled the other three bookings. However, the black cloud hovering over this matchup again struck. During media obligations, Ferguson went to greet someone and tripped over some wires. A complete freak accident, which saw Ferguson completely tear a ligament off his knee. And the craziest part of the news regarding Ferguson’s injury, is that it all came to light on April Fools day. Go figure…

With a replacement needed, Featherweight Champion Max Holloway answered the call. Despite nursing an ankle injury that forced him out of UFC 222 and conceivably not in fight shape, somehow and someway the UFC allowed Holloway to give it a go. I understand selling PPV’s is important and this is an excellent matchup (When Healthy), but a wounded Holloway on six days notice against Nurmagomedov just seemed like a mismatch.

When you thought UFC 223 couldn’t get anymore shaken up, enter Conor McGregor. In response to an altercation between Nurmagomedov and teammate Artem Lobov, McGregor and his crew stormed the Barclays Center. McGregor and his crew would make their way to a bus escorting fighters including Nurmagomedov back to their hotel. What McGregor did next, was unthinkable. He picked up a dolly and threw it at the bus window, shattering it. Inside the bus, the shattered glass would cut Lightweight Michael Chiesa and shrapnel would enter Flyweight Ray Borg eyes. Due to the incident and the unfortunate injuries sustained to both, they were forced off the card, thus scrapping two fights from UFC 223. Also because of his presence with McGregor in the chaos, Lobov was removed from the card, scrapping a third fight.

If that wasn’t enough, the following day (Weigh-in), the New York State Athletic Commission deemed Max Holloway unfit to compete. I could of told you, the amount of weight on short notice wasn’t safe. Throw that in with an ankle injury that he was awaiting confirmation on either rest or surgery on, and this just seemed like a terrible idea. So with Nurmagomedov awaiting his third opponent in six days, the UFC targeted former Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis. That fell through quickly, as Pettis wanted more money and the UFC denied. Next up was Paul Felder who made Championship weight (155 lbs’). However the NYSAC wouldn’t allow Felder the fight, due to him being unranked. Absolutely ridiculous, but hey, the ranking itself are ridiculous.

Then, the only New Yorker on the card stepped to the plate. The pride of Long Island, “Ragin” Al Iaquinta. The disciple of former Welterweight Champion Matt Serra, who shocked the world eleven years to the date against George St. Pierre. Through all the madness, you couldn’t of scripted this any better for Iaquinta. To think, injuries and contract issues have forced Iaquinta to only one fight in three years. His second, is now for the Lightweight Championship (Weighed in at 155.2, but the UFC will recognize him as the Champion).

Anyways, to the Predictions!

UFC 223 Main Card (10 p.m. ET):

155 LBS.: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Al Iaquinta – This is such a bizarre fight. Iaquinta has fought only once in three years, as injuries and a contract dispute caused him to become a real estate agent. Now, he’s fighting for the Lightweight Championship due to the events leading up to this card. This is a low risk, high reward opportunity for the one they call “Ragin Al”.

However, I’ve got Nurmagomedov winning this fight. While I believe Iaquinta is a tougher foe than first choices Anthony Pettis and Paul Felder, there’s not way around the beast that is Nurmagomedov. The Dagestan brute is among the best grapplers in UFC history, displaying dominance in not just every fight, but every round. In fact, I’m not sure he’s even loss a round in his career…

Again, love Iaquinta for stepping up, but Nurmagomedov via submission.

115 lbs.: UFC Strawweight Champion Rose Namajunas vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk – The first encounter, I totally misjudged Namajunas. I knew her abilities, but I firmly believed her only route to victory would be on the ground via submission. However, she shoved crow right in my mouth when she knocked out up Jedrzejczyk on the feet.

However, my opinion on the victor hasn’t changed despite those results. I believe Jedrzejczyk is the better striker and that in the first fight, the bad weight cut definitely played a role in Jedrzejczyk’s demise. That’s not taking anything away from Namajunas though, as she could very well repeat with that left hook knockout. Hell, she can even change levels, grapple and submit Jedrzejczyk.

I don’t see that happening though, as Jedrzejczyk is going to rise from the ashes and once again become the dominant force in the Strawweight division. She’s going to be better defensively, with better head movement and footwork. Jedrzejczyk is going to use her vintage volume striking to systematically break down Namajunas over five rounds. In the end, Jedrzejczyk will get the judges nod and force a trilogy match.

145 lbs.: Calvin Kattar vs. Renato Moicano – This is an excellent fight and while I’m somewhat on the fence with my prediction, I’ll side with Kattar. I believe his power will be the difference here, causing Moicano to be more hesitant than usual. Kattar is an excellent boxer, has solid head movement, a granite chin and has knockout power. Moicano, more or less has similar abilities on the feet, but he features hard leg kicks in his striking attack. Something which could be the difference in this fight. Moicano is also an excellent grappler, so Kattar will need to keep distance and avoid am grappling exchanges.

In my opinion, this fight should go all three rounds and probably has fight of the night written all over it. However, I feel Kattar’s movement and power will be the deciding factor of the feet en route to a decision victory.

145 lbs.: Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Kyle Bochniak – Due to all the scrapped fights, the once curtain jerker, now entered the PPV portion of the card. That’s more so due Magomedsharipov, who is one of the most skilled prospects in the UFC. This is simply a showcase fight, that now will have a bigger audience witness a future contender in the Featherweight division. So with that, I have Magomedsharipov via submission.

155 lbs.: Joe Lauzon vs. Chris Gruetzemacher – Considering Gruetzemacher has been submitted in his last two fights, this seems like he’s being sacrificed to one of the best submission artist in the UFC. Yea, that’s what’s going on. Lauzon via submission.

UFC 223 Prelims On FOX Sports 1 (8 p.m. ET):

115 lbs.: Felice Herrig vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz – I’m 50/50 on this fight. On one hand, I can see Herrig win this if she implements a bully type strategy. She needs to put Kowalkiewicz’s back against the cage and grind on her. Mix in takedowns and some dirty boxing. However, if Herrig chooses to keep this bout in open space on the feet, then she’s going to get technically picked apart by the better striker in Kowalkiewicz.

In my opinion, I believe Herrig has momentum and newfound confidence heading into this fight. With four straight wins, she’s closing in on a title shot. With that in mind, I see her winning by any means necessary. So with that, I have Herrig winning via decision.

125 lbs.: Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Bec Rawlings – Ehh, I’ve got Evans-Smith in this one. Rawlings, loser of three straight is moving up ten pounds to try to steer the ship back on course. Meanwhile, Evans-Smith is moving down 10 pounds to erase her two fight losing streak. Given AES should have a sizable strength advantage and she’s has a heavy wrestling base, I believe she should have no issues winning this fight via decision.

115 lbs.: Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Evan Dunham – At first, I was all over OAM in this fight. Then, I realized that OAM’s strength’s heavily rely on his ability to get this fight on the mat. Dunham though, has only been taken down once in the last eight fights. In other words, Dunham has solid takedown defense.

On the feet, while improving, OAM has nothing for Dunham. The Oregon native features a volume based striking attack, with a fifteen minute pace that breaks fighters. Now, I don’t see Dunham breaking OAM, but I see him thoroughly out matching him on the feet en route to a decision victory.

205 lbs.: Devin Clark vs. Michael Rodriguez – Despite being an undersized Light Heavyweight, I favor Clark in this fight. His athleticism and wrestling abilities I believe will neutralize the scary striker Rodriguez. However, if Rodriguez can keep this one on the feet, a 4′ inch height and 7′ inch reach advantage could be problematic. Then again, Rodriguez hasn’t fought anyone in his young career. I mean, his last four fight come against opponents who are a combined 15-20. So with that, I have Clark via late TKO.