UFC Vegas 54: Blachowicz vs. Rakic DraftKings Spreadsheet

Best Plays

9k Range

Nick Maximov ($9,300) – The highest salaried fighter on the card, Maximov is well worth the price. A wrestler to the core, in two UFC fights, Maximov has landed fifteen takedowns and roughly 18 minutes of control times. Scoring 123.6 points in his most recent fight, Maximov offers a solid ceiling.

Davey Grant ($9,100) – Never would I expect that Grant, who is on a two-fight skid, would be the second highest salaried fighter. However, I understand. Having improved upon his striking abilities, Grant has become a legitimate threat on the feet. One who in his last two wins, has won by knockout. Given Smolka has been finished in his last three losses, all in the first round, there is a potential Grant could be adding 90 points upon whatever else he accumulates.

8k Range

Ion Cutelaba ($8,900) – Anytime Cutelaba enters the octagon, there is certain risk. Known to be wild, sometimes Cutelaba can get himself into trouble. However, with knockout power and wrestling, he has the ability to produce big-time points. Averaging 110 in victory, with a high of 131.3, only backs that up. Throw in the 17 combined takedowns landed in the last two fights, and fantasy-wise, it’s hard not to like Cutelaba in this spot.

Manuel Torres ($8,300) – A known finisher, who has won eleven of his twelve victories via first round stoppage, Torres brings immense value at this price. While he too has been stopped twice, both times have come via submission. Frank Camacho, despite being a grappler, has only won two fights via submission. Due to his willingness to trade hands, Camacho has been stopped in seven of his nine losses, five of which have been via knockout.

Andrea Lee ($8,200) – Despite facing a tough opponent, Lee is the type of workhorse you can get behind. Always active, Lee has put up a respectable average of 91.3 points in victory. Currently on a two-fight win streak, in which she has put up scores of 103.8 and 115.5, Lee is a good bargain at this price. Especially when you consider she puts up an average of 56.7 points in defeat, which is the best on the slate.

7k and Under Range

Alan Patrick ($7,800) – Never would I have thought, I’d be saying Patrick was a good play in 2022. However, here I am backing him. Despite not winning a fight since February of 2018, Patrick has the style and right opponent to rack up point. A wrestler, Patrick will spam takedowns all fight long. Having put up over 100 points in three of his five UFC victories, including a 121.2 in a nine takedown effort, Patrick has a legitimate shot at repeating that.

Amanda Ribas ($7,600) – Moving back up to Flyweight, Ribas is tasked with fighting Katlyn Chookagian. A former title challenger and currently the division’s number one ranked fighter. However, despite the underdog tag, Ribas is the more well rounded fighter of the two. She also doesn’t have to worry about being stopped, as Chookagian is a point fighter with very little in terms of power. With the third highest career points average on the slate and a healthy average of 93 points in victory, Ribas is solid value at 7.6k.

Jan Blachowicz ($7,500) – Despite losing his title in his first defeat since 2019, Blachowicz carries excellent value at 7.5k. With knockout power and some decent wrestling abilities, there is a reason why he became champion. Averaging 93.7 points in victory, and with several twenty-five minute fights under his belt, Blachowicz may very well be one of the more popular picks

Andre Petroski ($6,900) – In a wrestler’s delight match, if you think Petroski can outlast Maximov, then he is a steal as the lowest salaried fighter on the slate. Averaging a card’s best 111.9 points, Petroski has in two fights, utilized his wrestling to the tune of eight takedowns and over 17 minutes of control time. With power on the feet, it will be interesting to see if he can hold off Maximov and keep his questionable cardio in check.

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Fades

Aleksandar Rakic ($8,700) – It’s hard to fade a fighter that is 6-1 in the UFC and in the main event, but Rakic can be a mixed bag. While the high’s are unequivocally apart of the optimal lineup, the low’s are problematic. Averaging a respectable 99.4 in victory, Rakic has eclipsed 100 fantasy points three times. Scoring an absurd 114.8, 125.8 and 150.6, you’d call me crazy for fading Rakic. However, it’s not been all good. In Rakic’s three other wins, he scored 99, 54.6 and most recently, 51.8. Proceed with caution.

Katlyn Chookagian ($8,600) – Never one to put up points, in victory, Chookagian averages a card’s worst 74.3 points. At 8.6k and against a tough opponent, I don’t think it’s feasible to invest much in the former title challenger. Unless your’e ok with less than 83 points, which has occurred in six of her last seven wins.

Virna Jandiroba ($8,500) – As much as I like Jandiroba’s skillset, I’m having a hard time justifying paying up for her against Angela Hill. A live dog, who has been on the misfortunate side of four split decision losses during her UFC tenure. If anything is certain, if Jandiroba can’t get this fight to the mat, Hill is going to land at will on the Brazilian.

Michael Johnson ($8,400) – Can he knock out Alan Patrick. Yes. Especially given that Patrick has questionable durability. However, with four straight losses and nine in the last twelve fights, Johnson has been one of the most unreliable fighters in UFC history. More often that not, Johnson has seen himself winning a fight, and then abruptly losing. A story of that has been re-written over and over. At 8.4k, I just don’t see how I can justifiable even trust Johnson. Even if no one picks him.