The Bantamweight division plays host to a fun scrap, as Danaa “Storm” Batgerel takes on Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez. A winner of three straight and eight of the last nine, Batgerel is beginning to make his presence known. With the last ten victories coming via stoppage, Batgerel prefers the judges stay home when he steps inside the octagon. Meanwhile, Gutierrez has been on quite the roll. Having gone 5-0-1 since losing his UFC debut in 2018, Gutierrez has positioned himself for a perhaps a ranked foe should he win.
As for a prediction, I have Batgerel winning. While I expect this fight to be a scrap, Batgerel brings forth disruptive power that can change the complexion of any fight. Having knockout out three straight opponents in the first round, including the durable Brandon Davis, it’s clear that Batgerel can shut the lights out with one punch. Landing 6.28 significant strikes per minute, Batgerel is an active striker who can also go the distance if need be. In fact, one of Batgerel few decision victories came over Kai Kara-France. The one worry is his takedown defense, but given Gutierrez is a striker, I don’t expect much grappling. Instead, I see a striking match, in which Gutierrez will look to chop down Batgerel early with leg kicks. However, Batgerel will adjust and time the leg kick, eventually landing a big shot. One in which stuns and ends Gutierrez’s night. So with that said, I predict that Batgerel will extend his win streak to four via TKO.
We have a pivotal fight in the Flyweight division, as David “Undertaker” Dvorak takes on Matheus Nicolau. A winner of sixteen straight, three of which have come in the UFC, Dvorak is on quite the tear. Checking in at 10th in the Flyweight division, Dvorak with a win, could very well be in the title conversation. Meanwhile, Nicolau has made the most of his second UFC stint. Having rattled off back-to-back wins over Manel Kape and Tim Elliott, Nicolau is proving himself to be among the best at Flyweight. Checking in at 8th in the division, Nicolau has a chance to crack the top five and truly announce himself as a legitimate contender.
As for a prediction, I have Nicolau winning. While Dvorak has been a force at Flyweight, I believe he will see his first defeat in nearly ten years. Nicolau is a well rounded fighter, who is ranked in many statistical categories in the Flyweight division. With solid striking, which features volume, power and accuracy, Nicolau can be a handful to deal with on the feet. Having excellent takedown defense, as well as some good wrestling and grappling, Nicolau is championship material. The fact that he beat Kape and Elliott only solidifies that. Being that he is 8th in the rankings and 5-1 in six UFC fights, there is a strong case he could be a fight away from a title shot with a victory. It won’t be entirely easy though, as Dvorak too is well rounded. Winning ten straight fights is hard, let along sixteen. Dvorak is a high output striker, who puts together excellent combinations. While his grappling is good, his takedown defense isn’t impenetrable. It’s an area in which Bruno Silva attacked, landing three takedowns. Something in which I believe Nicolau will mix into his attack, considering the Brazilian has landed at least one takedown in four of his five victories. So with that said, in a competitive fight, give me Nicolau to win via decision.
We have an intriguing fight in the Middleweight division, as newcomers Aliaskhab Khizriev and Denis Tiuliulin clash. Coming in the UFC undefeated at 13-0, Khizriev will look to insert his dominance inside the octagon. A truly talented fighter and one of the more UFC ready fighters, Khizriev is one to keep an eye at 185 pounds. Meanwhile, Tiuliulin steps into his UFC debut on short notice. A winner of four of his last five, in which all four wins came via knockout, Tiuliulin brings legitimate knockout power to the octagon.
As for a prediction, I have Khizriev winning. While Tiuliulin packs a punch, he’s in for a rough night. Khizriev is good striker, who’s arsenal includes a heavy overhand left, fast hands and deadly leg kicks. However, Khizriev strength is in his wrestling. Using it to maul opponents and get off his heavy ground-and-pound, Khizriev is not someone you want to see in top control. Unfortunately for Tiuliulin, it’s something he’s going to have to deal with. So with that said, I predict that Khizriev wins this fight early via submission.
The curtain jerker comes in the Featherweight division, as Luis Saldana takes on Bruno “The Tiger” Souza. Coming off his first defeat since 2017, Saldana will look to start new streak. Having previously won five straight, including a debut victory over Jordan Griffin, Saldana has turned the corner from the mediocre 10-6 fighter he once was. Meanwhile, Souza is coming off a defeat in his UFC debut. One in which snapped a ten-fight win streak and was his first since 2016. As the former LFA Featherweight Champion, Souza brings forth a talent and pedigree that could see him success at Featherweight.
As for a prediction, I have Souza winning. While I expect this to be a close fight, I believe Souza’s kickboxing will help him slightly edge out Saldana on the feet. Having a karate based style, Souza likes to keep distance and pick opponents apart. With a nice mix of leg kicks and strikes to go along with good cardio, Souza can be a tough opponent to stand with. The one worry I have for Souza in this fight, is his lack of volume. However, Saldana isn’t much better in that department and is someone who fades the later the fight goes. So with that said, expect Saldana to take the opening round and Souza to weather the storm and win via split decision.
Tom Aspinall vs. Tai Tuivasa – After an impressive performance, one in which resulted in a first round submission victory over Alexander Volkov, Tom Aspinall called out Tai Tuivasa. A fight that couldn’t be more perfect to make. With Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou out of action for nine months, an Interim Heavyweight Title fight is all but coming. However, neither Tom Aspinall or Tai Tuivasa will be apart of it. Instead, it will be Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. While the Heavyweight title has been one of the least defended title and either Jones or Miocic being apart of it won’t help that cause, it’s the fight to make. The number one contender’s fight though, is one-hundred percent Aspinall and Tuivasa.
Arnold Allen vs. Calvin Kattar – Since joining the UFC in 2015, Arnold Allen has yet to lose. That trend continued in perhaps his best performance to date, stopping Dan Hooker in the opening round. At 9-0 in the UFC, it’s time for Allen to not only main event, but enter the title conversation. Given he’s expressed the desire for both, and has even called out Calvin Kattar, the UFC would be wise to get behind Allen. He’s that good.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Ilia Topuria – Sometimes the matchmakers have to do some work, other times, fights fall in their laps. This is one of tumes that the fights that fell on their laps, as Paddy Pimblett and Ilia Topuria have spat over twitter, had a run-in at the fighter hotel and both won impressively. With a softball practically thrown in the direction of the UFC, it would be a huge whiff if they were to pass on this opportunity. One in which would be a hell of a build-up to the fight.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Michael Chiesa – I’m not sure what Nelson’s ceiling is, but if he wants to make a run at the title, he’s got to stay active. If so, a fight against Michael Chiesa would be a lot of fun. One in which would feature two high caliber grapplers with excellent submission abilities.
Makwan Amirikhani vs. Ryan Hall – With losses in three straight and four of his last five, Makwan Amirkhani desperately needed a victory. And boy did he get one, as he quickly defeated Mike Grundy via submission in round one. Seeing how Amirkhani still has a name and clearly is an excellent grappler, a fight against a BJJ wiz in Ryan Hall would make for an entertaining grappling affair.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Andrei Arlovski – With an emphatic first round knockout victory over Shamil Abdurakhimov, Sergei Pavlovich extended his win streak to three. A real powerhouse with legitimate knockout power, Pavlovich has the ability to climb the ranks. However, being active would certainly go a long way in aiding that. Nevertheless, a good next test for Pavlovich would be against Andrei Arlovski. The former Heavyweight Champion who is the division leader in wins and bouts. A true veteran and a stiff test for any upstart.
Paul Craig vs. Anthony Smith – Since being knocked out by Alonzo Menifield, Paul Craig has gone 5-0-1 in his last six fights. With back-to-back wins over Jamahal Hill and Nikita Krylov, it’s time to take Craig seriously. He’s a finisher and has perhaps the most dangerous guard in all of mixed martial arts. A next logical step would be either a main event or being on the main card of a PPV against a top five foe. A fighter who meets that qualification and is currently not booked is Anthony Smith. A former title challenger who has rattled off three straight stoppage victories and repositioned himself as a contender in the Light Heavyweight division.
Jack Shore vs. Ricky Simon – With a gutsy victory over Timur Valiev, Jack Shore pushed his record to 16-0. While only five have come inside the octagon, Shore clearly is ready to take on the division’s top fifteen. A good next fight for Shore would be against Ricky Simon. Currently ranked 13th and on a four-fight win streak, Simon would be a stiff test. One in which I would fancy watching, as both men are extremely talented and have the ability to become contenders in this stacked Bantamweight division.
Elise Reed vs. Vanessa Demopoulos – After an impressive win over Cory McKenna, Elise Reed will get a bump up in competition. While the Strawweight division isn’t exactly deep, a fun fight against a fellow fighter with two UFC fights in Vanessa Demopoulos would make sense. Especially considering they both just won their first fight in the UFC
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Carlos Hernandez – A potential Champion in the making has arrived, as Muhammad Mokaev needed only 58 seconds to submit Cody Durden in his UFC debut. While it would be wise for the UFC to build up Mokaev, it’s hard to find a fight that will do so. The division itself is shallow, but perhaps a fight against a Carlos Hernandez would make sense. A fighter who just successfully made his debut.
Losers
Alexander Volkov vs. Sergey Spivak – While it’s plausible to set up a rematch between Derrick Lewis, I’m in favor of a fresh face for Alexander Volkov. Still one of the very best Heavyweights, a fight against Sergey Spivak should be in the running. Having been taken down and submitted by Tom Aspinall, Volkov will want to prove that his takedown and submission defense is better than that. Given Spivak’s game revolves around taking opponents down and submitting them, I’d say it’s a perfect way for Volkov to bounce back and regain confidence in his abilities.
Dan Hooker vs. Alex Caceres – I’m not sure what Hooker is thinking as far as what weight class he will fight at next. However, if he gives Featherweight another crack, a fight against Alex Caceres would be a wildly entertaining scrap. One in which Hooker, wouldn’t necessarily have to worry about getting stopped on the feet given Caceres has only three knockouts to his name.
Kazula Vargas vs. Charlie Ontiveros – Zero Chance this would make it past the first round.
Takashi Sato vs. Kenan Song – If Sato is given another chance, this would be an entertaining scrap between two knockout artist.
Luana Carolina vs. Sabino Mazo – This may be a long stretch given the unknown of how long Carolina will be out for, but a fight against a fellow striker in Mazo would be a fun one.
Jai Herbert vs. Devonte Smith – If not cut, this fight would feature two heavy-handed strikers who desperately need a win.
Mike Grundy vs. Danny Henry – If not cut, this would be a contest between two victims of Amirkhani.
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs, Walt Harris – If not cut or retired, perhaps a fight against Walt Harris or Augusto Sakai would do. After all, all three have lost three straight.
Nikita Krylov vs. Volkan Oezdemir – If there is a kryptonite of Krylov’s, it’s submission artist. Oezdemir happens to not be one.
Timur Valiev vs. Raulian Paiva – While this might be a stretch, I don’t see Valiev’s defeat as a stock dropper. He looked good at times and proved his toughness by getting back up after adversity. This would be a nice fight for both, as it would get them back in the position previous to their recent defeat.
Cory McKenna vs. Miranda Granger – One of these fighters have to get out of the bottom of a top heavy Strawweight division.
Cody Durden vs. Victor Rodriguez – Both gentleman are a combined 1-3-1 in the UFC. Potential pink slip fight.
265 lbs.: Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall – The main event comes in the Heavyweight division, as two contenders in Alexander “Drago” Volkov and Tom Aspinall clash in a pivotal fight. Checking in at 6th in the Heavyweight division, with eight wins in eleven fights inside the octagon, Volkov is truly one of the divisions best. Having won three of the last four, Volkov has to be closing in on his first title shot. Meanwhile, Aspinall has been on some tear. A winner of seven straight, four of which have come in the UFC, Aspinall has laid waste to anyone who’s stood in his path. With all eleven victories coming by stoppage, Aspinall isn’t one to need the judges to decide his fate.
As for a prediction, I have Aspinall winning. While it’s it’s hard to doubt Volkov, considering how good he is, Aspinall is just a wave of talent that has Championship potential. A heavy-handed boxer with good hand speed, Aspinall is dangerous on the feet. However, a BJJ black belt, Aspinall has a good ground game too. With heavy ground-and-pound and good submissions, Aspinall may be one of the last Heavyweight’s you want to see in top control. It won’t be easy though, as aside from Blaydes taking Volkov down fourteen times, the Russian has fended off 45 of 51 takedowns. Roughly 90%. A high output striker, who stays at a distance and uses his length to pick apart opponents, Volkov is among the division’s best on the feet. The only thing Volkov lacks is one-punch power, which Aspinall packs plenty of. In a fight that could really go either way, I’m banking on Aspinall to live up to the hype. So with that said, I have Aspinall winning via TKO.
145 lbs.: Dan Hooker vs. Arnold Allen – The Co-Main event of the evening comes in the Featherweight division, as Arnold “Almighty” Allen takes on Dan “The Hangman” Hooker. Since debuting in 2015, Allen has astonishingly won all eight of his fights inside the octagon. Checking in at 7th in the Featherweight division, Allen is closing in on a number one contender’s fight. Meanwhile, Hooker is dropping back down to Featherweight. Having gone 1-3 in his last four fights, Hooker will look to rejuvenate his career back where he started it in the UFC.
As for a prediction, I have Hooker winning. While I expect this fight to be close, and I do think that Allen is underrated, this will be his stiffest test to date. Hooker is a well rounded fighter, who has exceptional kickboxing. Standing 4 inches taller, with a five inch reach advantage, Allen will need to get inside to get off his offense. Considering he likes to pressure and isn’t afraid to brawl, I don’t see that being a problem. However, Hooker does a good job keeping distance and using his length. Landing nearly five significant strikes a minute, Hooker brings forth top notch output. Something in which I believe will be a factor in swaying this fight towards him. That and his takedown defense, which is solid regardless of what Makhachev did to him. In the end, while I do believe this with be competitive, Hooker’s takedown defense, output and length will aid him to a hard fought decision victory.
155 lbs.: Paddy Pimblett vs. Rodrigo Vargas – We have a fun one in the Lightweight division, as Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett takes on Rodrigo “Kazula” Vargas. Coming off a sensational knockout victory in one of the best debuts to date, Pimblett returns to the octagon for an encore. A winner of three straight, Pimblett will look to keep the momentum going. Meanwhile, Vargas comes into this fight off his first UFC victory over Rong Zhu. A fight in which Vargas looked sharp, landing more than double the amount of strikes than Zhu. In a big spot over a big name, Vargas has an opportunity to boost his stock.
As for a prediction, I have Pimblett winning. While the odds are seemingly stacked against Vargas, it’s more or less because of the hype surrounding Pimblett. Not that the Brit doesn’t deserve it, but this isn’t a cakewalk of a fight. Vargas is a game opponent, who isn’t particularly strong in one area, but has skills everywhere. The one problem that will be exploited though, is Vargas’ lack of takedown defense. Already coming into the UFC with suspect takedown defense, Vargas has proven that it is in fact a weakness. In three fights, he has been taken down three times twice. Only successfully defending two takedown attempts, Vargas’ takedown defense sits at a horrific 25%. However, Vargas has some grappling skills and has only been submitted once in sixteen fights. I believe that changes though, as Pimblett will wear down Vargas and eventually submit him late in the fight.
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170 lbs.: Gunnar Nelson vs. Takashi Soto- We have an intriguing fight in the Welterweight division, as Gunnar “Gunni” Nelson takes on Takashi “Ten” Sato. Returning to the octagon for the first time since September of 2019, the once promising prospect Nelson will look to snap a two-fight skid. Having debuted in the UFC in 2012, Nelson hasn’t accomplished what many thought was possibly. However at only 33 years old, there is still time. Meanwhile, Sato steps into this fight on short notice. Having been absent from the octagon since November of 2020, Sato will look to erase his most recent defeat to Miguel Baeza and get back in the win column.
As for a prediction, I have Nelson winning. Despite falling off the face of the earth, Nelson brings forth a unique style that is highlighted by his impeccable grappling. While Sato is the better of the two on the feet, Nelson hasn’t been one to stand and strike with the majority of his opponents. In fact, and despite the layoff, Nelson is tied with Chris Lytle and Demian Maia for the most submissions in the Welterweight division at six. Completing 1.75 takedowns per minute at a 55% clip, I expect at some point, Nelson to get this fight to the mat and do what he does best. Submit people. So with that said, I predict Nelson will win this fight via submission.
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265 lbs.: Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Sergei Pavlovich – We have a showdown in the Heavyweight division, as Shamil “Abrek” Abdurakhimov takes on Sergei Pavlovich. Checking in at 10th in the Heavyweight rankings, Abdurakhimov would appear in good standings. However, at 40 years old and on a two-fight skid, Abdurakhimov’s tenure in the UFC may be on the line. Meanwhile, Pavlovich will return to the octagon for the first time since October of 2019. Having seen three fights cancelled due to injury, visa and travel issues, Pavlovich may be a little rusty out there.
As for a prediction, I have Pavlovich winning. Despite the lengthy layoff, Pavlovich is the more trusting fighter at this current stage. While there was a time where Abdurakhimov had looked promising, even at an older age, he has become slower and no longer has the ability to withstand punishment. Whether that’s father time or having faced better competition, both which seem true, predicting Abdurakhimov to win is on hold until further notice. Pavlovich at the very least, is a powerful striker, with a good track record and has a wrestling background. Although he never uses his wrestling, defensively it could come into play against Abdurakhimov. So with all that said, I believe Pavlovich systematically pieces Abdurakhimov up on the feet. Eventually winning via knockout.
205 lbs.: Paul Craig vs. Nikita Krylov – We have a ranked fight in the Light Heavyweight division, as Nikita “The Miner” Krylov takes on Paul “Bearjew” Craig. Having traded wins and losses for the past six fights, Krylov will seek to find some consistency. Checking in at 9th in the Light Heavyweight division, Krylov still remains in good standings. However, a win-streak of some sorts will be needed to climb up the totem. Meanwhile, Craig is 4-0-1 in his last five. Having not lost since 2019, and with a recent submission victory over Jamahal Hill, Craig is becoming a major player at 205 pounds.
As for a prediction, I have Krylov winning. While this is one of the tougher fights to pick on the card, as it really could either way in a heartbeat, I like Krylov’s overall game better than Craig. Even despite Krylov’s lack of success, the strength of schedule has more to do with than anything else. Since coming back to the UFC in 2018, Krylov has fought Jan Blachowicz, Ovince St. Preux, Glover Teixeira, Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. If anyone’s counting, that’s the former Light Heavyweight Champion, a former Light Heavyweight title challenger, the Current Light Heavyweight Champion, the 12th ranked Light Heavyweight and the 4th ranked Light Heavyweight. With a well rounded game, Krylov has shown comfortability wherever the fight takes place. In this particular fight though, it would be wise for Krylov to avoid grappling and keep it standing. Otherwise, like I said before, this fight can flip in a heartbeat. Craig is a solid grappler with excellent submissions in his arsenal. Having won all fifteen of his victories via stoppage, twelve of which have come via submission, Craig is a dangerous opponent to face. Especially for Krylov, who has been submitted in five of his eight losses. However, I believe Krylov will keep this on the feet and eventually knock out Craig.
155 lbs.: Jai Herbert vs. Ilia Topuria – We have a scrap in the Lightweight division, as Jai “The Black Country Banger” Herbert takes on Ilia “El Matador” Topuria. The third time was the charm for Herbert, as he halted a two-fight skid with an impressive knockout victory over Khama Worthy. Perhaps staving off a pink-slip from the UFC, Herbert is presented with a big opportunity against a top opponent. Meanwhile, Topuria has been simply amazing since stepping foot in the octagon. A perfect 11-0, with three wins in the UFC, Topuria has asserted his dominance on the Featherweight division. However, due to weight cut issues, Topuria is moving up to Lightweight.
As for a prediction, I have Topuria winning. Despite moving up in weight, this is a very favorable first fight in a new division. Not because Herbert isn’t worthy or good, but because the Brit lacks the necessary wrestling and grappling to fend off Topuria. Who thus far, has looked flawless in the wrestling and grappling department. Even on the feet, which isn’t Topuria’s strong suit, he not only does a good job at avoiding being hit, but slipping shots and landing with accuracy. While I can see Topuria entertaining striking, it won’t be for long. The way Moicano handled Herbert, is exactly how I see this fight playing out. So with that said, I predict that Topuria wins via submission.
135 lbs.: Jack Shore vs. Timur Valiev – We have a pivotal fight in the Bantamweight division, as Jack “Tank” Shore takes on Timur “Lucky” Valiev. A perfect 15-0, with four of the wins coming in the UFC, Shore will seek to continue his trek up the totem poll. A former Cage Warriors Champion, Shore brings vast experienced and a winning pedigree, factors that could turn him into a contender sooner than later. Meanwhile, Valiev has looked vastly better since his UFC debut. One in which he dominated, gassed out and was finished. Luckily for Valiev, the fight was overturned to a no contest. A winner of two straight, with a solid victory over Raoni Barcelos, Valiev is nearing the division’s top fifteen.
As for a prediction, I have Shore winning. While Valiev is tough out for anyone, being that he very well rounded, Shore just seems to be stronger in his strength’s than Valiev. Those strength’s being wrestling and grappling. Having completed fifteen takedowns in four fights at an accuracy of 41%, Shore has had little trouble implementing his game on opponents thus far. An evolving striker, Shore can be beaten on the feet. I’d even go as far as saying, Valiev is the better striker and can win this fight if he can keep it upright. However, Valiev has shown to have a questionable chin. Not that I think Shore is going to drop Valiev, but the Russian has been knocked down three times in three UFC fights. So if anything, Shore has a puncher’s chance should he not be able to get Valiev down. Nevertheless, I don’t think that will be the case. So with all that said, I predict that Shore will remain undefeated, winning via decision.
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125 lbs.: Luana Carolina vs. Molly McCann – We have a fun fight in the Women’s Flyweight division, as Molly “Meatball” McCann takes on Luana “Dread” Carolina. Coming off an important victory over Ji Yeon Kim, one in which halted a two-fight skid, McCann will look to find some consistency. Having won four of her last six, a spot in the top fifteen could happen with a victory here. Meanwhile, Carolina comes into this bout on a two-fight win streak. Having won three of her four fights inside the octagon, it may be time to start give Carolina the proper attention.
As for a prediction, I have McCann winning. While Carolina is a good striker and holds a significant two inch height and a seven inch reach advantage, McCann is just a dog. Relentless with pressure and high output, McCann brings it every time she steps into the octagon. Ranking top five in significant strikes per minutes, accuracy and striking defense, McCann is one of the division’s best on the feet. She’s also shown improvements in her wrestling, landing two of more takedowns in her four victories. Seeing that Carolina has good takedown defense, we may not see McCann effectively land a takedown. However, McCann should do just fine on the feet. Especially considering that she just defeated a similar opponent in Kim, who had a 10 inch reach advantage. So with that said, I predict that McCann will grit this one via decision.
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125 lbs.: Cody Durden vs. Muhammad Mokaev – We have an intriguing fight in the Bantamweight division, as UFC newcomer Muhammad “The Punisher” Mokaev takes on Cody Durden. Coming into his UFC debut with hype, Mokaev will look to prove that he is the real deal. Undefeated as a professional and in his twenty-three amateur fights, Mokaev brings forth an unmatched winning pedigree. Meanwhile, Durden has been through it all in only three UFC fights. He’s got a win, a loss and a draw. Something which may be a first in the UFC. Coming off the victory though, Durden has a chance to find some consistency.
As for a prediction, I have Mokaev winning. No offense to Durden, who is a solid wrestler, but this fight is going to be one-sided. Mokaev is a future Champion at Flyweight, possessing a well rounded game that is highlighted by incredible wrestling and grappling. A four-time IMMAF gold medalist, the Dagestani born is a mauler like fellow countrymate Khabib Nurmagomedov. Possessing fluid striking, mixing in his strikes and kicks, there is a real possibility that Mokaev can reign over both the Flyweight and Bantamweight division. Obviously super high on Mokaev, I see it very unlikely that Durden can win this. Seeing that his strength of wrestling is out the window and his striking isn’t polished, there is nothing outside of a puncher’s chance here for Durden. Also, the deeper the fights goes, the uglier it will get for Durden. So with that said, I predict that Mokaev wins this fight via submission.
145 lbs.: Makwan Amirkhani vs. Mike Grundy – We have a potential pink-slip fight in the Featherweight division, as Mike Grundy takes on Makwan “Mr. Finland” Amirkhani. Struggling to win since a successful debut, Grundy will look to put a halt to a two-fight skid. Seeing that Grundy had won nine straight prior to the losing streak, and that his most recent fight was a majority decision loss, I wouldn’t count out Grundy just yet. Meanwhile, Amirkhani has lost three consecutive fights. Once one of the hottest prospects to grace the octagon, Amirkhani is on the brink of seeing his UFC tenure run it’s course. One that started back in 2015.
As for a prediction, I have Grundy winning. While Amirkhani certainly has the grappling edge, Grundy is better everywhere else. Not by a wide margin, but Grundy has power on the feet, is physically strong and has solid wrestling abilities. Both men spam takedowns, but Grundy is the more relentless of two, attempting 38 takedowns in three fights inside the octagon. With immense strength, I don’t see Grundy having problems either fending off or taking down Amirkhani. The only real worry I have, is Amirkhani catching Grundy in a submission. Then again, Grundy has only been submitted once in his career. Back in 2015 no less. If Grundy elects to keep it standing, Amirkhani does very little in regards to output. Landing a mere 1.47 strikes per minute, and having never eclipsed more than 32 strikes in fight, Amirkhani isn’t one to outpoint anyone on the feet. Throw in his cardio issues and there is just too many holes in his game to overcome. So with that said, I predict that Grundy will win via decision.
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115 lbs.: Cory McKenna vs. Elise Reed – We have an intriguing fight in the Women’s Strawweight division, as Cory “Poppins” McKenna takes on Elise Reed. Coming off a successful debut over Kay Hansen, McKenna will look continue her rise up the Strawweight division. A winner of four straight, two of came inside the distance, McKenna heads into her second UFC appearance with momentum. Meanwhile, Reed look to capture her first UFC victory. Having lost in her UFC debut, in a tough draw against veteran Sijara Eubanks, Reed will hope to hone her skills against someone more on par with her.
As for a prediction, I have McKenna winning. An underdog in back-to-back fights, McKenna has proven that she is better than most think. Primarily a wrestler, McKenna has shown improvements in her striking. Something she will need to continue to evolve, as the upper echelon of the division will eat her up. However, at only twenty-two years old, McKenna has a long time to continue to grow. In this fight, Reed may have have the edge on the feet, but McKenna can neutralize Reed similarly to how Eubanks did. Takedowns, control time and ground-and-pound. All of which are strengths of McKenna. So with that said, I predict that McKenna wins via decision.
135 lbs.: Vince Morales vs. Nathaniel Wood – The curtain jerker comes in the Bantamweight division, as Nathaniel “The Prospect” Wood takes on Vince “Vandetta” Morales. Having not fought since October of 2020, Wood will look to shake off the rust in his return to the octagon. A loser of two of his last three, Wood comes into this fight needing to get back in win column. Seeing that he has never lost two straight in his career, history is on his side. Meanwhile, Morales comes into this fight off back-to-back wins. The most recent fight being Morales’ best performance inside the octagon, as he finished Luis Smolka in the opening round.
As for a prediction, I have Wood winning. While I do worry about the lengthy layoff, Wood brings forth a well rounded game highlighted by his high motor. Eclipsing over 100 strikes in back-to-back fights, Wood is relentless with activity from the opening bell to the end. Not just a striker, Wood has shown to be an adequate wrestler with good grappling. Two factors that could have a real impact on this fight, as Morales is a pure striker who has struggled against takedown attempts. However, Morales has shown an ability to pop up, never truly being held down for long periods of time. While I do believe Wood mixes in takedowns to sway the judges, on the feet, his high output alone should able to carry him. An output that is top ten all-time in the Bantamweight division. So with that said, I predict that Wood will win this fight via decision.
The main event comes in the Heavyweight division, as two contenders in Alexander “Drago” Volkov and Tom Aspinall clash in a pivotal fight. Checking in at 6th in the Heavyweight division, with eight wins in eleven fights inside the octagon, Volkov is truly one of the divisions best. Having won three of the last four, Volkov has to be closing in on his first title shot. Meanwhile, Aspinall has been on some tear. A winner of seven straight, four of which have come in the UFC, Aspinall has laid waste to anyone who’s stood in his path. With all eleven victories coming by stoppage, Aspinall isn’t one to need the judges to decide his fate.
As for a prediction, I have Aspinall winning. While it’s it’s hard to doubt Volkov, considering how good he is, Aspinall is just a wave of talent that has Championship potential. A heavy-handed boxer with good hand speed, Aspinall is dangerous on the feet. However, a BJJ black belt, Aspinall has a good ground game too. With heavy ground-and-pound and good submissions, Aspinall may be one of the last Heavyweight’s you want to see in top control. It won’t be easy though, as aside from Blaydes taking Volkov down fourteen times, the Russian has fended off 45 of 51 takedowns. Roughly 90%. A high output striker, who stays at a distance and uses his length to pick apart opponents, Volkov is among the division’s best on the feet. The only thing Volkov lacks is one-punch power, which Aspinall packs plenty of. In a fight that could really go either way, I’m banking on Aspinall to live up to the hype. So with that said, I have Aspinall winning via TKO.
The Co-Main event of the evening comes in the Featherweight division, as Arnold “Almighty” Allen takes on Dan “The Hangman” Hooker. Since debuting in 2015, Allen has astonishingly won all eight of his fights inside the octagon. Checking in at 7th in the Featherweight division, Allen is closing in on a number one contender’s fight. Meanwhile, Hooker is dropping back down to Featherweight. Having gone 1-3 in his last four fights, Hooker will look to rejuvenate his career back where he started it in the UFC.
As for a prediction, I have Hooker winning. While I expect this fight to be close, and I do think that Allen is underrated, this will be his stiffest test to date. Hooker is a well rounded fighter, who has exceptional kickboxing. Standing 4 inches taller, with a five inch reach advantage, Allen will need to get inside to get off his offense. Considering he likes to pressure and isn’t afraid to brawl, I don’t see that being a problem. However, Hooker does a good job keeping distance and using his length. Landing nearly five significant strikes a minute, Hooker brings forth top notch output. Something in which I believe will be a factor in swaying this fight towards him. That and his takedown defense, which is solid regardless of what Makhachev did to him. In the end, while I do believe this with be competitive, Hooker’s takedown defense, output and length will aid him to a hard fought decision victory.
We have a fun one in the Lightweight division, as Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett takes on Rodrigo “Kazula” Vargas. Coming off a sensational knockout victory in one of the best debuts to date, Pimblett returns to the octagon for an encore. A winner of three straight, Pimblett will look to keep the momentum going. Meanwhile, Vargas comes into this fight off his first UFC victory over Rong Zhu. A fight in which Vargas looked sharp, landing more than double the amount of strikes than Zhu. In a big spot over a big name, Vargas has an opportunity to boost his stock.
As for a prediction, I have Pimblett winning. While the odds are seemingly stacked against Vargas, it’s more or less because of the hype surrounding Pimblett. Not that the Brit doesn’t deserve it, but this isn’t a cakewalk of a fight. Vargas is a game opponent, who isn’t particularly strong in one area, but has skills everywhere. The one problem that will be exploited though, is Vargas’ lack of takedown defense. Already coming into the UFC with suspect takedown defense, Vargas has proven that it is in fact a weakness. In three fights, he has been taken down three times twice. Only successfully defending two takedown attempts, Vargas’ takedown defense sits at a horrific 25%. However, Vargas has some grappling skills and has only been submitted once in sixteen fights. I believe that changes though, as Pimblett will wear down Vargas and eventually submit him late in the fight.
We have an intriguing fight in the Welterweight division, as Gunnar “Gunni” Nelson takes on Takashi “Ten” Sato. Returning to the octagon for the first time since September of 2019, the once promising prospect Nelson will look to snap a two-fight skid. Having debuted in the UFC in 2012, Nelson hasn’t accomplished what many thought was possibly. However at only 33 years old, there is still time. Meanwhile, Sato steps into this fight on short notice. Having been absent from the octagon since November of 2020, Sato will look to erase his most recent defeat to Miguel Baeza and get back in the win column.
As for a prediction, I have Nelson winning. Despite falling off the face of the earth, Nelson brings forth a unique style that is highlighted by his impeccable grappling. While Sato is the better of the two on the feet, Nelson hasn’t been one to stand and strike with the majority of his opponents. In fact, and despite the layoff, Nelson is tied with Chris Lytle and Demian Maia for the most submissions in the Welterweight division at six. Completing 1.75 takedowns per minute at a 55% clip, I expect at some point, Nelson to get this fight to the mat and do what he does best. Submit people. So with that said, I predict Nelson will win this fight via submission.
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