We have an exciting scrap in the Welterweight division, as Ian “The Future” Garry takes on Darian Weeks. After a successful UFC debut, one that saw Garry knock out Jordan Williams, the Irishman will attempt to put forth an encore. Undefeated and with immense potential, Garry has a bright future ahead of him. Meanwhile, Weeks is coming off an unsuccessful UFC debut. One that came on short notice and against a grizzled veteran in Bryan Barberena. With a full camp and a second chance inside the octagon, we may see the best version of Weeks.
As for a prediction, I have Weeks winning. While Garry is all the rave, and rightfully so, I believe Weeks has the abilities to turn this fight into a grind. Having landed 118 significant strikes and four takedowns in a fifteen minute brawl with Barberena, all while tired due to the short notice nature, Weeks showed to me that he has the moxy and will to win. With an extensive twenty fight amateur career, Weeks brings forth more experience than his seven fights would indicate. Now, Garry has shown little weaknesses throughout his young career. Flawless on the feet, he’s technical, precise and powerful. Often keeping distance and landing leg kicks, Garry isn’t afraid to chop down his target before going for the kill. Even his takedown defense and grappling have looked sharp. He’s a legitimate prospect who fights with more experience than you’d expect someone at only twenty-four years of age. However, the reason I’m picking against the Irishman, is that I’m fascinated how he will approach and adjust in this fight. Knowing Weeks will be physically in better shape and have the cardio necessary to go a hard fifteen minutes, I’d expect more wrestling and overall activity than he achieved in his debut. Something in which I don’t think Garry has yet to face. So with all that said, I could be dead wrong here, but there is something to be said about catching an upstart early in their career. While Weeks isn’t a grizzled UFC veteran, he still possesses the ability to grind out what I believe will be a hard-fought decision victory.
We have a clash in the Heavyweight division, as Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik takes on Marcin “Tybur” Tybura. Ever since storming into the UFC with four-straight knockout victories, Rozenstruik has only won two of his last five fights. Most recently being defeated by Curtis Blaydes, Rozenstruik will have to once again build himself up to get another crack at a top five foe. Meanwhile, Tybura is coming off a close defeat to Alexander Volkov. A loss that halted a five-fight win streak dating back to February of 2020. With the streak snapped, Tybura has an opportunity to climb back in a position to fight a top ranked opponent next.
As for a prediction, I have Tybura winning. While Rozenstruik’s power is always a concern, he’s way too hesitant of a striker to trust. Averaging a mere 2.8 significant strikes per minute, Rozenstruik isn’t one for the long game. In fact, in nine UFC fights, Rozenstruik has only eclipsed 43 strikes once. Obviously most of his fights have ended inside the distance, but 2.8 significant strikes per minute pretty much tell the story. A reason though I lean Tybura is that he isn’t just a striker. He’s got some good wrestling, excellent top control and dangerous ground-and-pound. Having landed eight takedowns during his five-fight win streak, I have little doubt he won’t implement a wrestling attack on Rozenstruik. Especially when you consider Rozenstruik’s power and the fact that he’s been taken down fives times in the past three fights. So with that said, I predict that Tybura wins via decision.
In the Welterweight division, we have a showdown between Mickey Gall and newcomer Mike “Proper” Malott. Trading wins and loses for the past eight fights, Gall has yet to find his footing inside the octagon. Having signed with the promotion with only one professional fight, the expected growing pains have shown their teeth. Meanwhile, Malott steps into his UFC debut a winner of three-straight. Most recently fighting on Dana White’s Contender Series, Malott impressively submitted Shimon Smotritsky in 39 seconds. Thus earning him a UFC contract and big opportunity against Gall.
As for a prediction, I have Malott winning. While Gall is due for a win, Malott is a tough customer. Well rounded, with a lone blemish coming to the talented Hakeem Dawodu, Malott looks UFC ready. Having won all seven of his victories via stoppage, Malott has shown that he doesn’t need the judges to partake in his fate. He also has not discriminated on how he finishes opponents, with four wins coming via submission and three via knockout. Now, Gall has significantly improved since touching down in the UFC in 2016. However, his striking and cardio still are not where they need to be in order to progress in the Welterweight division. I mean, Gall hasn’t had a winning streak since he started out 4-0. With good grappling and submissions, Gall can stylistically beat lesser grapplers. Something which doesn’t apply to Malott. So with that said, I have Malott winning via TKO.
We have an intriguing fight in the Bantamweight division, as Julio Arce takes on promotional newcomer Daniel “Willycat” Santos. Having traded wins and loses for the past six fights, Arce will seek to find some consistency. In a stacked Bantamweight division, Arce can’t afford to continue losing if he will ever want to fight for the title. Meanwhile, Santos comes into his UFC debut on a two-fight win streak. Having not fought for 2.5 years, due to event cancellations and Injuries, Santos will need to shake off the rust under the brightest lights.
As for a prediction, I have Arce winning. Despite failing to win two-straight fights since 2018, Arce is a good fighter in a tough division. Having most recently fought Yadong Song, who is currently ranked in the top ten, Arce learned what it will take to get to that level. While Santos is a tough customer, notably throwing several spinning strikes, the layoff is problematic. To not only debut in the UFC, but after a 2.5 years since you’re last fight just seems like an enormous obstacle to overcome. Throw in a tough customer like Arce and I don’t like Santos’ chances. So with that said, I predict that Arce wins via decision.
We have a pivotal fight in the Lightweight division, as Vinc “From Hell” Pichel takes on Mark “The Olympian” Madsen. Unranked, despite winning three straight and seven of the last eight, Pichel will look to once more prove he’s a top Lightweight. At 39 years of age, father time isn’t on his side. It also isn’t slowing him down. Meanwhile, Madsen comes into this fight undefeated. Having most recently edged out Clay Guida in a barnburner, the former Olympian will look to continue his trek to a title shot.
As for a prediction, I have Pichel winning. While Madsen is stylistically a fighter who has given Pichel fits, this isn’t a Rustam Khabilov or Gregor Gillespie. It’s an Olympian, who is rather inexperienced and has shown gas tank issues. Having most recently defeated Clay Guida by split decision in a straight up striking contest, Madsen showed a new wrinkle to his game. One that has evolved, but clearly isn’t something he can rely on against better strikers. Pichel, a technical, yet powerful striker being one of them. The question is, can Pichel fend off Madsen’s wrestling? In the early portions of the fight, I don’t think so. However, as the fight wanes and Madsen tires, Pichel will begin to turn the tide. So much so, that I believe he will not only defeat Madsen, but finish him. So with that said, I predict Pichel to win by TKO.
We have an intriguing fight in the Women’s Strawweight division, as promotional newcomer Piera “La Fiera” Rodriguez takes on Kay Hansen. Undefeated, Rodriguez will look to continue her dominance in MMA under the brightest lights. Having most recently competed on Dana White’s Contender series five months ago, the Venezuelan appears more than ready for this opportunity. Meanwhile, Hansen comes into this fight needing a victory. Having lost two straight, both of which came to promotional newcomers, Hansen’s shine is starting to wear off. Still only twenty-two, Hansen will have plenty of time to right the ship. But if she keeps losing, it won’t be in the UFC.
As for a prediction, I have Rodriguez winning. While at one point, Hansen looked to have turned a corner in her career, this recent stumble may suggest that she isn’t quite ready for the UFC. Often looking uncomfortable on the feet, Hansen looks to get the fight down to the ground. When in top control, her grappling at times has looked good. It’s clearly a strength, but one that isn’t capable of beating certain fighters at this level. That includes Rodriguez. A powerful and technical striker, who is also physically strong and has shown good grappling abilities herself. A tough matchup for Hansen if you ask me. So with that said, I predict that Rodriguez wins via decision.
The curtain jerker comes in the Middleweight division, as Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez takes on newcomer Josh Fremd. Originally scheduled to take on Dricus Du Plessis, Hernandez was part of a card shuffle that see’s him now face a debuting fighter. A winner of two of his last three, Hernandez is starting to build momentum. Perhaps his biggest win came in his most recent fight though, as he upset BJJ legend Rodolfo Vieira by submission. Meanwhile, Fremd steps into his UFC debut on short notice. Having won two straight and seven of the last eight, Fremd seems more than ready for this opportunity. Especially when you factor in that he is a former LFA veteran who has headlined two events.
As for a prediction, I’m going with Hernandez. While I’m not overly confident in this prediction, Hernandez has been better than most have given him credit for. Over his past six fights, he has defeated Brendan Allen, Jun Yong Park, Rodolfo Viera and technically Jordan Wright. His two defeats have come to Markus Perez and Kevin Holland. Outside of the Perez loss, Hernandez has been nearly flawless, notching several big victories. The only worry I have with Hernandez, is his cardio. Having only gone the distance once in ten fights, Hernandez potentially could be exposed should Fremd push a frantic pace. Something in which I’ve noticed Fremd can thrive in. However, I’ve also noticed that Fremd can be taken down and controlled. Given Hernandez has excellent grappling and previously took Park down six times in their fight, I can see the same going down here. So with that said, I predict that Hernandez wins via late submission.
*This prediction was made last week, as both were supposed to fight before a last minute cancellation scrapped the bout*
We have a fight in the Heavyweight division, as Alexey “The Boa Constrictor” Oleynik takes on Ilir “The Sledgehammer” Latifi. At 44 years of age and on a three-fight losing streak, this may very well be Oleynik’s last stand in the UFC. Still searching for win number sixty, this would be the opportune time to cash in. Otherwise, it may have to come on the regional scene. Meanwhile, Latifi most recently snapped a three-fight skid with a victory over Tanner Boser. His first win as a Heavyweight, which is remarkable given he used to fight at 185 pounds.
As for a prediction, I have Latifi winning. While this fight has crapshoot written all over it, there are a few factors that lean me towards Latifi. For one, Latifi has no neck and has never been submitted in twenty-three fights. Given Oleynik’s game revolves around submitting opponents, I’d say there is an unlikelihood he’s going be able to do such. Then again, Oleynik has submitted forty-six opponents. However, Latifi being a wrestler and borderline juggernaut, I don’t see a scenario where Oleynik will be able to do much off his back. Latifi smothers opponents, holding position and never really puts himself in harm’s way. On the feet, Latifi has knockout power, but that’s about it. Never exceeding more than forty-four strikes in his fourteen appearances inside the octagon, Latifi can be thoroughly beaten by a volume striker. Something which isn’t in the card for Oleynik, who’s technique on the feet involves power overhand strikes. A strategy that hasn’t always worked out for him given his shaky chin. So with all that said, I predict that Latifi will win via TKO.
We have a pivotal fight in the Women’s Bantamweight division, as Aspen Ladd takes on Raquel “Rocky” Pennington. After storming through the UFC early on, Ladd is in the toughest stretch of her young career. 1-2 in the last three, with a recent main event defeat, Ladd is going to need to right the ship to maintain her status as a contender. Meanwhile, Pennington comes into this bout on a three-fight win streak. Making the walk for the third time in less than seven months, Pennington is poised to get a second crack at the title sooner than later.
After going back-and-forth with this prediction, I’m ultimately picking Ladd to win. While her most recent performance may sour, I’d like to chalk it up to a bad day at the office. An excellent wrestler, with evolving striking, Ladd has the abilities to be a special talent at Bantamweight. However, mentally she will need to be at her best, as Pennington is a seasoned veteran whom has contended for the belt. Having won three straight and four of the last five, it seems that Pennington may once again be inching towards a title shot. A boxer with excellent durability, Pennington has shown she can win in both a brawl or a grind. Considering I believe this will be a grind, I don’t doubt Pennington’s ability to win. I just believe that Ladd’s wrestling is the x-factor that should be able to aid her to a close decision victory.
UFC Fight Night 205: Blaydes vs. Daukaus Draftkings Spreadsheet
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Best Plays
9k Range:
Manon Fiorot ($9,400) – Undefeated in the UFC and one of the bigger favorites on the card, Fiorot is tagged as the highest salaried fighter on the card. Averaging 102.6 points per fight, Fiorot can be counted on to score. However, there is some caution to this hefty price. Opponent Jennifer Maia is a former title challenger and has not been stopped in over 10 years.
Aliaskhab Khizriev($9,300) – A perfect 13-0, Khizriev comes into his UFC debut with high expectations. A mauling fighter with a 69% finishing rate, Khizriev is a good play at $9,300. Especially when you factor in that his opponent, Denis Tiuliulin, not only is coming into this fight on short notice, but is a mere 9-5. And of those five losses, Tiuliulin has been finished three times.
Curtis Blaydes ($9,200) – Perhaps the best, safest and salary-saver pick in the 9k range is Curtis Blaydes. A wrestler, with the intention to take the fight to mat early and often, Blaydes has constantly delivered. In fact, in the last ten fights, Blaydes has averaged 114.87 points per victory. He even scored a high of 172.8 in a five round fight against Alexander Volkov.
8k Range:
Karol Rosa ($8,900) – This might carry a high price tag, but Rosa has more often than not lived up to it. Undefeated in the UFC at 4-0, Rosa has averaged 104.8 fantasy points. Scoring more than 108.6 points in three of the four fights, Rosa is a good play at this range. Especially when you consider she is fighting Sara McMann. A 41 year old who has been as inconsistent as it gets.
Viacheslav Borshchev ($8,700) – There may be some trepidation about Borshachev given he’s fought only once in the UFC and seven times as a professional. However, if there is one thing certain, he’s not one to go the distance. With an 83% finishing rate and all five stoppages coming no later than round two, Borshachev is someone you can count on to eclipse 100 points.
Danaa Batgerel ($8,600) – Other than Blaydes, Batgerel may be the best play on the card. A winner of eight of his last nine, three of which have come inside the octagon, Batgerel is a finisher to the core. Even more impressive, Bategerel has won all three of his UFC fights in the opening round. While he has a tough draw in Chris Gutierrez, a fighter who has never been stopped via strikes, Batgerel possesses immense power. Just ask Brandon Davis.
Matt Brown($8,200) – This is a risky play, as Matt Brown is a kill or be killed fighter. However, when he wins, he scores. Averaging 103.75 points in wins over the last 10 fights, with his lowest point total in a win being 91.4, Brown could be a lineup winner.
7k and Below Range:
Chris Daukaus ($7,000) – There is a realistic possibility that Daukaus gets dominated via the relentless wrestling of Blaydes. There is also a chance that he can knock out Blaydes. At 7k, averaging 119.8 points in his four UFC wins, Daukuas is certainly worth a shot.
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Value Plays
Bryan Barberena ($8,000) – While Barberena has been a mixed bag of late, he could be an excellent play against another mixed bag in Matt Brown. Averaging 96.9 points in victory and 46.22 in defeat, Barberena has a rare ability to put up points win or lose.
Aleksei Oleinik ($7,600) – Not my favorite play, but always a threat given his submission abilities, Oleinik could be worth a stab here. Averaging 96.82 points in victory, with his lowest point total in a victory being 90.6, Oleinik has a reasonable ceiling at this price. The one problem here, which is why I’m cautious, Oleinik is 44 years old and has been stopped in five of his last six losses.
Max Griffin ($7,400) – This one snuck up on me, but Griffin is an intriguing option. Not one to score a whole lot in victories, averaging 86.94 points, Griffin has actually averaged 51.18 in defeat. A number that not only leads the field, but is attributed to perhaps being ousted in multiple decisions that could of gone his way. With that in mind, Griffin may be one of the safest options to side with.
Joanne Wood ($7,200) – Submission artist have been Wood’s downfall in the UFC. Seeing that Alexa Grasso is a striker with zero submissions on her record, Wood may very well be a strong play here. Averaging 97.27 in victory, with her lowest point total in victory being 89.5, Wood has a favorable ceiling at this price tag. Even in defeat, Wood has averaged 32.71 points. Fourth most among the field.
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