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UFC Vegas 54: Main Card Best Bets
Jan Blachowicz (28-9, 11-6 UFC)– 17 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 9 Sub)– 2 of the last 3 wins came via stoppage– 4-1 when landing 71 or more strikes – […]
| Jan Blachowicz (28-9, 11-6 UFC) – 17 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 9 Sub) – 2 of the last 3 wins came via stoppage – 4-1 when landing 71 or more strikes – Stopped in 4 of 9 losses (2 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Stopped in last 2 losses – 1-5 when taken down one or more times |
| Aleksandar Rakic (14-2, 6-1 UFC) – 10 victories via stoppage (9 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via decision – 6-0 when absorbing less than 49 strikes – Stopped only once via submission – Decision loss was split |
| Jan Blachowicz (+130) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-150) Best Bet Jan Blachowicz moneyline (+130) One fight removed since losing his title, Blachowicz finds himself an underdog against a rising contender in Rakic. While both men are two of the divisions best, plus money on a former champion seems hard to pass up on. Especially considering Blachowicz holds an experience edge in fighting for twenty-five minutes. Throw in the fact that Rakic has seen the scorecards in five of his last seven fights, as well as Blachowicz winning his last four decisions – And I like the former champs chances. |
| Ryan Spann (19-7, 5-2 UFC) – 16 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO, 11 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via stoppage – 5-0 when landing 13 or more strikes – Stopped in 5 of 7 losses (3 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 3-2 when absorbing 17 or more strikes |
| Ion Cutelaba (16-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC) – 14 victories via stoppage (12 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via stoppage – 2-1-1 when landing four or more takedowns – Stopped in 5 of 6 losses (2 T/KO, 2 Sub, 1 DQ) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 0-2-1 when absorbing 44 or more strikes |
| Ryan Spann (+180) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-220) Best Bet Fight Won’t Start Round 3 (-250) In twenty-four professional fights, Cutelaba has only seen the scorecards three times. Oddly enough, two of those came in his most recent fight. Regardless of that, he’s been involved in nineteen fights that were stopped. Eighteen of those that came within the first two rounds. The same could be said about Spann, who has only seen the scorecards in five of his twenty-six fights. And of those twenty-one fights stopped, twenty have come within the first two rounds. I’m no mathematician, but I’d say there is a good chance this fight doesn’t go three rounds. |
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| Davey Grant (13-6, 4-5 UFC) – 11 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 8 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via stoppage – 3-2 when landing one or more takedowns – Stopped in 4 of 6 losses via Sub – Last 2 losses via decision – 1-3 when taken down one or more times |
| Louis Smolka (17-8, 8-8 UFC) – 15 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 7 Sub) – Last 8 wins came via stoppage – 6-0 when landing 59 or more strikes – Stopped in 4 of 8 losses (1 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 4-7 when opponent attempts one or more submissions |
| Davey Grant (-300) vs. Louis Smolka (+235) Best Bet Fight doesn’t go the Distance (-245) I’m pretty certain that this fight will avoid the scorecards. With Grant’s newfound striking abilities and Smolka’s submission threat, someone is bound to get stopped. Given the fact that Smolka hasn’t been to the scorecards in his last nine fights, there’s a good chance this fight ends inside the distance. |
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| Katlyn Chookagian (17-4, 10-4 UFC) – 3 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 10 wins came via decision – 8-0 when landing 68 or more strikes – Stopped in 2 of 4 losses (2 T/KO) – Last 2 losses via stoppage – 9-4 when absorbing 27 or more strikes |
| Amanda Ribas (8-1, 5-1 UFC) – 7 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 3 of the 4 wins came via decision – Won 5 of the last 6 – 4-0 when landing 21 or more strikes – Stopped in both losses via T/KO |
| Katlyn Chookagian (-180) vs. Amanda Ribas (+155) Best Bet Fight goes the distance (-225) While I was eyeballing Ribas to win by decision, it’s hard to count out Chookagian in most fights. Her high activity level, even despite missing 65% of the strikes she throws, helps sway the judges. With no finishing power to speak of, Chookagian is all but certain to go to the scorecards if she is to win. Given Ribas has seen the scorecards in three of the last four, with a Paige VanZant armbar victory being the lone stoppage win, I’d say this fight is likely to go to the scorecards. |
| Frank Camacho (22-9, 2-5 UFC) – 19 victories via stoppage (17 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 7 of the last 8 wins came via stoppage – 2-1 when landing 100 or more strikes – Stopped in 7 of 9 losses (5 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 1-3 when absorbing 59 or more strikes |
| Manuel Torres 12-2, 0-0 UFC) – 11 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO, 6 Sub) – All 11 stoppage victories in round one – Winner of 3 straight – Stopped in both defeats via sub – Only seen a round two once in 13 fights |
| Frank Camacho (+105) vs. Manuel Torres (-125) Best Bet Under 1 1/2 rounds (+120) While one could make the case this doesn’t go past round one, I’d rather the extra allotted time just in case. Camacho has seen three of the last four fights come under this mark, while Torres has only seen a round two once in fourteen fights. In other words, the stars are aligned for this one to end early. |
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| Jake Hadley (8-0, 0-0 UFC) – 6 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via stoppage – 4 first round stoppage victories |
| Allan Nascimento (18-6, 0-1 UFC) – 15 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 13 Sub) – 11 first round stoppage victories – Last 2 wins via submission – Never been stopped – Last 3 losses via split decision |
| Jake Hadley (-220) vs. Allan Nascimento (+180) Best Bet Hadley wins by decision (+110) While this fight should be a grappling affair and feature several submission attempts, I favor Hadley in prevailing. Seeing that Nascimento has never been stopped in twenty-four fights, I don’t see a reason to believe that Hadley will be the first to crack the Brazilian’s durability. |
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