– All 8 stoppage victories via KO/TKO – Won 2 straight – 4-0 when landing one or more takedowns
– Stopped in 2 of 5 losses (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 0-3 when absorbing 80 or more strikes
Ketlen Vieira (12-2, 6-2 UFC)
– 6 victories via stoppage (2 T/KO, 4 Sub) – 6 of the last 7 wins came via decision – 4-0 when landing 41 or more strikes
– Only stopped once via knockout – 2-2 in last 4 fights – 2-2 when landing less than 21 strikes
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Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-5, 10-4 UFC)
– 21 victories via stoppage (15 T/KO, 6 Sub) – 4 of the last 6 wins via decision – 7-1 when landing 48 or more strikes
– Stopped in 3 of 5 losses via knockout – 1-2 in the last 3 fights – 2-3 when absorbing 64 or more strikes
Michel Pereira (27-11, 5-2 UFC)
– 17 victories via stoppage (10 T/KO, 7 Sub) – Last 3 wins came via decision – Won 4 straight – 3-0 when landing 88 or more strikes
– Stopped in 2 of 11 losses (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – 1 DQ loss
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Chidi Njoukani (21-7, 1-0 UFC)
– 14 victories via stoppage (13 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 3 wins came via stoppage – Lone UFC win came in 16-seconds
– Stopped in 6 of 7 losses (3 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 5 of the stoppage losses coming in round one
Dusko Todorovic (11-2, 2-2 UFC)
– 10 victories via stoppage (7 T/KO, 3 Sub) – 7 first round stoppage wins – Only person to stop Michel Pereira via strikes – 2-0 when landing one or more takedowns
– Stopped once via knockout – 1-2 in the last 3 fights
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Polyana Viana (12-4, 3-3 UFC)
– All 12 wins via stoppage (4 T/KO, 8 Sub) – Won 2 straight – 3-0 when attempted a sub
– Only stopped once via sub – 2-3 in the last 5 – 0-2 when absorbing 40 or more strikes
Tabatha Ricci 6-1, 1-1 UFC)
– 3 victories via stoppage (1 T/KO, 2 Sub) – 2 of the last 3 wins via stoppage – 3-0 in decisions
– Lone defeat via knockout – Loss was to Manon Fiorot
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Eryk Anders (14-6, 6-6 UFC)
– 9 victories via stoppage (8 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Last 2 wins came via decision – 3-1 when landing 44 or more strikes
– Stopped in 2 of 6 losses (1 T/KO, 1 Sub) – Only 1 win in 30-months – 1-5 when absorbing 62 or more strikes
Jun Yong Park (13-5, 3-2 UFC)
– 8 victories via stoppage (5 T/KO, 3 Sub) – Last 3 wins came via decision – 3-0 when landing one or more takedowns
– Stopped in 3 of 5 losses (1 T/KO, 2 Sub) – Stopped in last 3 losses – 0-2 when absorbing 59 or more strikes
UFC Vegas 55: Holm vs. Vieira DraftKings Spreadsheet
Best Plays
9kRange
Jailton Almeida ($9,400) – Despite moving up in weight for this fight, Almeida is priced as the highest salaried fighter. Rightfully so, as the Brazilian is a pure finisher with an elite ground game. Sporting a 100% finishing rate, Almeida has won all fifteen of his victories within the first two rounds. With 10 straight wins, and experience fighting at Heavyweight, Almeida is a good bet to get the job done early.
Holly Holm ($9,100) – There is some caution in picking Holm. After all, she is averaging 94.22 in victory. A fine number, but not exactly one you’d be too pleased about at this price. However, in Holm’s most recent fight, which was 19 month’s ago, Holm scored 132.7 points. Arguably it was Holm’s best performance and a repeatable one, as she once again will be involved in another five-round fight.
8kRange
Chidi Njoukani ($8,900) – I can’t promise that Njoukani will one up the 16-second knockout victory in his UFC debut, but with his striking prowess, anything is possible. With thirteen of his twenty-one wins coming via knockout, eight of which came in round one, Njoukani may be a strong play against an aggressive striker in Dusko Todorovic
Tabatha Ricci ($8,300) – With a Judo, BJJ and Muay-Thai background, Ricci brings a versatile skillset to the octagon. Upon watching her though, it’s evident that she is a talented grappler, but needs work on the feet. Scoring 99.9 points in her most recent fight, Ricci used a blend of strikes (62), takedowns (5) and control time (6:38) to score a decision victory. As long as she can avoid Polyana Viana’s submission attempts, I wouldn’t count out a very similar outcome.
Michel Pereira ($8,200) – When Pereira first entered the octagon, he was a wild fighter. Expending all his energy within the first round, Pereira found out the hard-way that to succeed at this level, you need to fight smarter. After a 1-2 start, with one of losses coming via DQ, Pereira has strung together four straight wins. Averaging 84.38 in victory, Pereira isn’t exactly a must play. However at this cost and given the opponent, I believe he could definitely score over that mark.
Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8,000) – Although I just made the case to play Michel Pereira, Ponzinibbio is a fine play if you’re on this side of the fence. Known for his cardio and striking output, Ponzinibbio is someone you can count on in most instances. With eight victories and seven knockdowns scored in the last ten fights, Ponzinibbio can be a guy to finish fights inside the distance. However, without wrestling, should Ponzinibbio not score a knockdown or knockout, the point total could be low.
7k and Under Range
Polyana Viana ($7,900) – Not a play I’d be too invested in. However, you can’t deny that in victory, Viana is averaging 103.83 points. That’s the fifth most on the card. With excellent submission abilities, you can never count out Viana in a fight.
Dusko Todorovic ($7,500) – When Todorovic arrived in the UFC, he came with excellent momentum and potential. While the potential remains, he’s certainly been met with resistance thus far in the UFC. Lacking a strong wrestling game, Todorovic has found out that the upper-tier strikers can be difficult to implement his aggressive style on. However, let’s not discount the fact that Todorovic has a TKO win over Michel Pereira on the regional scene and is averaging 119.7 points in victory in the UFC. Two pretty solid things.
Eryk Anders ($7,200) – If anything is certain, Anders is a like a box of chocolate, you never know what you’re going to get. The best version of Anders is the athletic linebacker that hailed from the Alabama Crimson Tide, who bestows his explosion, wrestling and power on opponents. The worst version of Anders is the guy who throws single shots, lacking the necessary volume to beat high activity strikers like Elias Theodorou. With a high of 105.1 in victory and a low of 55.1, Anders is always a risky pick. At this price though, he’s not the worst guy to take a shot on.
Ketlen Vieira ($7,100) – Having recently fought in a five-round main event, Vieira should in essence, be ready to go a hard twenty-five minutes. Averaging 81.71 in victory, with a high of 88.1, Vieira may not be a bad play at this price. Just don’t go expecting her to put up anything remotely high in points.
Parker Porter ($6,800) – Not only does the lowest salaried fighter on the slate carry a three-fight win streak into a bout, but a significant weight advantage too. Averaging 94.53 in victory, with a high of 106, you could do worse that Porter at this price tag. Obviously Jailton Almeida is an exceptional talent, but many people including me thought Nick Maximov was going to have his way against Andre Petroski. That however, was not the case.
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Fades
Jonathan Martinez ($8,900) – While I believe Martinez is going to win, statistically, he hasn’t been someone you can bank on. Averaging 74 points in victory, which is the third lowest on the slate, Martinez has more often than not, put up stinkers. Only once in his six UFC wins has he scored more than 76 points, which was when he put up 114.8 on Frankie Saenz. At this price, he’s not someone I’d put stake into.
Elise Reed ($8,600) – In what I anticipate to be a back-and-forth fight, I’m not one who is boarding the Reed train. Even if she wins, there just doesn’t seem like there is an avenue for a high point total. At 8.6k, I’m looking for someone who can put upwards of 90 or more points. Something which I don’t think is plausible for Reed without a finish. Seeing that she only has two finishes over lower level competition, I wouldn’t bank on one against Sam Hughes.
The main event comes in the Women’s Bantamweight division, as the former Champion Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm takes on Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira. Returning to the octagon for the first time since October of 2020, Holm will look to continue her trek back to the title, A winner of two straight, which included an impressive performance over Irene Aldana, Holm has proven that her time at the top isn’t over yet. Meanwhile, Vieira is coming off a victory over former Champion Miesha Tate. Having lost two of three heading into that fight, Vieira proved that she still is a contender in the Bantamweight division. With a huge opportunity to defeat another former title challenger and inch closer to a title shot, I’m sure we’ll see the best version of Vieira in this fight.
As for a prediction, I have Holm winning. When Vieira defeated Kelly Faszholz, Ashlee Evans-Smith, Sara McMann and Cat Zingano in her first four UFC fights, I thought she was bound to be a future title contender and maybe even a Champion. However, since then, I’ve been unimpressed. Obviously the Irene Aldana knockout was a setback, but the three fights since have been relatively close. Unable to separate herself from opponents due to her low output and striking accuracy, Vieira has often looked to her wrestling and grappling to lead the way. While it worked in the Sijara Eubanks fight, it did not the Yana Kunitskaya fight – where she was out-landed 47-7 in strikes. Against Holm, who is one of the best strikers in the division, I don’t see Vieira having an answer. Even if she resorts to wrestling, Holm has been tough to not only take down, but hold down. Even adding wrestling to her game, Holm has landed nine takedowns in her last four fights.
A patient and cerebral striker, Holm uses her footwork to get inside and out. With excellent cardio backing her game, Holm isn’t someone who ever slows down. An aspect in which is key in this fight, as I believe due to the pace and the fact that it’s five rounds, Vieira will fade sooner than later. Seeing that Vieira absorbed 122 significant strikes against Tate and Holm tagged Aldana 154 times, I believe we are in for a repeat performance of vintage Holm. So with that said, I predict Holm will win via decision. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see a late finish!
The co-main event comes in the Welterweight division, as Santiago “Argentine Dagger” Ponzinibbio takes on Michel “Demolidor” Pereira. Coming off a close defeat to Geoff Neal, Ponzinibbio returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022. Once a contender, who had rattled off seven straight, Ponzinibbio now finds himself a loser of two of his last three. At 35 years old and with a litany of lost time due to injuries, the time is now for the former contender to get things going. Meanwhile, Pereira comes into this fight a winner of four straight. Having tempered his wildness, Pereira has molded himself into a well rounded fighter. One who isn’t afraid to blend his striking and wrestling abilities.
As for a prediction, I have Pereira winning. While this is an excellent fight and could possibly be similar to when Ponzinibbio weathered the storm and defeated Miguel Baeza, I feel that Pereira’s game has evolved past fading in fights. No longer as wild as when he entered the UFC, Pereira has vastly improved his energy output in fights. Being technical, yet still showing burst of explosion, Pereira has shown the ability to go toe-to-toe with anyone. Adding wrestling to game, Pereira has landed a takedown in each of his last six fights. The knock on Pereira has always been cardio, something which Ponzinibbio carries plenty of. However, Pereira has vastly improved in that area. In three of his last four fights, the Brazilian has landed 115 of the 287 significant strikes in round three alone. Obviously every fight is different, but Ponzinibbio seems to be on the downswing. Unfortunate too, as his cardio, volume and durability had led him to being in the Welterweight title conversation at one point. With all that said, I predict Pereira to win his fifth straight via decision.
We have an exciting fight in the Middleweight division, as Chidi “Bang Bang” Njokuani takes on Dusko “Thunder” Todorovic. Coming off an exhilarating 16-second knockout in his UFC debut, Njokuani returns to the octagon with some buzz. Having fought in several organizations for the past fourteen years, at 33 years old, Njokuani finally will get a chance to prove on the biggest platform. Meanwhile, Todorovic is coming off a much needed victory. One that halted a two-fight losing streak and showed a glimpse of the talent that Todorovic exhibited in his debut back in 2020. With an opportunity to secure a winning streak, Todorovic can put himself in position for a bigger fight next.
As for a prediction, I have Njokuani winning. Unless Todorovic plans on wrestling, I’m not too keen about his chances on the feet. Njokuani as seen in his debut, has fast hands and legitimate power. With an arsenal that includes knees, leg kicks and elbows, Njokuani is a dangerous man to stand across from. While Todorovic has shown good striking, it comes in bursts and largely within the first round. After that, his gas tank sputters and his overall activity fades. The one area where you’d think Todorovic would have a chance is his wrestling. However, Todorovic sports a 27% takedown accuracy. If he can’t find a way to get this fight to the ground, the distance management and cardio of Njokuani is going to outlast Todorovic. So with that said, I predict that Njokuani wins via TKO.
The main card spotlights a Women’s Strawweight fight, as Polyana “Dama de Ferro” Viana takes on Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci. A winner of two straight, Viana seems to have ironed out whatever hiccups that saw her lose three straight. Aiming to get back into the division’s top five, a win here could have Viana on the precipice of doing such. Meanwhile, Ricci is coming off a decision victory over Maria Oliveira. An important win, not only because it was Ricci’s first in the UFC, but a bounce back from her first professional defeat.
As for a prediction, I have Ricci winning. While this fight can go about several ways, it’s the forward movement, takedowns and top control of Ricci that I favor. Obviously Viana has a dangerous guard game and has a plethora of submissions in her arsenal, but Ricci’s ground skills are excellent and should hold up. On the feet, Ricci may not be the best striker, but she wings punches and charges forward. Something in which I believe Viana will have a hard time generating offense because of. In the end, I believe a mix of takedowns and forward pressure by Ricci will aide her to a decision victory.
We have a scrap in the Middleweight division, as Eryk “Ya Boi” Anders takes on Jun Yong “The Iron Turtle” Park. Looking to rebound from a submission defeat to Andre Muniz, Anders returns to the octagon for the first time in 2022. Having been through a rough stretch in his last four fights, with one lone win, Anders will need to start finding his stride. Otherwise, it’s possible that Anders may be stuck as a middling Middleweight with no shot at becoming a contender. Meanwhile. Park is coming off a knockout defeat to Gregory Rodrigues. A fight that was hectic throughout, but saw Park end up on the wrong side. Previous to the defeat, Park had won three straight and ten of the last eleven.
As for a prediction, I have Park winning. While this fight could go either way, I’m more confident in Park’s abilities at this stage. Anders has been a mixed bag at times, showing off power in some fights and then wrestling in others. Lacking the necessary volume, Anders has been someone that can be beaten alone on volume. In fact, Anders is 1-5 when absorbing 62 or more significant strikes. The lone win came when Anders landed 64 significant strikes, which is roughly 16.5 more strikes than his average per fifteen minutes. Given this, it’s hard siding with him regardless of his toughness and grit. Park, averaging 4.69 significant strikes per minute offers more volume and throws some solid combinations. With wrestling abilities too, Park, during his three fight win streak, landed eleven takedowns. The only concern I have, is Park’s takedown defense. Which has been problematic at times. However, Anders sports a 31% takedown accuracy and has largely used the cage to control fighters. With that said, I predict that Park will win a hard fought decision.
We have a clash in the Middleweight division, as Joseph “Ugly Man” Holmes takes on Alen Amedovski. Coming off an unsuccessful debut, Holmes returns to the octagon looking for better results in his second fight. With a full training camp in hand, it’s likely we see the version of Holmes that rattled off seven straight wins previous to the defeat. Meanwhile, Amedovski comes into this fight with some urgency. Having scuffled in back-to-back fights, Amedovski’s is searching for that illustrious first UFC victory. A defeat, could put his UFC tenure in jeopardy.
As for a prediction, I have Holmes winning. Essentially a crapshoot of a fight, Amedovski has barely showed me anything in his two appearances inside the octagon. A power striker, with an array of highlight reel knockouts, Amedovski entered the UFC with legitimate question marks. All of which have been brought to light, as his takedown defense, ground game and cardio aren’t viable enough of to fend off anyone with remotely decent wrestling. Obviously Krzysztof Jotko isn’t an easy guy to face, but in sixteen UFC fights, Amedovski is the only fighter he’s controlled for more than nine minutes. Now, Holmes being decently well rounded has shown some wrestling abilities. Especially in his fight on Dana White’s Contender series where he landed two takedowns and secured a submission finish. Something I envision happening in this fight. so with that said, I predict that Holmes will win via submission.
We have a showdown in the Heavyweight division, as Parker Porter takes on Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida. Coming into this fight on a three-fight win streak, Porter appears to be catching his stride inside the octagon. With another victory, it’s possible that Porter, at 37 year old, could crack the division’s top fifteen. Meanwhile, Almeida comes into this fight a winner of ten straight. Filling for Maxim Grishin, Almeida makes the jump up to Heavyweight. A division in which he has flirted with during his career. A pure finisher, Almeida has yet to see the scorecards in all fifteen of his victories.
As for a prediction, I have Almeida winning. Despite having to overcome a weight disadvantage in this fight, Almeida has excellent size and holds many advantages himself. While striking isn’t an area where Almeida thrives in, he has quickness, explosion and a pretty dangerous front kick. Physically strong, Almeida has little issues getting the fight to the mat. An area in which Almeida is elite, as his grappling can be overwhelming. With nine submission victories, all within the first two rounds, it is advised that opponents do everything possible to keep the fight standing against Almeida. Something which I don’t see Porter doing, even with the weight advantage. However, should Porter surprise me, he has the cardio and volume-based striking to give Almeida fits on the feet. I just don’t see that coming to fruition. So with that said, I predict that Almeida will win via TKO.
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