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There is a lot of pressure on Alexander Hernandez in this fight. The way he stormed into the UFC, knocking out the now number three ranked Lightweight Beniel Dariush, to being flat out being mediocre. A loss to debutant Mike Breeden would be a backbreaker in his career, and how the UFC views him. However, Hernandez should be able to win this fight. Breeden, while a good striker, has had some trouble with wrestlers. Hernandez, being mainly a wrestler, should find success there. Another area where Hernandez is going to have success is striking. Breeden has shown signs of poor striking defense, especially against Anthony Romero, who nearly landed six significant strikes per minute on ‘Money’.
As for a prediction, I have Hernandez winning. He is the better overall fighter and with a full training camp, he should be able to impose his will on Breeden for many of the reasons I’ve already pointed out. The one aspect that has hurt Hernandez lately is cardio, but given the pace he sets, it’s expected. Against Breeden, who is stepping in on short notice, he himself could tire before Hernandez. However, I don’t see that coming into play. Instead, I see Hernandez winning via TKO.