The Welterweight division plays host to an intriguing fight between Ian Garry and Gabe Green. Looked upon as a future contender, Garry thus far, has lived up to the hype. Undefeated and with already two victories inside the octagon, Garry is beginning to climb the ladder. At 24 years old, time is on the Irishman’s side, but with another victory, he could find himself fast-tracked into fighting a top fifteen foe. Meanwhile, Green has rebounded nicely since dropping his UFC debut. Proving that a full camp is the difference, Green has rattled off back-to-back wins. With an opportunity to knock off a hyped young upstart, Green has a chance to create some buzz for himself.
This is going to be a fun fight, as both men have proven themselves to be solid strikers. Garry is far advanced above his age. Technical, precise and powerful on the feet, Garry can be a handful to deal with on the feet. Excellent in distance management, Garry has no issues picking apart opponents and chopping them down with leg kicks. Not many might know either, Garry has wrestling and grappling abilities that are up to par with his striking. He’s truly a complete package. However, Green will be his toughest task to date. An active striker, Green is more offensively based than defensively. Perhaps due to his toughness and iron chin, Green isn’t afraid to eat punches in order to get off his offense. Good with combinations and landing leg kicks, Green makes sure he gets off his offense. Oddly enough, Green is a dangerous submission threat. Although that part of his game is limited due to his willingness to strikes.
As for a prediction, I have Garry winning. While Green may be the more active of the two on the feet, his defensive woes will be his downfall in this fight. Absorbing 6.61 significant strikes per minute, Green is going to have to do a lot more work offensively to sway the judges. Something in which I just don’t see, as Garry is going land the more accurate and impactful strikes. So with that said, I predict that Garry will win this fight via TKO.
A pivotal fight in the Middleweight division takes place on the preliminary card, as Uriah Hall takes on Andre Muniz. Ranked ninth in the division, Hall returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022. Coming off a defeat to Sean Strickland, that saw a four-fight win streak halted, Hall will look to rebound over a fellow ranked fighter. Meanwhile, Muniz has taken the UFC by storm. A winner of eight straight, four of which have come inside the octagon, Muniz has quickly stamped his name as someone to keep an eye out for in the Middleweight division. With a victory here, assures that Muniz will be in the top ten.
After being dubbed the next Anderson Silva after competing on the Ultimate Fighter, Hall hasn’t quite lived up to those expectations. Of late though, he has resurged himself into the top ten of the division. A dynamic striker, who is quick and uses distance well, Hall is a threat to stand and trade with. Not exactly active on the feet, Hall resorts to being technical and precise with his strikes. With thirteen of seventeen wins coming via knockout, usually that approach leads to success. The opposite can be said about Muniz, who is a ground specialist. Not one to strike much, Muniz looks to get the fight to the mat. An area in which he has absolutely dominated, as fifteen of his wins have come via submission. Impressively enough, one of those submission victories was over Ronald Souza. A highly regard BJJ black belt who had never been submitted (broken arm) in his career up until that fight.
As for a prediction, I have Muniz winning. While Hall clearly has the edge on the feet, Muniz isn’t someone who will stick around long enough for Hall to pick him apart. Throughout Hall’s career, he has been relatively mediocre in fending off takedowns. In fact, despite his takedown defense being 65%, he has lost six of the nine fights he was taken down in. Make it seven, as I predict that Muniz takes Hall down and wins via submission.
A pair of ranked women in the Flyweight division lock horns, as Jessica Eyes takes on Maycee Barber. Hoping 2022 brings about better fortune, Eye will look to put a halt to a three-fight losing streak. A former Bellator Champion and UFC title contender, Eye is going to need to turn around things quickly. Otherwise, her time in the sun may have past. Meanwhile, Barber has rebounded nicely since her two-fight losing streak. Winning back-to-back fights, Barber finds herself in the top fifteen of the division. With Eye checking in at tenth in the division, a victory would assuredly catapult Barber into the top ten.
In fighting, often we see an old lion need to fend off a younger one. This fight is exactly that. Eye is a veteran of twelve years in the game, and has climbed to the top. With three straight losses though, her career may hang in the balance. An active striker, Eye looks to pepper opponents over the course of the fight. Not one to wrestle much, Eye is averaging roughly half a takedown per fifteen minutes. Perhaps a mistake throughout Eye’s career, is not developing that aspect of her game to compliment her already sharp striking abilities. On the other hand, Barber can wrestle and strike. Preferring to be on the feet, Barber has a rare blend of volume and power. The latter being a huge asset, given the division lacks fighters who can stop opponents via strikes.
As for a prediction, I have Barber winning. Eye is going through a tough stretch and is tasked to rejuvenate her career against a well rounded and rising talent in Barber. A fight that quite frankly is Barber’s to lose. Being the more active, accurate and powerful striker alone gives her an edge. Throw in her wrestling against Eye’s mediocre takedown defense and this should in essence be a dominant performance by Barber. However, given Eye’s toughness, I don’t see a finish. I see Barber winning via decision.
The Middleweight division plays host to a pivotal contest between Brad Tavares and Dricus Du Plessis. Returning to the octagon for the first time in 2022, Tavares comes into this bout on a two-fight win streak. Battling inactivity, this will be Tavares’ fifth fight in the last four years. Despite that, Tavares is still ranked eleventh and has an opportunity to crack the top ten with a victory. Meanwhile, Du Plessis has stormed into the UFC with back-to-back first round finishes. Seeing four fight cancellations momentarily halt his momentum, the South African comes into this fight still with a golden chance. One that would see his name among the top fifteen of the division with a victory.
After the debacle of UFC 273, that saw three separate fighters pull out against Du Plessis, the South African has to be chomping at the bit to get back in the octagon. Luckily too, it comes against a ranked foe. A former K-1 kickboxer, Du Plessis has showed off quickness, power, wrestling and good combinations. What he hasn’t showed off due to the nature of starching two opponents in round one, is his submission ability. Given nine of his sixteen wins have come by such, perhaps in due time we will see it come to light. Just not in this fight. Tavares has a solid base and is notably hard to takedown. A striker, Tavares doesn’t pack a punch as some might think. His striking is very fundamental, and backed by good cardio, has led the Hawaiian to outpointing many foes. In fact, Tavares is the all-time leader in the Middleweight division with twelve decision victories.
As for a prediction, I’m going with Du Plessis. While the South African came into the UFC with notably defensive issues, thus far, they have been relatively mitigated by the fact that he is stopping his foes inside the first round. Impressively I might add. The reason however why I like Du Plessis in this fight, is that despite his flaws, Tavares isn’t the one to capitalize on them. In his twenty UFC fights, the Hawaiian has only two knockout victories. In his last twelve fights, he has only landed three takedowns. With the concern level lowered, I believe Du Plessis will be able to get off his offense and eventually knock Tavares out.
The Women’s Bantamweight division features a clash between Jessica-Rose Clark and Julija Stoliarenko. Having dealt with several injuries, Clark has been limited to one fight per year, for the last three years. However, when Clark enters the octagon on Saturday, she will have made her second appearance of 2022. Despite faltering in her last fight, Clark has won two of the last three. A victory here would not only get Clark back on track, but reposition her an opportunity at a bigger name. Meanwhile, Stoliarenko comes into her fourth UFC appearance, still seeking her first victory inside the illustrious octagon. Undoubtedly feeling the pressure, Stoliarenko must win this fight. Otherwise, her less than two year tenure with the promotion will likely end.
This fight all comes down to if Clark can avoid grappling with Stoliarenko. As we’ve seen in the Lithuanian’s three fights, her route to victory is on the ground. With eight of her nine wins coming via submission, Stoliarenko isn’t someone you want to test your grappling abilities with. Seeing that Clark was submitted by armbar in her most recent fight gives me pause for concern. However, before evolving her wrestling abilities, she was known for her standup. That alone will get the job done in this fight, but Stoliarenko is known to pull guard. It would be upon Clark to avoid that situation and/or immediately get up if it does happen. In a fight that could end on a dime or see Clark outpoint Stoliarenko, I’m going with the latter. So with that said, give me Clark to win via decision.
– 12 victories via stoppage (7 T/KO, 5 Sub) – Last 2 wins via stoppage – Won 5 Straight & 17 of the last 18 – 5-0 when landing 22 or more strikes – One loss in six years
– Stopped once via T/KO
Mateusz Gamrot (20-1, 3-1 UFC)
– 12 victories via stoppage (7 T/KO, 5 Sub) – Last 3 wins via stoppage – Won 3 Straight – 3-1 when landing a takedown
– Never been Stopped – Lone defeat via split decision
Neil Magny (26-8, 19-7 UFC)
– 10 victories via stoppage (7 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 5 wins came via decision – Won 5 of the last 6 – 16-2 in decisions – 13-1 when landing 2 or more takedowns
– 6 of 8 losses via stoppage – 2-1 in the last 3 fights
Shavkat Rakhmonov (15-0, 3-0 UFC)
– All 15 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 7 Sub) – 9 first round finishes – 5 of the last 7 wins came via T/KO – 4-0 when landing 13 or more strikes
– Never lost
Josh Parisian (14-5, 1-2 UFC)
– 12 victories via stoppage (10 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 8 first round finishes – Won 7 of the last 9
– 3 of 5 losses via stoppage (2 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 2-2 in decisions – Lost 2 of the last 3
Alan Baudot (8-3, 0-2 UFC)
– All 8 wins came Inside the Distance (7 T/KO, 1 DQ) – 5 first round finishes
– 2 of 3 losses via stoppage (2 T/KO) – Only 2 wins in the last 4 years – Only 1 legitimate – Has 1 DQ as a result of opponent testing positive for Marijuana
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Thiago Moises (15-6, 4-4 UFC)
– 9 victories via stoppage (3 T/KO, 6 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via decision – 3-0 when landing 42 or more strikes
– 2 of 6 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Lost 2 straight – 2-4 when absorbing 44 or more strikes
Christos Giagos (19-9, 4-3 UFC)
– 11 victories via stoppage (7 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 6 of the 7 wins came via decision – Won 4 of the 6 – 5-1 when landing a takedown
– 6 of 9 losses via Stoppage (2 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 2-2 in the last 4 fights – 1-4 when being taken down
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Nathan Maness (14-1, 3-0 UFC)
– 8 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 4 of the last 5 wins came via stoppage – Won 4 straight – 3-0 when landing 21 or more strikes – 6-0 in decisions
– Lone defeat via T/KO
Umar Nurmagomedov (14-0, 2-0 UFC)
– 8 stoppage victories via stoppage (1 T/KO, 7 Sub) – Last 3 wins came via stoppage – 6-0 in decisions – 2-0 when landing a takedown
– Never lost
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Chris Curtis (28-8, 2-0 UFC)
– 17 victories via stoppage (16 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 7 of the last 8 wins came via stoppage – Won 7 straight – 2-0 when landing 21 or more strikes
– 2 of 8 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 11-6 in decisions
Rodolfo Vieira (8-1, 3-1 UFC)
– All 8 victories via stoppage (1 T/KO, 7 Sub) – Last 5 wins came via Sub – 3-0 when attempting a Sub
Carlos Ulberg (4-1, 1-1 UFC) – 2 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO) – 2 of the last 3 wins came via decision – 19-2 in Kickboxing
– Stopped via T/KO in lone defeat – Only five MMA fights
Tafon Nchukwi (6-2, 2-2 UFC) – All 4 stoppage victories via T/KO – Last 2 wins came via decision – 2-0 when landing 116 or more strikes
– Stopped once via T/KO – Only eight MMA fights
Nuerdanbieke Shayilan (37-10, 1-1 UFC) – 28 victories via stoppage (18 T/KO, 10 Sub) – 2 of the last 3 wins came via decision – Won 8 of the last 10 – 9-2 in decisions
– 8 of 10 losses came via stoppage (2 T/KO, 6 Sub) – Lost 2 of the last 5
TJ Brown (16-8, 2-2 UFC)
– 13 victories via stoppage (4 T/KO, 9 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via decision – 2-0 when landing 58 or more strikes
– 6 of 8 losses came via stoppage (3 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 2-2 in the last four – 1-1 when taken down
Raulian Paiva (21-4, 1-1 UFC) – 7 victories via stoppage (4 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via decision – 3-1 when landing 51 or more strikes
– 3 of 4 losses via stoppage (2 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 3-3 in the last 6 fights – 1-2 when landing less than 50 strikes
Sergey Morozov (17-5, 1-2 UFC) – 11 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via decision – Won 6 of the last 8
– 4 of 5 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 1-2 in the last 3 fights – 0-2 when opponent attempts a Sub
JP Buys (9-4, 0-2 UFC) – All 9 wins came inside the distance (3 T/KO, 5 Sub, 1 DQ) – Won 5 of the last 7
– 3 of 4 losses via stoppage (2 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Lost 2 straight
Cody Durden (12-4-1, 1-2-1 UFC) – 10 victories via stoppage ( 5 T/KO, 5 Sub) – 7 of the 8 wins came via stoppage
– 3 of 4 losses via stoppage (3 Sub) – Only one win since August of 2020 – 0-2 when opponent attempts a Sub
Brian Kelleher (24-13, 8-6 UFC) – 18 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 10 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via decision – Won 2 of the last 3 – 5-0 when attempting a Sub
– 8 of 13 losses via stoppage (1 T/KO, 7 Sub) – 3-3 in the last 6 fights – 3-3 when taken down
Mario Bautista (9-2, 3-2 UFC) – 6 victories via stoppage ( 3 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 3 of the last 4 wins came via decision – 2-0 when landing 72 or more strikes – 3-0 in decisions
– Stopped in both losses (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 3-2 in the last 5 fights
Vannesa Demopoulos (7-4, 1-1 UFC)
– 5 victories via stoppage (1 T/KO, 4 Sub) – Won 2 of the last 3 fights – Last 3 wins came via stoppage
– Never been Stopped – 2-3 in the last 5 fights
Jinh Yu Frey (11-6, 2-2 UFC) – 3 victories via stoppage ( 1 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Last 8 wins came via decision – Won 2 straight
– 3 of 6 losses via stoppage – 3-3 in last 6 fights – 2-2 as a Strawweight
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,500) – The highest priced fighter on the slate, the undefeated Nurmagomedov has yet to face any resistance thus far. Averaging 108.6 points, which is the highest on the slate, Nurmagomedov is a worthy play. The only concern is whether or not Nurmagomedov can topple his high of 111.7 points – which is the fourth most on the card.
Arman Tsarukyan ($9,100) – Perhaps the best play in the 9k range, Tsarukyan is someone you can count on. Averaging 104.12 points in victory, with a high of 125.7, Tsarukyan is evolving into one of the best Lightweight’s on the planet. One half of the main event, Tsarukyan will have an additional ten minutes to gain points – which given his complete skillset, sounds to me like a career high may be in play.
8kRange
Chris Curtis ($8,600) – When Curtis came to the UFC, as a Middleweight, I thought that he might get bullied inside the octagon. Instead, Curtis has been the bully. In two fights, Curtis is averaging 107.5 points – which is the third highest on the card. Against a talented BJJ black belt, with legitimate cardio issues, Curtis could be in store for yet another 100 point performance.
7k and Under Range
Tafon Nchukwi ($7,900) – Da Don is an intriguing play in the 7k range. Averaging 103.35 in victory, with a low of 100.9 points, Nchukwi has an excellent floor. Against a fellow striker in Carlos Ulberg, who is only five fights into his mixed martial arts career, Nchukwi has the blend of striking and wrestling to upend the Kiwi.
Rodolfo Vieira ($7,600) – When backing Vieira, you can expect him to score a finish or gas out. Averaging 82.1 points, which is the third highest in the 7k range, Vieira isn’t the worst play. It’s just one that will have you on edge until the fight is over.
Brian Kelleher ($7,500) – One of the statistically best fighters on the card, Kelleher is number one in most scored in victory at 125.9 and second in average points scored in victory at 108.5. At 7.5k, it’s hard to not take a long gander at the Long Island native.
Mateusz Gamrot ($7,100) – As a former KSW Champion, Gamrot heads into his first UFC main event with experience and momentum. Averaging the 4th most career points at 90.7, with that number bumping up to 102.5 in victory, Gamrot is worth a stab at 7.1k.
Neil Magny ($6,900) – Perhaps the lowest Magny has ever been priced, it’s hard not to highlight him. Averaging 87.53 points in victory, Magny may not knock your socks off. However, with nineteen UFC victories and priced below 7k, Magny is hard to pass at this salary saver rate.
Nate Maness ($6,800) – Being overlooked, even by me, Maness may be the toughest opponent Umar Nurmagomedov has faced. With solid takedown defense, and knockout power – Maness certainly has a chance in this fight. Averaging 92.7 career points, which is the fourth most on the card, and with a high of 104.5, Maness is a risk that could prove rewarding.
Fades
Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,300) – There is no denying that Rakhmonov is a talent. However, despite scoring finishes in all three of his fights inside the octagon, Rahmonov is averaging 103.6 points. One fight, he only scored 98.2. Against his toughest opponent in Neil Magny and at this price, I’m not sure I can bite on the Kazakh this time around.
Jinh Yu Frey ($9,200) – As much as Frey has impressed of late, she is only scoring 68.75 in victory. As the third highest priced fighter on the card, there is little to no chance that the juice is worth the squeeze.
Alan Baudot ($8,400) – In the Heavyweight division, anything can happen. However when reflecting on Baudot’s career, in the last six fights, he has only one legitimate win. Which didn’t even come in the UFC. So at 8.4k, it’s hard to find a positive in paying up for the Frenchman.
155 lbs.: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot – The main-event comes in the Lightweight division, as Arman “Ahalkalakets” Tsarukyan takes on Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot. A winner of five straight, Tsarukyan enters this fight with an opportunity to stamp his name among the contenders. Currently eleventh in the rankings, with a victory, Tsarukyan will find himself in the top ten of a stacked Lightweight division. Meanwhile, Gamrot has rebounded nicely since dropping his UFC debut by split decision. A winner of three straight, all of which came inside the distance, the former KSW Champion has found his stride. Checking in at twelfth in the rankings, Gamrot has a chance to crack the divisions top ten with a victory.
This fight is low-key amazing, as we have two rising stars battling for the chance to elevate themselves into contender status. Tsarukyan is a gifted fighter, who possesses excellent wrestling and grappling. Not one to be discouraged in a failed takedown attempt, Tsarukyan will often chain wrestle until he gets his foe to the ground. Thus far, he’s had little trouble doing such – landing sixteen takedowns in six UFC fights. At 25 years old and with only one loss in the last eighteen fights, which was to Islam Makhachev, Tsarukyan is a name that will be synonymous with the Lightweight division for years to come. As for Gamrot, he too is a wrestler and grappler. Landing a takedown in each of his four UFC appearances and twelve total, Gamrot has had little resistance in getting the fight to his world. Evolving in the striking department, Gamrot is starting to look more comfortable. However, it’s definitely an area where he can be outmatched.
As for a prediction, I’m going to side with Tsarukyan. A hard prediction to make anyway you slice it, this fight has the makings to be a barnburner. Given both men are proficient in both wrestling and grappling, it’s possible that we may see several scrambles and submission attempts. However, Tsarukyan is the more well rounded of the two and has shown that he can win on the feet. An area where I highlighted that Gamrot is most vulnerable. So with that said, in an excellent fight, I see Tsarukyan stopping Gamrot via TKO in the Championship rounds.
170 lbs.: Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov – In the co-main event, we have a pivotal fight in the Welterweight division, as Neil “Haitian Sensation” Magny takes on Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov. Often overlooked, Magny comes into his twenty-seventh UFC fight looking to continue his climb up the division. Checking in at tenth in the rankings, and with wins in five of the last six fights, Magny has an opportunity here to potential earn a top five fighter with a victory. Meanwhile, Rakhmonov has been nothing short of spectacular. Unbeaten in fifteen fights, the Kazakh comes into his fourth UFC appearance looking to knock off his first ranked foe. Should Rakhmonov prevail, the sky is the limit for the uber talented former M-1 Champion.
This is an excellent co-main event. Magny is a true veteran, who has fought whomever, whenever. This fight isn’t any different. A striker, with endless cardio, Magny can be one of the more difficult fighters to stand across from. With excellent durability and some good offensive wrestling too, Magny’s has several ways to win. However, his patented way to victory is simply outlasting opponents. With pressure, non-stop activity and a hard fifteen minute pace, Magny has broken down many fighters. In fact, eighteen of his nineteen wins have come after round one. As for Rakhmonov, he is evolving in front of our eyes. An excellent grappler, who has solid submissions and cardio, Rakhmonov is not someone you want to be on the ground with. While his striking is good, it’s still evolving.
As for a prediction, I’m going with Rakhmonov. If there is a route to victory against Magny, it’s by neutralizing him with wrestling and grappling. Something in which Demian Maia and Michael Chiesa successfully did. Also, it helps to have good cardio. Given Rakhmonov checks off all those markers, I’m in firm belief that he can get the job done. So with that said, give me the Kazakh finisher to win via submission.
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265 lbs.: Alan Baudot vs. Josh Parisian – We have a potential pink slip fight in the Heavyweight division, as Josh Parisian takes on Alan “The Black Samourai” Baudot. Joining the UFC in 2020, Parisian has struggled to find consistency. Losing two of his three fights with the promotion, with his only win coming against someone no longer in the UFC, Parisian urgently needs to win this fight. Otherwise, he could be out of the promotion in less than two years. Meanwhile, Baudot has yet to taste victory in the UFC. Hoping his fortune’s change in this fight, Baudot’s UFC tenure hangs in the balance. Unfortunate, as the UFC is headed to France and the Frenchman would be a perfect candidate to be on the card.
This fight is a crapshoot, as quite frankly, these are two of the bottom barrel Heavyweight’s. Parisian is a striker, who’s got good volume and cardio for a Heavyweight. Lacking power, Parisian looks to break down opponents over the course of the fight. With twelve of his fourteen wins coming via finish, more often than not, Parisian is doing just that. As for Baudot, he too is an active striker. Landing 5.12 significant strikes per minute, Baudot looks to swarm opponents output. However, there is something to be said about Baudot’s last six fights. He is 2-3 with one no contest. On the surface, that seems not too bad. When digging into it, you realize that Baudot has only one legitimate win in that span. The second victory was a result of Baudot’s opponent testing positive for Marijuana. A fight in which Baudot was stopped in, yet somehow was awarded a DQ win later on. Then there is the no contest. A fight in which Baudot was stopped in, but saw the result overturned due to a positive drug test by Rodrigo Nascimento. In other words, Baudot could very well be 1-5 in that stretch, with four of the losses coming via stoppage. Not to discredit the man, but I just don’t think he is UFC caliber. So with that said, I predict that Parisian will win this fight via TKO.
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155 lbs.: Christos Giagos vs. Thiago Moises – We have a pivotal fight in the Lightweight division, as Thiago Moises takes on Christos “The Spartan” Giagos. Having never lost back-to-back fights in his career, Moises comes into this fight in unknown territory. Formerly ranked in the top fifteen, Moises has shown that he has the talent to be a contender, he just needs to prove it. Meanwhile, Giagos saw his best stretch in the UFC come to an end, as Arman Tsarukyan defeated him. Looking to rebound quickly, Giagos is presented with a nice opportunity at knocking off a name in the division.
This should be a relatively interesting fight, as in order for Giagos to win, he must be willing to grapple with Moises. Something that only Beniel Dariush and Islam Makhachev have successfully done. Considering they are two of the top six ranked fighters in the division, I’d give Moises a pass. Giagos though is a wrestler, who’s game plan revolves around takedowns and control time. The only problem aside from his serviceable striking, is his suspect gas tank. If you ever back Giagos, you know in advance, should the fight get to a third round, he will be tired and in survival mode. Not exactly a recipe for success, but with the right matchup, it can be. This fight though isn’t that right matchup. Along with grappling and submission skills, Moises is an effective striker. If he can manage to stay upright or use submissions threats to get the fight back to the feet, he should easily take this fight. At worst, Moises will have the third round to rally. So with that said, I predict that Moises will win via decision.
135 lbs.: Nate Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov – We an intriguing Bantamweight contest, as Umar Nurmagomedov takes on Nate “Mayhem” Maness. Undefeated and with no signs of slowing down, Nurmagomedov looks to extend his unbeaten streak to fifteen. Unchallenged since entering the octagon in 2021, Nurmagomedov looks to be a bright prospect and future contender in a stacked Bantamweight division. Meanwhile, Maness comes into this fight with four straight wins, three of which came inside the octagon. Having most recently defeated Tony Gravely via knockout, Maness showed that he is ready for bigger fights. Presented with this opportunity, Maness can create a lot of buzz for himself with a victory.
As much as Maness has impressed each fight out, and has shown off impressive takedown defense, Nurmagomedov is a whole different animal. One that has seen very little resistance thus far in the UFC. While it’s feasible to believe Maness can thwart off a few takedown attempts, I simply can’t see it for the entirety of the fight. Him just thinking about the takedown, opens up Nurmagomedov’s striking alone. It’s hard to dismiss a fighter, especially one coming off an impressive performance against Tony Gravely. However, it’s harder to visually see Nurmagomedov losing. With that said, I predict that Nurmagomedov will win via decision.
185 lbs.: Chris Curtis vs. Rodolfo Vieira – To kick off the main card, we have an exciting bout in the Middleweight division, as Chris “The Action Man” Curtis takes on Rodolfo “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira. After retiring several times, Curtis’ unlikely road to the UFC has been nothing short of exceptional. Having won back-to-back fights inside the octagon over top Middleweights, Curtis enters this fight with a chance to crack the division’s top fifteen with a victory. Meanwhile, Vieira bounced back from his first professional defeat, with a submission victory over Dustin Stoltzfus. The submission was Vieira’s seventh in his eight victories.
Even though Curtis has fought up and down weight classes before joining the UFC, I was critical of him fighting at Middleweight. Thus far, he has proven me wrong. In two fights against filled out Middleweight’s, he has scored two knockouts and has shrugged off six takedown attempts. An important aspect to note, as Vieira’s whole game revolves around taking his opponent down. An accomplished BJJ black belt, Vieira is one of the most dangerous fighters to be stuck on the ground with. Having never won a fight via decision, Vieira is a pure finisher. However, on top of Vieira not being a striker, his cardio is awful. It’s an area of his game that will truly plague him. Especially in this fight, as Curtis has thus far showed off stout takedown defense and has only been submitted once in thirty-six fights. So with that said, I believe that Curtis will thwart off Viera’s grappling attempts, eventually seeing the Brazilian tire. At that point, Curtis will strike and pick up yet another knockout victory.
205 lbs.: Tafon Nchukwi vs. Carlos Ulberg – We have a clash in the Light Heavyweight division, as Tafon “Da Don” Nchuwki takes on Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg. Since joining the UFC in 2020, Nchuwki has failed to win two consecutive fights. Even worse, Nchuwki has dropped two of his last three. Needing a victory, Da Don comes into this fight with some urgency. Meanwhile, Ulberg is coming off his first UFC victory. A fight that wasn’t visually as exciting as his debut, but a victory none the less. With only five MMA fights, Ulberg’s experience isn’t vast, but he is certainly skilled enough to damage in this Light Heavyweight division
In what should be a striker’s delight, I’m going to give the edge to Nchuwki. Despite having to overcome a four inch height disadvantage, Nchuwki shouldn’t see his offense effected much. One to be an active striker, the Cameroonian does a good job landing combinations and attacking the body. Adding wrestling to his game, Nchuwki has the ability to mix it up. What he has lacked however, is the power he was labeled as having when entering the UFC. As for Ulberg, the former Kickboxer is a solid striker and comes out of the City Kickboxing gym. Having seen him brawl in his debut, to then being a patient and jab heavy fighter in his second appearance, shows the evolution in game. The only concern, other than inexperience, is Ulberg’s takedown defense. An area which has been largely untested. It’s part of the reason why I believe Nchuwki is going to win this fight via decision.
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145 lbs.: TJ Brown vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – We have a clash in the Featherweight division, as TJ “Downtown” Browns takes on Shayilan “Wolverine” Nuerdanbieke. After dropping the first two fights in the UFC, Brown has bounced back with two straight wins. The most recent being impressive, as he defeated a veteran in Charles Rosa. Staring at a three-fight win streak, bigger fights are on the horizon should he prevail. Meanwhile, Nuerdanbieke comes into this fight on the heels of his first UFC victory. A fight in which Nuerdanbieke started out slow, but took over during the last two rounds. The victory was Nuerdanbieke’s thirty-sixth as a professional, which at only 28 years old is pretty remarkable.
I feel like a broken record, but this card is full of close fights that hinge on a certain aspect. Brown is a wrestler and a dangerous submission threat. Not one to go to the scorecards often, Brown has won thirteen of his sixteen victories via stoppage. He has also been stopped in six of his eight losses, as his durability and cardio are major red flags. Coincidentally, Nuerdanbieke suffers from a lack of durability himself, as he has been stopped in eight of his ten losses. With six of them coming via submission, Brown certainly is licking his chops at testing Nuerdanbieke’s submission defense. Besides that flaw, Nuerdanbieke is a strong wrestler, who looks to grind down opponents. Not one to mix it up on the feet too long, Nuerdanbieke isn’t shy about spamming takedown attempts.
As for a prediction, I have Brown winning. In a fight between two wrestlers, Nuerdanbieke is the one who is more reliant on takedowns as a path to victory than Brown. And seeing how Nuerdanbieke struggled early in the fight against Sean Soriano, who’s takedown is abysmal, I’ll take Brown to scramble his way out of any attempts Wolverine throws his way. With better striking, I expect Brown to keep this fight upright and to inflict the most damage – leading to a decision victory.
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135 lbs.: Sergey Morozov vs. Raulian Paiva– We have an important fight in the Bantamweight division, as Raulian Paiva takes on Sergey Morozov. Coming off a loss to Sean O’Malley, Paiva saw not only his two-fight win streak halted, but his spot on the Bantamweight rankings taken. Looking to rebound and get back in position to make a run, Paiva comes into this fight with an opportunity to potential earn a ranked foe with a victory. Meanwhile, Morozov comes into this fight needing to find consistency. Going 1-2 in his first three UFC fights, a third loss could spell the end of his tenure.
This is another fight on the card, that is likely to be close. Paiva is a striker, who doesn’t often utilize leg kicks. Despite that, Paiva does a relatively good job landing with volume. His main strengths come from his cardio and durability, which have aided him in outlasting opponents in the later rounds. The main focal point of his game that will be tested is his takedown defense, as Morozov has wrestling and grappling skills worthy of taking over of a fight. No slouch on the feet either, Morozov is quick and is a pretty good counter striker. What he lacks however, is the durability and cardio necessary to be a top Bantamweight. If fights were a round long, Morozov would be among the top fifteen.
As for a prediction, I have Paiva winning. This fight is in his wheelhouse, as we can expect Morozov to look good early. Perhaps landing a few takedowns and even threatening with a finish. However, as the fight wanes, Paiva’s cardio will begin to show it’s teeth. Being the fresher fighter, Paiva will begin to win the grappling battles and land the more effective strikes. While a late finish is plausible, Paiva isn’t exactly known for his finishing prowess. With that said, give me Paiva to win via decision.
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125 lbs.: JP Buys vs. Cody Durden – We have a showdown in the Flyweight division, as Cody Durden takes on JP “Young Savage” Buys. Coming off a 58-second defeat, Durden returns to the octagon looking for better results. In four UFC appearances, Durden has gone 1-2-1. Needing to find consistency, Durden’s UFC tenure may hang in the balance in this fight. Meanwhile, Buys has yet to taste victory in two UFC fights. Urgently needing a victory to avoid a pink slip, this will be Buys most important fight of his career.
In what I expect to be a fight between two fighters looking to do everything possible to win, I’m going to have to side with Buys. A grappler, who has faced two tough opponents thus far, Buys striking defense and takedown defense has been porous to say the least. Being knocked down seven times in the two fights, and controlled for ten minutes by Montel Jackson most recently, an outsiders perspective may see him as a hard pass. Especially considering Durden is a wrestler. However, his cardio and submission defense are problematic. Two areas in which I believe will be his downfall, as Buys is a submission threat who has good cardio. With that said, I expect Durden to come out hot early and land some takedowns. By round two, Buys scrambling abilities and cardio will see him gain advantageous positions – eventually leading him to a submission victory.
135 lbs.: Mario Bautista vs. Brian Kelleher – We have a scrap in the Bantamweight division, as Mario Bautista takes on Brian “Boom” Kelleher. A winner of three of the last four, including a recent victory over Jay Perrin, Bautista comes into this fight looking to knock off a veteran. Only five years into his professional career, as Bautista continues to evolve, he may be someone to keep an eye out for in the future. Meanwhile, Kelleher comes into this fight looking to rebound from a defeat to Umar Nurmagomedov. A fight that Kelleher would like to put in his rear mirror, as it wasn’t his finest performance. Prior to the loss, the Long Island native had rattled off two consecutive victories.
This should be a relatively tight contest, and could even see a split decision decide the victor. On the feet, Bautista has the edge. Backed by excellent cardio, Bautista is an active striker. Not one to settle for one strike at a time, Bautista has the ability to swarm opponents. He’s aggressive and a willing brawler too, which has seen him vulnerable to getting cracked. No slouch on the ground either, Bautista has a skill set worthy of making a run at Bantamweight. However, Kelleher is a solid grappler, who has utilized his wrestling more of late. Landing nine takedowns in the last three fights, it’s clear that Kelleher isn’t afraid to fight to his strengths. Not too shabby on the feet, Kelleher possess some good pop. He just isn’t technical nor active.
As for a prediction, I have Kelleher ever so slightly winning. While I believe that Bautista’s striking could carry him, Kelleher has the power to be disruptive. He also has the wrestling and grappling to land important takedowns. One’s in which may steal a round or two. With that said, I predict that Kelleher wins via decision.
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115 lbs.: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jinh Yu Frey – We have an intriguing fight in the Women’s Strawweight division, as Jinh Yu Frey takes on Vanessa “Lil Monster” Demopoulos. After dropping her first two UFC bouts, Frey has rallied to win back-to-back fights. A former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion, Frey looks to be fully adapted to fighting at Strawweight. With a third straight victory in sight, it would be feasible to believe a big fight could be on the horizon for Frey. Meanwhile, Demopoulos comes into this fight fresh off her first UFC victory. The fight itself wasn’t easy, but Demopoulos overcame early adversity and mounted a comeback, stopping Silvana Gomez Juarez via an armbar. The victory was her seventh professional, and fifth via stoppage.
After four fights in the UFC, Frey comes into her fifth appearance as a favorite, for the first time. A well rounded fighter, who has looked better than ever in her last two fights, Frey has a plethora of ways to win. A patient technical striker with excellent takedown defense and good grappling skills, Frey has shown an ability to adapt based on her opponent’s weakness. However, her low output can be problematic at times. In Frey’s last fight though, she landed 88 significant strikes. Twelve more than she had in her previous three fights combined. Needing to avoid being hesitant, Frey will have to neutralize Demopoulos. An aggressive and creative grappler, who looks to find various ways to sweep and finish opponents. With five stoppages, four coming via submission, it’s wise to avoid being on the ground with Lil Monster.
As for a prediction, I have Frey winning. If she wasn’t so stout with her takedown defense, I’d possibly consider Demopoulos. She is scrappy, has no back-down in her and can catch someone in a submission at anytime. However, Frey has a significant advantage on the feet. Behind her technical striking, and three inch reach advantage, I see Frey keeping Demopoulos at bay. With good cardio, I don’t expect Frey to slow down either. So with that said, I predict Frey to win via decision.
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