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UFC Vegas 54: Preliminary Card Best Bets
, Viviane Araujo (10-3, 4-2 UFC)– 7 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 4 Sub)– Last 3 wins came via decision– 4-1 when landing 61 or more strikes – Only stopped […]
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| Viviane Araujo (10-3, 4-2 UFC) – 7 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 4 Sub) – Last 3 wins came via decision – 4-1 when landing 61 or more strikes – Only stopped once via T/KO – 0-2 when absorbing 98 or more strikes |
| Andrea Lee (13-5, 5-3 UFC) – 8 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 5 Sub) – Last 2 wins via stoppage – 3-2 when landing 73 or more strikes – Only Stopped once via submission – 3 of 5 losses via split decision – 1-3 when absorbing 61 or more strikes |
| Viviane Araujo (+100) vs. Andrea Lee (-120) Best Bet Fight Goes the Distance (-280) Viviane Araujo’s last five fights have gone the distance, while Lee fought in six straight decisions prior to rattling off back-to-back stoppage victories. With both women only suffering one stoppage defeat, I’d say it’s unlikely this one ends inside the distance. |
| Michael Johnson (19-17, 11-13 UFC) – 10 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 4 of the last 5 wins came via decision – 6-2 when landing one or more takedowns – Stopped in 11 of 17 losses (2 T/KO, 9 Sub) – 2-7 when taken down once or more |
| Alan Patrick (15-3, 5-3 UFC) – 6 victories via stoppage (4 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Last 4 wins came via decision – 4-0 when landing two or more takedowns – Stopped in 2 of 3 losses (2 T/KO) – 1-3 when absorbing 23 or more strikes |
| Michael Johnson (-145) vs. Alan Patrick (+125) Best Bet Alan Patrick wins by decision (+300) Since joining the UFC, Patrick has only one stopped one opponent – which came in his debut. Since then, all four of his victories have come via decision. While Michael Johnson is vulnerable to being stopped, he has been to a decision in four of his last six fights. With Patrick being 4-0 when landing two or more takedowns and Johnson 2-7 when taken down once or more, I like Patrick’s odds to grinding out a decision. |
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| Virna Jandiroba (17-3, 3-3 UFC) – 14 victories via stoppage (1 T/KO, 13 Sub) – Last 4 wins came via stoppage – 3-0 when attempting a submission – Never been stopped – 0-3 when absorbing 25 or more strikes |
| Angela Hill (13-11, 8-12 UFC) – 5 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO) – 5-4 when landing one or more takedowns – Only stopped twice via submission – Last 5 losses came via decision – Lost all four split decisions – 3-9 when taken down one or more times |
| Virna Jandiroba (-180) vs. Angela Hill (+155) Best Bet Fight Goes the Distance (-200) Despite Jandiroba’s dangerous submission abilities, I find it hard to see that she will submit Hill – who has been to the scorecards in six straight and seventeen of her twenty-four professional fights. Throw in the fact that Jandiroba has never been stopped, and my belief that this fight goes the distance is solidified. |
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| Tatsuro Taira (10-0, 0-0 UFC) – 8 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 5 Sub) – Opponents combined for a record of 111-64-15 – 9-0 as an Amateur |
| Carlos Candelario (8-1, 0-0 UFC) – 5 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 2 wins via decision – Opponents Combined for a record of 20-11-2 – 1-1 record since 2017 – Lone loss via split decision |
| Tatsuro Taira (-240) vs. Carlos Candelario (+195) Best Bet Tatsuro Taira moneyline (-240) At the end of the day, I’d rather take Taira straight up then chase a finish. Which is highly possible given Candelario’s porous takedown defense and suspect cardio. However, he’s never been finished before. So in that regard, I have to proceed with caution. |
| Nick Maximov (8-0, 2-0 UFC) – 5 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 3 victories have come via decision – Has Landed 15 Takedowns in 2 fights – 2-0 when landing 4 or more takedowns |
| Andre Petroski (7-1, 2-0 UFC) – All seven victories via stoppage (4 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Has won 2 straight – 2-0 when landing 4 or more takedowns – Stopped in lone defeat via TKO |
| Nick Maximov (-350) vs. Andre Petroski (+270) Best Bet Nick Maximov wins by decision (+120) In this matchup that features a pair of wrestlers, I’m imagining this fight being an absolute grind. While that may appear safe, I do have some fears that Petroski, who has been known to have some cardio issues, can succumb to something late. A highly possible scenario given that Petroski’s lone professional loss came via stoppage, as well as loss in an exhibition fight on the Ultimate Fighter. With that said, it might be worth sprinkling something on Maximov Round Three at +1000. |
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